Any one know of a site that records FC #'s?

[JUGGERNAUT]

From last night's game:

- S. Podsednik grounded into fielder's choice, J. Crede scored, J. Uribe out at second

- S. Podsednik scored on passed ball

 

The AB will be recorded as an OUT yet it went on to generate 2R.

 

In Sag's RPG it's simply an OUT. RPG considers FP(W, IW, HBP), SB, CS, SH, SF, H, DB, TP, HR, OUTS, & K's. He get's no credit for the FC, no credit for advancing to 3B on the WP, & no credit for the PB because RPG doesn't factor in R's. Likewise he gets no credit for the RBI.

 

Likewise Sag's ONBASE doesn't include times when a player reaches on a FC. In my opinion that's a mistake but I realize it's derived from the fact that FC is recorded as an both an AB & an OUT in OBP. Whether a person reaches on a FC is a factor of how difficult it is to field the ball & how fast the runners are. Typically a play in which there is no possibility for a DP is recorded as a FC.

 

It seems to me that in terms of both OBP & ONBASE as a function of Sag's RPG a player should get credit for reaching on a FC. OBP = H+FP+RONFC. A RONFC carries more weight than a K, GO, or FO. A player should get some credit for that.

 

Pods 03 558AB (628PA) had 175 hits, & 91K. 204GB, 148FB. BIPO = 292

Pods 04 640AB (713PA) had 156 hits, & 105K. 243GB, 167FB. BIPO = 381

BIPO (ball in-play out) = AB - H - K's. GBO (Ground ball out)

Pods had GB rates of 58% (03), & 59% (04). GBO 03 = 169, GBO 04 = 225

 

How many of those 169 & 225 ground ball outs led to Pods reaching on a FC?

How many of those RONFC's resulted in a team R? All the stats neglect this.

RON splits don't help because they don't split along GB vs FB. At best you can whittle it down by applying the GB rates to RON.

Pods RON 03 181AB - 60H - 20K = 101 * .58 = 59 GBO

Pods RON 04 195AB - 43H - 33K = 119 * .59 = 70 GBO

 

How many of those led to an FC or a team R?

In his first 20AB Pods has 1 FC. That's a rate of 26 over 560AB. With his talent as a base stealer & runner that's 26 more scoring opportunities requiring no more than a hard hit double (if he doens't steal 2nd) or a hard hit single (if he does steal 2nd).

 

Let's just say for sake of argument that 1/2 of his GBO's in a RON situation are RONFC's. Probably not-uncommon for the base stealing leaders. Applying that to his OBP (1- (BIPO- GBOfc + K)/PA) you get

Pods 03 OBPfc = 1-356/628 = 433 vs Pods 03 OBP (379)

Pods 04 OBPfc = 1-451/713 = 367 vs Pods 04 OBP (313)

 

I'm reaching a lot here because I'm trying to approx how many FC's Pods has each year. I'm certainly not going to advertise this as a real stat or even a close assessment of his play but I want you to think about what you've seen of his play so far & ask this question:

 

Has he looked like a player with a 318 OBP or a player w a 363 OBPfc? I feel the OBPfc is a better measure for him.

[GoodAsGould]

i can never read through your posts... 2 stat heavy and that junk... simplify it down

[JUGGERNAUT]

I hear ya. It was a work in progress. I'll try to simplify it.

 

OBP (On Base %) & Sagarin's RPG stats do NOT include AB's when a player reaches on a fielder's choice. Such AB's are simply recorded as an OUT. I feel that doesn't give an accurate measure of a player like Pods whose presence on the base pads has the highest value of any WSox player.

 

I came up with a new stat OBPfc which includes these FC AB's. I then calculated Pods OBPfc's for 03, 04, & now 05. Approximating his FC's for 03, & 04.

 

Pods 03 OBPfc 433 vs Pods 03 OBP (379)

Pods 04 OBPfc 367 vs Pods 04 OBP (313)

Pods 04 OBPfc 363 vs Pods 05 OBP (318)

 

Now it's a question of which stat you feel better reflects his worth. I feel it's the OBPfc.

[hi8is]

funny thing is jugger...

the diffrence in point value... that is,

OBPfc - OBP... for 2003: 54 points

for 2004: 54 points

 

kinda m00t dont ya think?

[JUGGERNAUT]

funny thing is jugger...

the diffrence in point value... that is,

OBPfc - OBP... for 2003: 54 points

for 2004: 54 points

 

kinda m00t dont ya think?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Well that's only because I approximated his FC's for 03 & 04. If I had real numbers they would likely be different. But I think a 54 pt jump for player like Pods is significant because he represents scoring opportunities when he gets on. He can score with a DB or with a single when he steals a base. Both are likely to happen. That's something that can't be said for most of the players in the league.