Our Leadoff Hitter

[max power]

We have no major league lead off man, second baseman, left or center fielder. Other than that, we are ready

We have a young, talented player in left field, second base, and center field(not quite as talented). I bet you complain about how old this team is too. Frankly I'm tired of this s***.

Edited December 27, 2007 by max power

[bmags]

Yes. Every year in the minors. 60-80 points above.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/O/Jerry-Owens.shtml

 

thank you. I hope we can get lucky and owens has pods rookie season.

[RME JICO]

Which is why signing Pods, for more money and more injury risk, would be silly.

Correct.

[TheBigHurt]

We have no major league lead off man, second baseman, left or center fielder. Other than that, we are ready

 

Scary, considering it was practically the same most of last year.

 

We have a young, talented player in left field, second base, and center field(not quite as talented). I bet you complain about how old this team is too. Frankly I'm tired of this s***.

 

A talented player in left? Then why can't I remember who he even is? I'm not being an ass, I'm serious.

 

Richar is not fully developed yet from what I can tell. He's not quite ML yet.

 

Jerry Owens? I'm fairly impressed with him but not to the point where he seems like the Pods of early '05.

Edited December 28, 2007 by TheBigHurt

[eickevinmorris]

Scary, considering it was practically the same most of last year.

A talented player in left? Then why can't I remember who he even is? I'm not being an ass, I'm serious.

 

Richar is not fully developed yet from what I can tell. He's not quite ML yet.

 

Jerry Owens? I'm fairly impressed with him but not to the point where he seems like the Pods of early '05.

You forgetting Carlos Quentin is much more reflective of your intellect than Carlos' talent.

[JohnCangelosi]

Owens wasn't that bad last season. Everyone looks to his September stats as a positive sign, but he seemed to show improvement starting in late July.

 

Since 7-28-07:

 

52 G, 214 AB, 20 BB, 20 SB

 

.290/.350/.701

 

If he had that line for a season, that would be a decent leadoff hitter. Also, projecting his other stats, he would have around 60+ SB as well.

 

What is ironic is Podsednik had almost an identical line in 2005:

 

.291/.351/.700 with 59 SB

Looks good to me! If Owens could do that, and we could get something for Crede in ST, we could be somewhat dangerous in 2008.

[santo=dorf]

Owens wasn't that bad last season. Everyone looks to his September stats as a positive sign, but he seemed to show improvement starting in late July.

 

Since 7-28-07:

 

52 G, 214 AB, 20 BB, 20 SB

 

.290/.350/.701

 

If he had that line for a season, that would be a decent leadoff hitter. Also, projecting his other stats, he would have around 60+ SB as well.

 

What is ironic is Podsednik had almost an identical line in 2005:

 

.291/.351/.700 with 59 SB

Give me a f***ing break.

 

Why did you pick 7/28 as a starting point? Did you just throw a dart?

How exactly did he improve starting in late July if he actually experienced a dip in August as evident by his pathetic line of .229/.302/.295/.597?

 

 

Again, the White Sox's great 2005 was due to the starting pitching. Podsednik did have an affect on this team, but it was in the first half when he had a line of .294/.369/.344

 

[RME JICO]

Give me a f***ing break.

 

Why did you pick 7/28 as a starting point? Did you just throw a dart?

How exactly did he improve starting in late July if he actually experienced a dip in August as evident by his pathetic line of .229/.302/.295/.597?

 

Again, the White Sox's great 2005 was due to the starting pitching. Podsednik did have an affect on this team, but it was in the first half when he had a line of .294/.369/.344

Give me a f*** break?

 

It is just my opinion. If you watched the games, I thought the game on 7/28 is where he started to play better. He hit his only HR of the season, which ended up being the only scoring for the Sox that game. From there he had a 9 game hitting streak, and had a hit in 13 out of his next 14 games with 5 multi-hit games.

 

He was a freakin rookie, what do you expect, a straight line of improvement? Of course he is going to go into slumps. The last time I checked every MLB'er goes thru them. I could direct you to his September line: .340/.396/.371/.767, but it is too small of a sample size, just like August.

 

If I threw a dart I would pick July 6th: AB 298, BA .285 and OBP .343

Edited December 28, 2007 by RME JICO

[santo=dorf]

Picking random dates, or even worse, looking for dates where the data changes significantly is a stupid way to try and evaluate a player.

 

The fact is Jerry Owens had one good month last year, and it was in September. Josh Fogg was really good in September 2001, So was Haeger out of the pen in Septmeber of 2006.

[YASNY]

Picking random dates, or even worse, looking for dates where the data changes significantly is a stupid way to try and evaluate a player.

 

The fact is Jerry Owens had one good month last year, and it was in September. Josh Fogg was really good in September 2001, So was Haeger out of the pen in Septmeber of 2006.

 

So, you are picking the random date of Sept 1?

[santo=dorf]

So, you are picking the random date of Sept 1?

No, I'm using designated time periods (beginning of the month-end of the month.) I'm looking at his season in sections, not picking a start point and running with it through the end of the year.

[YASNY]

No, I'm using designated time periods (beginning of the month-end of the month.) I'm looking at his season in sections, not picking a start point and running with it through the end of the year.

 

Hey, it happens to work for you. Still seems like a random date to me. Just as random as the date selections you criticized.

[Vance Law]

The older Ray Durham is a better lead off hitter than what we have had the past 2 years.

 

Not last year when he was perhaps the worst regular in all of baseball. And oops, $7,000,000.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/durhara01.shtml

[max power]

What did we get for ray in 2002?

[santo=dorf]

Hey, it happens to work for you. Still seems like a random date to me. Just as random as the date selections you criticized.

Just trying to make an argument for the sake of it I guess.

 

Go to any database site for baseball stats, and see if there is a simple option to sort stats from one time period to another. I honestly don't know of too many, but I know plenty that do monthly splits. Monthly splits are certainly not "random."

 

EDIT: September 1st is also a significant date because that is when teams can expand their rosters and players who normally do not get much exposure get more playing time thus making the competition at a completely different level.

Edited December 29, 2007 by santo=dorf

[Vance Law]

What did we get for ray in 2002?

Is this a trick question?

 

Jon Adkins

[max power]

Is this a trick question?

 

Jon Adkins

No, I just didn't remember.

[Heads22]

A big difference is we are asking Jerry to play CF. We had Pods in LF.

[RME JICO]

Just trying to make an argument for the sake of it I guess.

 

Go to any database site for baseball stats, and see if there is a simple option to sort stats from one time period to another. I honestly don't know of too many, but I know plenty that do monthly splits. Monthly splits are certainly not "random."

 

EDIT: September 1st is also a significant date because that is when teams can expand their rosters and players who normally do not get much exposure get more playing time thus making the competition at a completely different level.

 

Baseball Musings has a great database, here is Owens link: http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Pla...y?PlayerID=6002

 

That is why I did not use September 1st exclusively. The other dates had a much larger sample size after an initial adjustment period.

[Balta1701]

Here's my summary.

 

Is Owens going to be the best leadoff hitter in baseball next year? No. Simply impossible due to his low slugging.

 

But, can JO give us something valuable? Perhaps. His minor league numbers and his major league numbers suggest it's at least possible for him to put up a .290/.350/.350, roughly where Podsednik was in 05 pre-injury, and over a full season with those numbers he'd probably steal 70 bases on top of it with a good (80%) clip. If he could put up those numbers, he would be a very effective leadoff hitter. He would be on base in front of Thome a lot, he'd annoy the Hell out of pitchers, he'd pair well with Cabrera, and he'd guarantee a lot of fastballs for our 2 and 3 hitters.

 

Is that Owens ceiling? No, but it's close to it. He could probably raise the average some and have his OBP go up with that, and maybe steal a few more bases than that. That's probably close to his slugging ceiling though.

 

Defensively, he's not a star, but in CF, he's adequate. He's a step down from Rowand/Anderson, but he makes up for errors with good closing speed and can cover some ground. Adequate, not great, weak with the arm but unless Anderson starts hitting that's the best we've got.

 

So, that's the positive side. What's the downside? Well, September could well have been a fluke. He could well come out next year and look like a faster version of the 06-07 Podsednik with less power. Maybe he hits a home run or two, and he hits something like .240 or .250. In that case, he probably loses that leadoff job after a couple months, and we are left basically where we are now; without a CF unless Anderson/Sweeney turn it around.

 

No one here can guarantee me that Owens is going to suck next year or that September was a fluke, just like I can't guarantee that he'll give me that .350 OBP I want from him next year. If he does that, then we're in good shape, if not then we're looking for a replacement again next offseason. Either way, for $400k, I think he's a fair gamble out there, as if he were to succeed, even minimally, he solves both our CF problem and our Leadoff hitter problem for several years in one fell swoop.

[TheBigHurt]

You forgetting Carlos Quentin is much more reflective of your intellect than Carlos' talent.

 

Just my memory. I wasn't being an ass. I honestly didn't remember for a minute. Don't think I don't think anything of him, that's not the case.

[bighurt4life]

We've already got a soft hitting lefty who can lead off for us. If we're going to sign someone to platoon with Jerry we need to look at someone who can hit leftys

[Vance Law]

Here's my summary.

 

Is Owens going to be the best leadoff hitter in baseball next year? No. Simply impossible due to his low slugging.

 

But, can JO give us something valuable? Perhaps. His minor league numbers and his major league numbers suggest it's at least possible for him to put up a .290/.350/.350, roughly where Podsednik was in 05 pre-injury, and over a full season with those numbers he'd probably steal 70 bases on top of it with a good (80%) clip. If he could put up those numbers, he would be a very effective leadoff hitter. He would be on base in front of Thome a lot, he'd annoy the Hell out of pitchers, he'd pair well with Cabrera, and he'd guarantee a lot of fastballs for our 2 and 3 hitters.

 

Is that Owens ceiling? No, but it's close to it. He could probably raise the average some and have his OBP go up with that, and maybe steal a few more bases than that. That's probably close to his slugging ceiling though.

 

Defensively, he's not a star, but in CF, he's adequate. He's a step down from Rowand/Anderson, but he makes up for errors with good closing speed and can cover some ground. Adequate, not great, weak with the arm but unless Anderson starts hitting that's the best we've got.

 

So, that's the positive side. What's the downside? Well, September could well have been a fluke. He could well come out next year and look like a faster version of the 06-07 Podsednik with less power. Maybe he hits a home run or two, and he hits something like .240 or .250. In that case, he probably loses that leadoff job after a couple months, and we are left basically where we are now; without a CF unless Anderson/Sweeney turn it around.

 

No one here can guarantee me that Owens is going to suck next year or that September was a fluke, just like I can't guarantee that he'll give me that .350 OBP I want from him next year. If he does that, then we're in good shape, if not then we're looking for a replacement again next offseason. Either way, for $400k, I think he's a fair gamble out there, as if he were to succeed, even minimally, he solves both our CF problem and our Leadoff hitter problem for several years in one fell swoop.

The Bill James Handbook projects .274/.340/.340 for him next year. Not so far off.