One side of me is happy for Iranians, they probably deserve this. The other is not ready for an armed insurrection in a country of 120 million that happens to be right next to one of the United States' most vested strategic interests in the world, not to mention the history the two have. Here's hoping the process drags out another year or so, at least enough time for us to get ourselves out of Iraq and let the new government there secure the border. Not that I'm calling for the CIA to slow down the activists via some of their dubious means.

 

Hell, Mossad would probably do it for us the keep Hezbollah from having another safe haven.

Edited February 11, 201016 yr by DukeNukeEm

these are nonviolent protests and will continue to be. So nobody is really taking arms against their country. A potential revolution will not be bloodless, but it's not going to be a civil war.

these are nonviolent protests and will continue to be. So nobody is really taking arms against their country. A potential revolution will not be bloodless, but it's not going to be a civil war.

I'll stop short of predicting civil war, but if the Ayatollah is actually deposed there will be a huge power vacuum both in governing a state that huge and drafting a new constitution. A lot of parties and interests are going to want a seat at the table like Hezbollah. Hezbollah is not compatible with a new democracy that we want to be pro-western so we have to keep them out. That could mean a host of problems, from war between Lebanon and Israel to US troops staying in Iraq a few more years to secure the border.

 

See what I'm kinda getting at here? It's great for the Iranian people to finally have a real democracy within reach, but destabilizing a country that big in the region is going to have a ton of side effects.

Edited February 12, 201016 yr by DukeNukeEm

I'll stop short of predicting civil war, but if the Ayatollah is actually deposed there will be a huge power vacuum both in governing a state that huge and drafting a new constitution.

Typically when those sorts of things happen in the world, the people who wind up taking power are the army leaders.