from baseball prospectus on the foulke trade

[baggio202]

pretty much nails this trade down...

 

Billy Beane rides again: Billy Koch, Proven Closer, has been wrapped up with two minor leaguers we haven't heard about yet and traded to the White Sox for Keith Foulke, Mark Johnson, Joe Valentine, and cash.

 

Keith Foulke rules. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise -- the line that he "was a closer who lost his job for most of the year" overlooks entirely the fact that he was taken out of the role not because he ####, but because he had a couple of bad outings in a row and his manager was stupid. He's been one of baseball's best relievers since 1999 (and he threw 105 innings that year!). Koch... Koch hasn't.

 

I'd love to see the A's grant Foulke his wish and see if he can start. Foulke's wanted to start for years and he's got the stuff to do it. He's a guy who fell into a closer label and hasn't been able to get it off since, not a natural closer type like Koch, a guy with a 100-mph heater and not a lot else. If Beane can get a Derek Lowe v2002-style performance out of Foulke he'd have baseball's best rotation by far next year, even if it read Hudson-Zito-Mulder-Foulke-Bower. Even if he doesn't, Foulke's going to be a significant upgrade on Koch in the closer role, which is the safe decision.

 

Mark Johnson's a guy with good minor league lines that hasn't done much in his service time in the bigs, in no small part because the White Sox spend most of their time complaining about what he's not -- a crappy hitter like Josh Paul. In Oakland, he's likely to share catching duties with Ramon Hernandez, and Johnson may well develop some of the promise he's flashed in the past. It's a case where the change in scenery may make all the difference in the path his career takes. At his best, Mark Johnson's not a top-flight catcher. But he could easily be a quality upgrade on the cheap.

 

Foulke's under contract for $6M in 2003. Koch is arb-eligible, and will make more than $4M, win or lose, with the cash in the deal probably making up most of the difference. The worst part of it is, Koch will also be arb-eligible the following season, and he'll cost even more than that then, assuming the Sox don't go off the deep end and given him a multi-year deal. As if the A's needed anything else in their favor on this deal, they can try to leverage something where they allow Foulke to start (something he's wanted to do for years) in exchange for his signing a sweetheart contract after 2003, or they can let him go as a free agent and take the resurrected draft pick compensation for him.

 

We'll get to read about the rest of the package in Transaction Analysis, but for now, this is a great deal for the A's. If they decide to gamble on starting Foulke, it could wind up being the greatest swindle this off-season.

[Spiff]

"Keith Foulke rules. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise -- the line that he "was a closer who lost his job for most of the year" overlooks entirely the fact that he was taken out of the role not because he ####, but because he had a couple of bad outings in a row and his manager was stupid. He's been one of baseball's best relievers since 1999 (and he threw 105 innings that year!). Koch... Koch hasn't."

 

Thank you!

[CubKilla]

I'm with you Baggs. This deal, to me at least, has all the ear-marks of the Ritchie trade. Like last year, everyone is telling me that we got the better end of this deal. And believe me, I took NO pleasure in telling Sox fans come July that I told you so. Given KW's track record, every trade he makes is a "wait and see" to me. RPS and Guido tried to sell me on Koch last night. I hope he's right and I hope I'm wrong..... for once

[Molto]

let me say this. the people who thinks this trade sucks, or who thinks this trade is great really aren't looking at this at all.

 

Look at Koch and look at Foulke

Three things enter the picture: how the guy has pitched in his career, where will he be in a few years, and money/contract status.

 

Foulke has put up better numbers. Koch may have been the better close last year, but Foulke has been considered the best reliever outside of Rivera for a few years now.

 

HOWEVER, if you look at the two, Koch is clearly the more talented of the two. he has more pitches and once he learns how to control his fastball, which will come with time, he will be an elite closer. I could see him being like a Percival. Foulke, despite being good, I don't think has the ability Koch has and doesn't even want to start.

 

Finally, contract. salary is identical considering the Sox gave cash in it, BUT Koch will be here for 3 years, while Foulke will be gone after this coming year.

 

I don't think this trade has made us better in the immediate future, but Koch is someone who will only get better and will become a top closer in teh game.

 

once again, it depends on the minor leaguers. it looks to be two solid ones, which will then make this trade even.

 

you guys are comparing this trade based on what baseballprospectus says? c'mon. everyone is baseball is soo fond of Beane that every trade will work out for him. this trade wasn't a steal for either side. plus, you guys are comparing Foulke and Koch by the numbers. look at ability and Koch wins pretty easily.

 

this has nothing to do with Foulke not getting saves by the way. Foulke is gonna put up big numbers next year, there is no doubt about that.

[Spiff]

i think foulke does want to start

 

i hate this trade regardless, if they absolutely had to unload foulke they should have gotten something better.

[Molto]

you mean better as in a starting pitcher? position player?

[CubKilla]

Originally posted by Molto

you mean better as in a starting pitcher? position player? 

 

I'd be for dealing Foulke for a proven starter. Fact of the matter is, this team didn't need a closer as much as it needed a SP. Alot of the posters here were for dealing Foulke in a package that would include a proven SP and seeing what Marte could do as a closer this year. But, in dealing for Koch, you now have a power closer and a power set up man..... assuming Marte wins the set up man job (which he should..... who else is there?). I'll take power and finesse (or vice versa) over power and power anyday..... changes things up.

[MurcieOne]

Another reason why Koch is better then foulke..... Keith = 5 games under .500 in his career/ Koch = 5 games over .500

 

Whats that do you say? W/L doesnt matter for relievers..... we it does so shad up. when a great closer blows a save, he shuts em down and perserves a the tie. looked like Keith would blow a save and give up sometimes.

[Chisoxfn]

Originally posted by Spiff

i think foulke does want to start

 

i hate this trade regardless, if they absolutely had to unload foulke they should have gotten something better.

 

I think Mario meant to say that Koch is happy closing, something Foulke is not happy.

[baggio202]

ill hit on the points i disagree with strongly

 

 

 

molto said "HOWEVER, if you look at the two, Koch is clearly the more talented of the two. he has more pitches and once he learns how to control his fastball, which will come with time, he will be an elite closer. I could see him being like a Percival. Foulke, despite being good, I don't think has the ability Koch has and doesn't even want to start."

 

koch is clearly the more talented of the two???...how???...because he has a better fastball??...well im sure you would agree foulke has the better change...does this mean koch has more talent then trevor hoffmann and mariano rivera??....or how about mark buehrle??

 

koch doesnt have more pitches..he throws a fastball and very rarely , a curve...thats about it..kieth throws 2 types of fastballs , a change and occasionally a slider..

 

control his fastball???...he has been in the league 4 years now and hasnt improved much on his control yet...

 

molto said " contract. salary is identical considering the Sox gave cash in it, BUT Koch will be here for 3 years, while Foulke will be gone after this coming year. "

 

what makes you think koch will be here for three more years???...he will go to arbitration this year and make over 4 million...if he has the great year youre predicting he will go to arbitration again and make upwards of 8 million...more than foulke would cost us...its a no win situation for you...if koch stinks, then you are wrong about how good he is..if youre right about how good he is then he will be on the plane out of town after next year because we would never take him to arbitration..the fact that we own his rights means nothing..

 

molto said "I don't think this trade has made us better in the immediate future, but Koch is someone who will only get better and will become a top closer in teh game."

 

doesnt make us better for the immediate future??...gee im shocked there...the perpetual building for the future that never arrives continues

 

finally, molto said "you guys are comparing this trade based on what baseballprospectus says? c'mon. everyone is baseball is soo fond of Beane that every trade will work out for him. this trade wasn't a steal for either side. plus, you guys are comparing Foulke and Koch by the numbers. look at ability and Koch wins pretty easily. "

 

there is a good reason why everyone in baseball loves billy beane...because he sees things in player that other GM's dont...because he became GM of the year and built oakland into a perennial playoff team on a shoestring budget by taking guys like KW to the cleaners..trade after trade after trade...but all of a sudden billy beane lost it and a moron like KW is gonna reverse that trend??..highly unlikely

[Chisoxfn]

The Sox are looking to give him a contract extension. I'm guessing it will be 3 or 4 years avg something like 5 mill a year.

[baggio202]

molto..or you can look at it this way...oakland is in the same boat we are financially...so why would billy beane trade koch for foulke knowing he only had foulke for one year and koch for 3...because billy beane is smart enough to know he doesnt have koch for 3 years because he cant afford him...so he trades him to us because between the two..foulke's the better pitcher and he gets a catcher for free...

 

KW just showed his ignorance again by saying he likes the idea of owning koch for 3 more years...bulls***...the only time a club owns a player is in his first 3 years.,..the player has no rights then...koch owns us...because he can go to arbitration and force the sox to pay him or trade him...he will be traded next year if he has a good year because the sox will not be able to afford him...so who owns who..

 

again, billy beane has a plan and knows how to execute it...KW is friggen clueless...he cant even figure out the arbitration process..

 

really think koch will be here for three years???.,..wanna bet??

[baggio202]

Originally posted by Chisoxfn

The Sox are looking to give him a contract extension. I'm guessing it will be 3 or 4 years avg something like 5 mill a year.

 

they are gonna give 16 - 20 million to koch????...then KW is really dumber then i thought...lock up a guy that already had TJ surgery and faltered the 2nd half of last year for 3-4 years???...

 

if thats the case then we could have gave that money to foulke after next year and still have mark johnson and joe valentine....and its much less of a gamble...so again, how do we come out ahead on this deal???

 

btw..koch is coming off a season where his IP increased 17 % from his previous high..you really want to give the guy a 4 year deal when he is coming off his career high for IP??...history says its not a good idea...because they usually struggle the next season..

 

or i could just say this....billy beane vrs kenny williams...who wins???

[Molto]

have you noticed how great mark johnson as become? Beane gets him and he is dubbed this great backup catcher. hell, a year ago ESPN couldn't even produce the right picture of Johnson on his own profile page, now he's this great backup catcher. hell, I wish Beane would sign me, I'm sure I can an easy cy young a canididate then.

 

the trade was Foulke for Koch. Mark Johnson was dealt for Niel Cotte (or whoever it will be) so that is what I meant by baseball prospectus and other articles.

 

there was actually one who ripped the deal and noted the two minor leaguers we are getting are nobody's? how can two guys that have not be identified automatically be considered nobody's? people are labeling the two minor leaugers are PTBNL. when we deal Valentine, everyone cries like babies that we traded a prospect, but when we acquire two minor league guys, everyone covers their eyes and ears and just focus on the main guy we got and the guys we gave up.

 

I don't consider Koch better than Foulke, Rivera or Hoffman, but I think Koch is on the verge of being an elite closer in teh league. as opposed to Foulke who is too concerned with starting and will be a FA after next year.

 

I'm simply saying Koch and Foulke are similar but Koch has more upside, you are saying that Foulke is great and Koch is average. please be reasonable in your analysis. Koch is a lot better than you think and is similar to Foulke.

 

when I say it won't help us in the immediate future, it doesn't mean we have gotten worse for now (actually I think we may have improved slightly) it means that we have a SET closer for a few years. and as jason said, KW is looking to sign him, which will end up being for 6 mil a year or so.

 

I don't think anyone should hate nor love this trade, so I don't just have a problem with the critics. Koch and Foulke was an even trade. the other two minor leaguers is what will determine the deal. let's wait for them.

 

no need in comparing Foulke and Koch because some people like Koch and others like Foulke (excluding the numbers).

[baggio202]

how can you say koch and foulke is an even trade???....foulke averages more IP per season...less hits and walks per ip , better era , more strike outs per IP pitched (which it really amazed me to find out koch is not a strike out pitcher) and a much better WHIP...save pct is almost the same (very slight edge to foulke)...the only thing koch wins in is total saves and thats because he has had more chances..

 

the numbers prove they are not similiar pitchers...

 

what y ou really have here in koch supporters is "the grass is greener on the other side of the fence" syndrome...we rag on foulke because we have seen all his screw ups...and some of them came at very inopportune times..billy koch's screw ups are just as bad if not worse then foulke's..but we dont get to witness those first hand and they are not us personally so they seem so bad..

 

just look at the numbers over the last 4 seasons...its not even close..foulke wins in every catagory that you use to rate a closer...

[Cerbaho-WG]

Want to know why this is a good trade?

 

Koch wants the f***ing ball in the 9th. Foulke looks like a deer in the headlights when the 9th rolls around.

 

Add to the fact Foulke can't pitch in tie games worth s***.

[Spiff]

Originally posted by baggio202

how can you say koch and foulke is an even trade???....foulke averages more IP per season...less hits and walks per ip , better era , more strike outs per IP pitched (which it really amazed me to find out koch is not a strike out pitcher) and a much better WHIP...save pct is almost the same (very slight edge to foulke)...the only thing koch wins in is total saves and thats because he has had more chances..

 

the numbers prove they are not similiar pitchers...

 

what you really have here in koch supporters is "the grass is greener on the other side of the fence" syndrome...we rag on foulke because we have seen all his screw ups...and some of them came at very inopportune times..billy koch's screw ups are just as bad if not worse then foulke's..but we dont get to witness those first hand and they are not us personally so they seem so bad..

 

just look at the numbers over the last 4 seasons...its not even close..foulke wins in every catagory that you use to rate a closer...

 

yep, yep, and yep.

 

but we'll get to witness a few, i think.

 

Edit:

 

found this in The Mercury News, somewhat relevant, "Koch led the league with 84 appearances but probably will be remembered most for yielding three runs in the ninth inning of a 5-4 loss in the deciding Game 5 of the playoff series against Minnesota."

 

woo woo I am so excited.

 

Also, the A's aren't gonna be able to re-sign Ray, I dunno if that is old news to anyone.

[doubleM23]

Originally posted by Spiff

i think foulke does want to start

 

i hate this trade regardless, if they absolutely had to unload foulke they should have gotten something better.

 

Spiff and me agreeing?

 

Holy shnikeys, Batman!