I realize the importance has dwindled.....but who do we think takes it this year? Bachmann? Romney?

 

The better question is....when I wander over there....will I be able to secure some free Godfathers pizza from the Cain campaign?

Here's the most recent likely voter poll I've seen.

Bachmann R 29.0%, Romney R 16.0%, Cain R 8.0%, Gingrich R 5.0%, Paul R 5.0%, Pawlenty R 8.0%, Santorum R 3.0%

That's a solid Bachmann advantage for only a month away from this thing. Especially since Romney isn't contesting Iowa hard and probably won't spend a lot of money to bring people in for this straw poll.

It seems to me Iowa is much less relevant for Repubs than Democrats. Bachmann winning would certainly legitimize her as "one of the front runners", but NH is the big one. Also, hasn't Romney mostly conceded Iowa already?

It seems to me Iowa is much less relevant for Repubs than Democrats. Bachmann winning would certainly legitimize her as "one of the front runners", but NH is the big one. Also, hasn't Romney mostly conceded Iowa already?

It's less relevant...because the supposed frontrunner seemingly believes he can't win there but will own the state next to the one he was governor in.

 

Really, you can minimize the impact/bounce that either of them would get from a win. "Oh, it's just Iowa, she'll only win one state, Huckabee won Iowa last time". "Oh, it's just N.H., they were going to go for Romney anyway since he was the governor in Mass."

 

This might be a Super Tuesday setup. Your guess is as good as mine who will have the advantage coming into places like South Carolina. Nevada's probably Romney (Mormons), but I think Florida might still be in there as well, and they elected a governor more evil than Bachmann could ever strive to be.

It's less relevant...because the supposed frontrunner seemingly believes he can't win there but will own the state next to the one he was governor in.

 

Really, you can minimize the impact/bounce that either of them would get from a win. "Oh, it's just Iowa, she'll only win one state, Huckabee won Iowa last time". "Oh, it's just N.H., they were going to go for Romney anyway since he was the governor in Mass.".

 

I'm not trying to minimize early wins, but Iowa in Republican primaries recently (obviously small sample) seems to choose candidates that have less of a chance in the majority of the states. The opposite of Iowa for dems, which sort of shows they can win more conservative bellweather states.