Thought this would be interesting.

 

If we look at the states where the same party has won, each and every presidential election since 1992, (so 1992, 96, 2000, 2004 and 2008) and assume the same party wins again in 2012, here are the current electoral college totals.

 

Obama 242 (28 shy)

Republican 102 (168 shy)

 

The following 19 states have shifted over the past 5 elections.

NV, MT, AZ, CO, NM, IA, MO, AR, LA, IN, OH, KY, TN, GA, FL, NC, VA, WV and NH.

 

I think it would be a fair assumption that a few of these states, (AR, LA, KY, TN and WV) that were won with Clinton's southern strategy, are off the table. So lets add those to the Republican column.

 

So now its 242-140.

 

It also seems like the Obama administration is not heavily planning on winning IN again, and MT is probably off the table too. Let's throw those to the Republicans as well.

 

Now its 242-154.

 

At this 242-154 level, there are 94 winning combinations for Obama, 47 for the Republicans and 12 combinations that would create a tie.

 

With the remaining states listed as undecideds, the one state, that mathematically, the Republicans must win is FL.

 

Fun program to play with. www.270towin.com

 

Moved to the Buster.

 

One thing to note is that there are efforts to change some states, such as PA, from winner-takes-all to district-by-district votes and change others, like Nebraska, from district-by-district to winner-takes-all. The determination of who is trying to pass these measures and who they would benefit is left as an exercise to the reader.

One thing to note is that there are efforts to change some states, such as PA, from winner-takes-all to district-by-district votes and change others, like Nebraska, from district-by-district to winner-takes-all. The determination of who is trying to pass these measures and who they would benefit is left as an exercise to the reader.

 

Would those be in effect before the next election? I would think they would push those off to start in 2016?

there's no reason that these states couldn't change their methods of selecting Electors for the 2012 election.

Thought this would be interesting.

 

If we look at the states where the same party has won, each and every presidential election since 1992, (so 1992, 96, 2000, 2004 and 2008) and assume the same party wins again in 2012, here are the current electoral college totals.

 

Obama 242 (28 shy)

Republican 102 (168 shy)

 

The following 19 states have shifted over the past 5 elections.

NV, MT, AZ, CO, NM, IA, MO, AR, LA, IN, OH, KY, TN, GA, FL, NC, VA, WV and NH.

 

I think it would be a fair assumption that a few of these states, (AR, LA, KY, TN and WV) that were won with Clinton's southern strategy, are off the table. So lets add those to the Republican column.

 

So now its 242-140.

 

It also seems like the Obama administration is not heavily planning on winning IN again, and MT is probably off the table too. Let's throw those to the Republicans as well.

 

Now its 242-154.

 

At this 242-154 level, there are 94 winning combinations for Obama, 47 for the Republicans and 12 combinations that would create a tie.

 

With the remaining states listed as undecideds, the one state, that mathematically, the Republicans must win is FL.

 

Fun program to play with. www.270towin.com

I think AZ is off the table for Obama, same for GA and NC.

 

I would say IN and NV are very long shots - if he gets those it means the economy is in huge recovery mode, and he wins in any scenario.

 

Last I saw, PA won't be splitting. But NE does, although I think if it is a regional split, GOP gets the whole state anyway.

 

So Obama effectively needs to get 28 EV's from some combination of:

 

CO (9), NM (5), IA (6), OH (18), FL (29), VA (13), and NH (4)

 

Obviously, Florida is the brass ring. And I think VA will be awfully tough, so if the GOP wins FL... the only way for him to win is to win Ohio. Vice versa, if the GOP takes OH, then Obama needs to take FL.

 

Basically, again, it comes down to OH and FL. If either candidate take both, none of the rest of it matters. If it is 1-1, then Obama likely wins (if the 1 he wins is FL, then he absolutely wins).

 

We can't get rid of the electoral college for Presidential voting soon enough.

 

 

Last I saw, PA won't be splitting.

 

The PA state Congress and the governorship are controlled by the GOP. They have very recently proposed plans to change PA's electoral distribution, and the governor supports it.

 

Change proposed for state's electoral vote process

 

 

 

 

Just for fun, I did two maps of my current predictions on this site. My assumptions are... the economy is slightly better (say, high 8's to around 9 UE common as an analog), but still not gaining much steam. On that...

 

Obama 273, Romney 265

 

Obama 317, Perry 221

 

If the economy gets markedly worse, then Romney can beat Obama. Perry still probably can't.

 

If the economy actually surprises high during 2012, and shows substantial growth, then neither have a chance.

 

My prediction

 

GOP 312 - Obama 226

Edited September 16, 201114 yr by mr_genius

My prediction

 

GOP 312 - Obama 226

Which candidate for the GOP in that scenario? Or do you think it will be the same for either?

 

My prediction

 

GOP 312 - Obama 226

Great, let's vote in the party that largely has created this economic mess...their help the rich get richer and screw the working class policies is what got us in this f***ed up situation to begin with.f*** Reagan and his legacy...

 

I hate the GOP.

Edited September 16, 201114 yr by MexSoxFan#1

Which candidate for the GOP in that scenario? Or do you think it will be the same for either?

 

all GOP candidates

Great, let's vote in the party that largely has created this economic mess...their help the rich get richer and screw the working class policies is what got us in this f***ed up situation to begin with.f*** Reagan and his legacy...

 

I hate the GOP.

 

hater

Great, let's vote in the party that largely has created this economic mess...their help the rich get richer and screw the working class policies is what got us in this f***ed up situation to begin with.f*** Reagan and his legacy...

 

I hate the GOP.

Tell us how you really feel.

 

Every time I see this thread title, I think "the mathematics of wanton burrito meals"