Bullpen

[witesoxfan]

The Brewers traded or are close to trading for Papelbon today, and it got me wondering "why?" Maybe they think he's legitimately better than anybody else and he will justify the cost, or maybe they think he is going to help reduce bullpen meltdowns. So I perused the stats on FanGraphs and noticed a little something here that we all saw last year and perhaps couldn't put a finger on just WHAT it was exactly.

 

FanGraphs tracks statistics called Shutdowns and Meltdowns on their win probability section. These correlate to an appearance by a relief pitcher who either increases his team's chances of winning by 6% (WPA of 0.06; this is a Shutdown) or decreases his team's chances of winning by 6% (WPA of -0.06; this is a Meltdown).

 

Here were the Sox rankings in both of these categories as a team:

 

Shutdowns: 114 (8th fewest)

Meltdowns: 91 (2nd most)

 

In looking at these, I don't see a team needing a bullpen with shutdown type guys to be successful - the Tigers had the fewest with 98, the Braves and Athletics had 112, the Blue Jays, 113, the Mariners 115, and the Giants 119. However, I do think this CAN allude to high level talent in the bullpen, as the notable teams at the top were the Angels, Orioles, Indians, Cardinals, Pirates, Yankees, and Phillies (and yes, the Phillies are notable, because they have some incredibly talented arms in their bullpen, though they've traded a couple of those away this offseason (assuming the Papelbon trade goes through)). So this is nice to have, but I don't necessarily see this as something that is vital.

 

However, the Sox 2nd most Meltdowns was topped only by the Rockies with 103. None of the 10 teams that allowed the most made the playoffs, with the Indians and Yankees coming closest at 85 and 84 wins respectively. The 10 teams who had the fewest meltdowns? The Brewers, Tigers, Dodgers, Nationals, Athletics, Phillies, Giants, Padres, Mariners and Royals. The Brewers almost made the playoffs last year, the Phillies, as previously discussed, do have a ton of talent, the Padres seemingly always have a good bullpen, and the Mariners finished 1 game out of a Wild Card spot.

 

There's nothing concrete that will help us determine which pitchers will or will not shutdown or meltdown other than accumulating as many good relievers as you realistically can, but it leads some light into possible bullpen constructions. Really, it's nice having guys who can be shutdown relievers, but the most important part of a relievers job is to not screw the pooch. If they can keep everything under control and not blow up, they've done their job.

 

Sorry, wanted to include a link for funsies: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

[LDF]

The Brewers traded or are close to trading for Papelbon today, and it got me wondering "why?" Maybe they think he's legitimately better than anybody else and he will justify the cost, or maybe they think he is going to help reduce bullpen meltdowns. So I perused the stats on FanGraphs and noticed a little something here that we all saw last year and perhaps couldn't put a finger on just WHAT it was exactly.

 

FanGraphs tracks statistics called Shutdowns and Meltdowns on their win probability section. These correlate to an appearance by a relief pitcher who either increases his team's chances of winning by 6% (WPA of 0.06; this is a Shutdown) or decreases his team's chances of winning by 6% (WPA of -0.06; this is a Meltdown).

 

Here were the Sox rankings in both of these categories as a team:

 

Shutdowns: 114 (8th fewest)

Meltdowns: 91 (2nd most)

 

In looking at these, I don't see a team needing a bullpen with shutdown type guys to be successful - the Tigers had the fewest with 98, the Braves and Athletics had 112, the Blue Jays, 113, the Mariners 115, and the Giants 119. However, I do think this CAN allude to high level talent in the bullpen, as the notable teams at the top were the Angels, Orioles, Indians, Cardinals, Pirates, Yankees, and Phillies (and yes, the Phillies are notable, because they have some incredibly talented arms in their bullpen, though they've traded a couple of those away this offseason (assuming the Papelbon trade goes through)). So this is nice to have, but I don't necessarily see this as something that is vital.

 

However, the Sox 2nd most Meltdowns was topped only by the Rockies with 103. None of the 10 teams that allowed the most made the playoffs, with the Indians and Yankees coming closest at 85 and 84 wins respectively. The 10 teams who had the fewest meltdowns? The Brewers, Tigers, Dodgers, Nationals, Athletics, Phillies, Giants, Padres, Mariners and Royals. The Brewers almost made the playoffs last year, the Phillies, as previously discussed, do have a ton of talent, the Padres seemingly always have a good bullpen, and the Mariners finished 1 game out of a Wild Card spot.

 

There's nothing concrete that will help us determine which pitchers will or will not shutdown or meltdown other than accumulating as many good relievers as you realistically can, but it leads some light into possible bullpen constructions. Really, it's nice having guys who can be shutdown relievers, but the most important part of a relievers job is to not screw the pooch. If they can keep everything under control and not blow up, they've done their job.

 

Sorry, wanted to include a link for funsies: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

very impressive and well written, meaning for someone like me who doesn't know the advance stats.

 

thanks

 

edit ~~~ with the new pen that wa assembled by Hahn, how are those stats and using last yr stats, compiled and compared to last yr ratings.

Edited January 24, 2015 by LDF

[LittleHurt05]

My question would be what has to happen for a 'shutdown ' to occur? Does a scoreless inning in a one run game increase the WPA by .06? How about in a two run game ? Wade Davis striking out the side on 9 pitches or Zach Duke getting 3 flyouts has the same effect on win probability. That stat could depend more on situations the relievers are brought in.

 

The meltdown stat obviously makes sense, if your bullpen can't hold leads, you are gonna lose.

[LDF]

My question would be what has to happen for a 'shutdown ' to occur? Does a scoreless inning in a one run game increase the WPA by .06? How about in a two run game ? Wade Davis striking out the side on 9 pitches or Zach Duke getting 3 flyouts has the same effect on win probability. That stat could depend more on situations the relievers are brought in.

 

The meltdown stat obviously makes sense, if your bullpen can't hold leads, you are gonna lose.

 

this whole new part of baseball is soooo great, i wish i had these stats when i was younger. i probably would have drove all around nuts. keep up with these stats, great reading.

[witesoxfan]

My question would be what has to happen for a 'shutdown ' to occur? Does a scoreless inning in a one run game increase the WPA by .06? How about in a two run game ? Wade Davis striking out the side on 9 pitches or Zach Duke getting 3 flyouts has the same effect on win probability. That stat could depend more on situations the relievers are brought in.

 

The meltdown stat obviously makes sense, if your bullpen can't hold leads, you are gonna lose.

 

Right, and even in the OP, I didn't discuss enough. It's still a very vague statistic in that it doesn't discuss how these things happen and doesn't preclude other scenarios where a pitcher totally screws up or does the entirely wrong thing and the defense saves their ass, which is why I wanted to say that "we can't predict these things" and "previous numbers do not indicate that we CAN predict these things." You could have a guy that puts up a flukish great SD/MD percentage, but if he's garbage doing it, you still want to see him put up other numbers (and vice versa).

 

Because yes, if a pitcher comes in with his team, runner on 3rd, 1 out, the idea is for him to get a strikeout, but if he gets a flyball and an outfielder makes a great throw against the tagging guy, it counts the same as him getting two outs all by himself, when, really, he screwed up.

 

It's not a perfect statistic - there is no such thing - but I thought I'd point it out and validate the point many on here made all winter in that "yes, it was a 73 win team, but how much of that was based on a weakened roster in September? and how much of that was based on a bullpen that seemingly blew more games than it saved?"

 

---

 

As an aside that is also connected to this, I once again want to say that if Jesse Crain is good and healthy, he is going to be one of the 7 best relievers on this team and he is going to make the roster.

[oldsox]

Unlike last year, Sox actually have a tradable surplus in the pen, if they were inclined to trade for a prospect or three.

[LDF]

Unlike last year, Sox actually have a tradable surplus in the pen, if they were inclined to trade for a prospect or three.

trading with the team still being thin with prospects, has to be done with a real good plan on what they, the sox want to accomplish. i have more confidence in the pen with what the sox have assemble, and what is in the minors, than in the starting rotation.