Balta1701

Yeah, weird how that started in June of 2021. I wonder what changed to make spin rates on his pitches and movement on his pitches different starting on or about June 15 of 2021. This is a totally relevant example because no one can possibly point me to a rule change that dramatically affected Lucas Giolito's pitches that started on June 15, 2021.

Hmm, do I like this trade more or less if they're 4 or 5 years away from contention? They didn't go all-in to get win now guys, that's positive. But if they are 4-5 years away from contending, then in terms of a Cease trade, that reduces the impact that would have happened if they kept Cease and he got hurt. Out of the pitchers in this deal you have to figure 1 gets hurt anyway. Yeah, if you think they're 5 years away from competing, then you should hold Cease until the deadline and try to maximize his value with a great first half. I've talked myself into it while writing this.

While this is fair...they're not obviously better off than they were on the day Rick Hahn was fired. The payroll space was cleared by Rick Hahn, most of the supplementary talent in the system was acquired by Rick Hahn, their #4-ish prospect was acquired by Getz for a guy that Hahn was unwilling to trade. They clearly had payroll space for 2024 and 2025 thanks to the work of Rick Hahn. They haven't done the typical Hahn offseason thing and made things worse, and Getz deserves credit for not doing obviously stupid things. But in terms of payroll, they've spent comparatively a lot of money on Fedde, Lopez, Maldonado, Pillar, Moustakas, DeJong, and their bullpen. It's not long term commitments, but it's like $20 million+ assuming the obvious vetz make the team, which is at least half of a 2019Hahn. Literally every bit of success from here on out depends on the handful of new development guys they brought in being better than the last ones, and Grifol and Katz being suddenly good at developing big league players, because there's nothing here without that.

Fine but then we can't give Getz credit for his hard working culture for bringing in white guys who played for the Royals.

Giolito's fastball last year as his arm was breaking down still averaged 93.1 mph.

I like Keith Law but here's why Keith Law sucks. That's...kinda like this trade? It's not terrible but here's a laundry list of obvious reasons why it sucks.

1. As of right now, I think the White Sox got more value for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly than they got for Cease. They got more potential and far-away depth for Cease, so this could turn around if their development guys are good, but the Lynn return is way closer to the big leagues and there's a lot of value in that. The market was absolutely better in July last year than what this trade returned. 2. The other part is what you expect from Dylan Cease. If Dylan Cease has an ERA of 2.2 for the Padres in July, and they're out of the race at the time, the Padres will get more trading Cease than they gave up now. If Dylan Cease has an ERA of 4.1 in July, then this would be a high value trade for him. Cease's 2023 dramatically reduced his value, and the White Sox weren't willing to risk another bad season against the value of a reward. The Padres were.

Your argument is way too close to Keith Law hates the White Sox. You have rejected his analysis to say that this guy is a hard worker because you don't like Keith Law. Bull.

I'd call that Karma for Santos.

I get it, a B- is fine. They got depth and the key 2 guys are A-ball players so there's some ceiling available. Cease wasn't good last year and wasn't worth all that much. B- is an acceptance of this being the best you could do with how bad Cease was last year and his unreliable career.

Keith Law literally said Zavala looks uninterested and sloppy.

I don't think Thorpe is that safe at all. What do you consider safe, a #3/#4 innings eater? Thorpe may have a good shot at that, he threw 140 innings last year, that's fine. With that fastball you can't say he's safely an upper part of the rotation starter until he actually turns into one. But if he comes up and his control and off speed stuff doesn't play against big league hitters, his ceiling is out of the league in a couple years. How is a guy who is throwing under 90 in spring training safe?

Neither does Kopech's control, but I didn't bring it up.

HEre's Santana's 17 strikeout game, I saw 5 on fastballs. They were all between 92-95, with only 1 at 95. But yes, 93 in 2005 is 96 now.

You'd think after Dylan Cease dropped from an ERA of 2 to an ERA of 4.5 when his fastball dropped by less than 1 mph that Soxtalk would understand the importance of every single mph of one's fastball, but nah, Soxtalk says give me the guy who can't bring that fastball. Equal and fair, right?

Projecting what they will look like at the trade deadline depends on 2 things: 1. Development. If Eder has an ERA of 6 and a couple guys get hurt, this system is way worse. If Gonzalez makes no progress, they look a lot worse. If Schultz's arm limits him, they look way worse. If Montgomery has any injuries this year or looks like he did at AA last year, they look way worse. 2. MLB player accomplishments. As of right now they have 1 tradable piece in Robert. If Robert gets hurt, as he has each of the last 3 years, they have no major trade pieces. It is possible that someone like Fedde could turn into one, but I would not say at all they "Should be top 10". 3. Who is called up early in the year? the last GM loved rushing guys and turning them into bullpen guys. Will this GM? If Nastrini is in the big leagues, or Thorpe is in the big leagues, this also affects system rankings. They're going to add a draft pick who should slot into the back half of the top 100, but it's not a #1 pick. One or two injuries makes things look worse.

yeah, they took less overall because they wanted whatever pitching they could get.

I'm not able to judge his pluses or minuses based on his performance in the Yankees A-ball team, that's just too much of a stretch either way. What we have now is solid stats and peripherals, but clearly with a questionable fastball. How that translates is a big question, you could have a #2 guy or you could have a #6 guy. Garland could ramp his 4 seamer up to the mid 90s. He just didn't pitch that way, he threw a low 90s sinker as his main pitch, aside from one fairly important game.

It SURE feels like this was a deal you only make if the #1 thing you care about is ensuring pitching comes back.

There are currently 0 A voters to hear from. For reference I was in with C. Better than I thought it would be at this time but unimpressive compared to holding him.

I have no choice but to give him a chance because there's nothing I can do to change things, but the way things went down justifies skepticism until there is a substantial amount of evidence that I shouldn't be.

I fully agree. I wanted him fired after 2013. That doesn't mean I automatically give credit to and express confidence in his replacement.

It will take a lot of successful development for this to actually make the White Sox improve. Hard to insist that they just got better today. They did get deeper.

At least now we can say that Law hates the White Sox again.

"I've got no problem with our development" is a statement about the White Sox that is going to make me go grab the next whiskey. Mostly, you're talking about Hahn's work there, and that is some of the worst development possible. They took a clear loaded #1 system and turned it into a playoff appearance. The system produced 1 playoff appearance, broke down, then 2 years later produced a 61 win roster. It is hard to imagine worse development. The hope is that the guys who were just hired will be a significant improvement, particularly on the pitching front. But so far, this is totally hope. They could be the best ever, but skepticism is warranted.