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Kyler Murray to NFL?

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I don't see this Murray issue as especially emblematic of MLB labor issues. NFL prospects contribute right away and high picks get a pretty large amount of guaranteed money even if they flame out immediately. It is very rare, as we all know, for a MLB draftee to get to the majors sooner than a couple years post-draft (and many who do don't stay). MLB draft picks are so risky and have such delayed gratification that they just aren't worth that much to the selecting teams. High NFL draft picks have a very high expected output and it typically takes very little time to see return on the investment. If you're going to be a first round NFL pick, it's always going to be financially safer to go to the NFL. Once you get past the first two NFL rounds, the calculus can get trickier for high MLB picks.

What has been lost on the MLB side is how hard it has become for players to get free agent contracts, which used to be the best talking point against the NFL system since they are fully guaranteed. But with steroids leaving the game and teams hyper-focused on cheap control of young players, only a lucky few get 3+ year free agent deals in their careers and before that, they are no better off than NFLers (besides a better average pay I would guess).

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1 hour ago, Jake said:

I don't see this Murray issue as especially emblematic of MLB labor issues. NFL prospects contribute right away and high picks get a pretty large amount of guaranteed money even if they flame out immediately. It is very rare, as we all know, for a MLB draftee to get to the majors sooner than a couple years post-draft (and many who do don't stay). MLB draft picks are so risky and have such delayed gratification that they just aren't worth that much to the selecting teams. High NFL draft picks have a very high expected output and it typically takes very little time to see return on the investment. If you're going to be a first round NFL pick, it's always going to be financially safer to go to the NFL. Once you get past the first two NFL rounds, the calculus can get trickier for high MLB picks.

What has been lost on the MLB side is how hard it has become for players to get free agent contracts, which used to be the best talking point against the NFL system since they are fully guaranteed. But with steroids leaving the game and teams hyper-focused on cheap control of young players, only a lucky few get 3+ year free agent deals in their careers and before that, they are no better off than NFLers (besides a better average pay I would guess).

Right, Murray just happens to play the one position that has a better value prop than MLB.

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