vilehoopster

I looked WAR up also and also saw this quote. But, as I see it, wouldn't a random guy from AAA have even a lower save percentage than 64%. Does that further help my argument that Colome should have an even higher WAR?

Okay, now this is a statement I can work with and really reply to. I assume inning descrepancy means that a closer pitches less innings than a starter, so does that mean he has less value?? To a degree that makes sense. But on the other hand, a closer pitches more critical innings when a manager is pulling out all the stops to score, shouldn't that add to a closer's WAR? I have no idea what "leaverage isn't worked in" means. Please explain that. Then maybe I can debate that. But I know what "team value" means. And Colome has saved 21 of the Sox's 45 wins this year. That sounds like a lot of "team value" to me. Should his WAR be even higher because he has had fewer save opportunities. I would say yes.

Still short; still witty, still doesn't show where I'm wrong. If replacement in WAR means average, than my idea of WAR for closers makes more sense than what is ever being used now. Quit being short, funny, and insulting and explain where my logic is wrong. I can't debate an insult.

Because I questioned a stat that few understand (including me) but everyone quotes, people comment with quick, unsupported witty comments, but so what. Where is my logic wrong. Is my definition of replacement wrong? Are my stats wrong? Was my math wrong. Tell where I'm wrong in my logic instead of just dismissing my statement with an insult.

Also, when you use WAR to define replacement level when it comes to batting, is the WAR only figured out comparing only clean-up hitters or only lead-off hitters. No, WAR is figured out versus all hitters when trying to figure out value of wins added to a team. So replacement or average to figure out WAR for a closer should be against all pitchers who get a save opportunity.

Obviously that's not how it's calulated or else Colome wouldn't have a WAR of 1.7. "whereas middle relievers and setup men are not, but they get a good chunk of the blown saves when they give up a lead." -- Right, these middle relievers are average or else they would be closers. But still their stats contribute to the MLB average, which would be what a "replacement" pitcher would be. Colome has won 6.86 more wins than an average replacement pitcher.

Okay, I did my research on this. Explain to me where my math or logic is wrong. First, WAR is wins above replacement. Now, the way I understand that stat, "replacement" is what an average player would acheive in that spot or position or whatever, and WAR measures how many more wins this player gets for his team above an average player at that position. In a way, WAR measures how much a player is above average? Correct because "replacement" means an average player at that position, wins for your team above how many wins for your team an average player would help your team win? (That got rather long, sorry; but follow my logic.) Okay, Colomen has a WAR right now of 1.7 (I found it on two different sources). Colome has a save percentage of 95.5%. He has saved 21 or 22 save opportunties. Now this is where I have a problem. I also looked this up: the MLB average for saves is 64.24%. Therefore, by my logic, "replacement" for Colome would be someone who saves 64.24% of his save opportunities. So, putting that 64.24% (as replacement) in 22 save opportunities would be only 14.13 saves. An average closer, "replacement", would only have saved 14 of the 21 games Colome has saved. So, when looking at that, shouldn't Colome have a WAR of (his 21 saves minus the league average of 14.13 saves in 22 SOs) therefore 21 - 14.13 = 6.86. Right now, Colome's wins above an average relief pitcher/ closer is 6.86. Why isn't his WAR 6.86???? This makes no sense to me. That makes a lot more sense than his present WAR or 1.7. I also know that WAR figures in the team stats, like how the field or a pitcher's team defense would affect his value to the team. Well, if you look at that, remember that Colome's one blown save is because of a bonehead defensive play when Rondon threw home instead of the obvious throw to 1st to get the out. So, look at my logic and my math. Why doesn't Colome have a WAR of 6.86?

No reason to block them . . . unless the guy blocking them is better than the people being blocked. That's how the idea of being blocked works. No wait, he needs to be dumped; he has a bad wOBA or whatever it is.

Okay, wOBA, that's a completely new one for me, never, never heard of that. Okay, true his OPS is rather stinky right now, but he has been in the slump since the all-star break, just like the rest of the team. I would bet big money that his OPS rank at the all-star break and by the end of the season will be much better than 17th. Again, I will take home runs and RBIS and all-star apprearances over wOBA. Can baseball find anymore silly stats to obsess with? It's borderline hilarious.

I can’t wait to see Abreu starting at 1st base next spring and in the spring of 2021. I have feeling my “can’t wait” is much more likely than yours.

It was posted a month or so ago, the one I’m referencing.

Or I can value the 3 rbis he got in the one win at TB, and how he came within 3 feet of saving the Sox’s terrible performance last night.

Plus, how much value does a “projected” war have. I project Abreu’s war in 2022 as 7.5. That barely has less validity than this stat thing you show.

I value all-star appearances, RBIs, and total bases over war. Ever since about a month ago or so when someone posted that Colome had a war of 0.5 (with all his saves) while Herrera had a war of 0.7 (with all his gas can pitching), war has had almost no credibility with me.

Plus, he’s 2 and 0 versus the Cubs; that buys a lot, A LOT of forgiveness from me.

Sorry to give you guys my usual comment of don’t trade or flip him, but . . . You guys all saying dump/flip him, you do realize he’s our 2nd or 3rd best starter? You realize that, right? I am far from in love with Nova but I would rather see him than the other options, whatever that may be. As a guy who spent about $225 dollars to take his family of 4 to a game on Fathers Day, only to see Despaige (however his name is spelled) pitch and who felt a little cheated by the White Sox that day (down 7 to 1 after three innings), I really think for the sake of the fans (especially ticket buying fans), the Sox should keep one of their few competent pitchers rather than dump him for some prospect who will never make the majors. And I know it’s still a rebuild, but We’re still tuning in and still buying tickets, and I think the FO should still keep trying to win rather win than trading one of our better starters in pique of frustration.

What are you talking about? Your answer here seems to imply, what imply, clearly states that hitting home runs hurt a team’s chances of winning. I’m not sure if you know this, but hitting home runs and doubles score runs and here’s what you don’t seem to get, but you need runs to win. Have you watched the last two Sox games? Runs and the extra base hits that score runs are kind of important. Not sure if you get that concept. That must be why every team is stressing launch angles and sacrificing strike outs and batting averages for home runs. There must be some way those pesky home runs help winning.

1st of all you don’t like Abreu. That is a so obvious from this entire thread. Really. You’d rather give Reed a shot, REED? so you’d send an all-star off for somebody’s low level prospects. This entire thread is total BS. I also want to be prepared for 2021, but I want to prepare for next week and next month. I want to prepare for tonight’s game. I say it over and over: I like it when the Sox win. Sox wins make me happy and Sox loses make me pissy. But when I read stuff like this on here, I think I am a minority. You guys would rather watch some low A level prospect improve his batting average from .247 to .253 than see the Sox have a winning home stand. I don’t begin to understand what motivates a thread like this. It’s easier for me to believe this thread was started by an Indian’s or Royal’s fan trying to undermine the Sox than a real White Sox fan. That this thread shows up the night after Abreu had an RBI double and a 2-run homer shows you have no sense of timing or Abreu’s value. One good thing is that I just read MLB.com’s list of top 20 trade rumors and, thankfully, No White Sox were mentioned, not Abreu or Colome. Thank goodness the Sox front office seems to like winning more than whatever alternative the guys agreeing with this thread seem to enjoy.

Really, I don’t know what this means. Did you leave out a word. Not being snarky.

Wow again. The guy saves the game two nights ago. Now he’s a bum. Trade him too.

Wow, working hard not to give Abreu credit. What is that? His 70th RBI? You’re right, no bat speed. Trade him.

He might be. But if you went just by the comments on this board, it's much more likely he is the most under-valued player in recent history.

Ahhhhh, the cryptic gif as a reply.

Not gonna happen; keeping them both for 2020 and beyond.

Nope, in fact, I have always felt that Jeter is the most overrated shortstop and maybe even the most overrated player in the history of baseball. If it weren't for the fact that he was a Yankee . . .