South Side Hit Men
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Posts posted by South Side Hit Men
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14 minutes ago, almagest said:
Combine his negative WAR along with his personal issues that showed up on field and it's not surprising to me at all, considering guys with personal issues who are or could be good (Bauer & Clevinger) are also still without jobs.
Not accurate to compare the Bauer, Clevinger situations with Tim.
Dozens if not hundreds of players in every professional sport leagues have marital issues / infidelities.
Far less have domestic violence accusations with filed criminal complaints.
Tim’s on field production was very strong until the injuries and some would say the marital issues of the last season and a half.
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6 hours ago, MysterySource5000 said:
The competitive bar has by far moved past $100 million contracts.
The competitive bar is now $200 million contracts.
And the Sox record contract is 37.5% of the competitive bar.
Consistent with the soon to be 1/44 (2.27%) probability of a White Sox winning a World Series under Jerry at the end of this season.
The Sox would have had over 50% better odds winning a second World Series if the World Series was determined via lottery ball selection instead of on field performance.
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5 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:
Very interesting comments from the Vegas Mayor:
"I personally think they've gotta figure out a way to stay in Oakland and make their dream come true."
She’s one hundred percent on point, except Oakland’s first choice was the Wild Wild West site, not the Tropicana site.
That said, Clark County is responsible for this site, which is outside Las Vegas city limits, so she really has no power beyond persuading others. It is the equivalent of Mayor Johnson opining on the Arlington Heights’ Bears stadium beyond the impact in Chicago.
In Vegas (or more accurately Clark County), they were initially offered the Rio site on Flamingo west of I-15 which makes the most sense in terms of the maximizing development acreage and lowering traffic congestion. Oakland of course rejected it, just like they have far better arrangements to stay in California.
Oakland brought the Wild Wild West site to Carson City, on Tropicana but like the Rio also west of I-15 / the Strip. This would have given them the second highest real estate development acreage. However, it is owned by the anti-union scumbag Station’s Casinos, so the collective unions were able to block that deal in the Nevada assembly.
The Tropicana site was given as a CV last minute alternative before the end of the Spring Session after the WWW site was defeated. It took a lot of arm twisting to barely pass this revised bill. It is a very bad parcel for all parties involved.
- First the Strip is already an absolute cluster F , even before you factor in Formula One which will continue to devastate traffic and the overall Strip experience over the next nine years.
- Second, this is the worst site for the A’s (even worse than building on the Coliseum land) as there is no wiggle room with the adjacent airport. They have no renderings at this point, because you can’t fit a retractable roof with height and space limitations on the site. And there is little additional room for additional resort development.
Ultimately I see the current plan either being changed or rescinded by the assembly, moved to a better location within Vegas, or falling apart due to Fisher’s incompetence and lack of securing $1.1B to build the bad stadium plan.
Would say the teachers union (isolated vs. the trade unions who want it) is a longer shot to block it in the courts, or get a referendum on the ballot for voters to block funding in the upcoming 2024 general election.
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1 hour ago, Quin said:
I also want to point out that using Mena's ranking in the Sox system is silly.
1) We've learned harder than any org that that means nothing.
2) If we're going purely off Pipeline, which to be fair, hasn't updated their Top 30s for 2024, Fletcher ranks lower than Mena did.
I believe Mena occupied the same spot or was within one of Avery Weems on BP’s Top 10 WS Prospect Rankings before he was dealt with the headliner Dane Dunning for four months of solid Lance Lynn.
I liked at least the thought process in the Seattle trade, didn’t like the age difference or Fletcher player make up in the Arizona trade.
All just want consistency and prioritizing improving the 2026/2027 & beyond White Sox as Getz’ first priority, with improving 2024/2025 with (hopefully savvy / salvageable) FA / Waiver low end trade pickups when he can as secondary.
Their $130M (could be less when the dust settles) payroll and trade of their closer indicates a team with no inclination to compete this year.
Stabilize the team and attendance until the Sox are ready to compete on the field. Continue to improve the FO and player development, the latter ironic in Getz’ case.
And no forever position player roster of 13 David Ecksteins, no matter what Jerry and Tony say or demand. It’s just as bad as a roster of 13 Eloys.
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PAC Files Suit Against Nevada Challenging A’s Stadium Funding
QuoteA political action committee backed by the Nevada State Education Association’s Strong Public Schools has filed a lawsuit against the state and its governor, Joe Lombardo. The teachers union is seeking to overturn last summer’s law approving $380MM in public funding for the construction of a new park on the Vegas Strip.....
There’s nothing to suggest the legal challenge represents a serious threat to the A’s relocation efforts at this point. The organization continues to evaluate options for a temporary home city covering the 2025-27 seasons with their lease at the Oakland Coliseum expiring at the end of this year. The A’s are hopeful of having a home facility constructed in Vegas in time for the ’28 campaign.
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Don’t have Twitter (Nitter is still dead), so don’t know if this is quoting an Mike Axisa tweet (he covers the Yankees and MLB via CBS Sports) or if there is even 1% truth to this, but it would make sense to move Crochet this year if you can get a decent return.
Wonder what the Sox could get in a Crochet and or Cease + Crochet deal.
The time to stretch out Crochet, if it was ever possible, was in 2021-2022 before he was injured. With three years left of control, if he does he builds up enough arm strength over two years, he has one year left of control before FA, unless he stays in AAA for a season plus.
Would think he is more valuable as a trade chip for a team looking for a LH reliever at this stage if they are trying to cash him in.
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1 hour ago, WestEddy said:
30 HRs from DeJong, Maldonado and Lopez.
That’s likely as they had 30 last year.
Maldonado has power, had more four more home runs than Grandal over his four years with the White Sox, and 17 more over the past two seasons (30 vs. 13).
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1 hour ago, SpringfieldFan said:
Back in the 70's my dad would park us on the neighborhood streets several blocks south of old Comiskey (it was allowed back then). He would turn down the kids on the block who offered to "watch" our car for 5 bucks and we would hoof it all the way to and back from the game.
Obviously still alive today to tell about it.
We also parked by the school on Princeton which is now the Air Force Academy High School. Stop in McCuddy's and then off to the game. Have a much further walk to the new stadium either west of Halsted or north of 29th. Only paid twice to park at the 42 MLB stadiums i have visited (need new Atlanta, Miami and Texas to complete the current 30 stadiums), or took public transportation:
- Yankee Stadium 3.0 - Limited street parking, didn't want to deal with vandalized / stolen car having to drive to Connecticut after the night game.
- Royals Stadium - Arrived near game time after driving from an afternoon game at Busch Stadium, and didn't have time to figure out street parking or walking to / from stadium pre phone internet with their enormous parking lot cut off by I-70.
Always parked on near Cullerton & 18th/19th west of the tracks for Soldier Field, Warren for Hawks games after we learned and west of Lincoln Ave for Cubs games. Many games at both Detroit Tigers and both Milwaukee Brewers stadiums as well over the years and everywhere else. Never had an issue anywhere.
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22 minutes ago, WestEddy said:
Every time some dour guy shakes his tiny elf fist in the air and demands I be unhappy about a Sox move, only makes me like it more.
Ironic choice of words considering the acquisition.
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There are opt outs and a club option which can land the deal anywhere between $148,777,777 and $377,777,777 depending on how long between 7-14 years Witt ultimately stays. $288.7M is guaranteed if Bobby doesn't opt out between seasons 7-9 of the deal, with an additional $89M available if the club exercises their club option after 2034.
QuoteThe pact can be extend to 14 years via a three-year option, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Passan relays some more details in a full piece at ESPN, including that Witt can opt out of the contract after the seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth years of the deal. The three-year option is worth $89MM, which would extend the deal to $377.7MM over 14 years if triggered.
Salary Breakdown
- Signing Bonus $7,777,777
- 2024 $2,000,000
- 2025 $7,000,000
- 2026 $13,000,000
- 2027 $19,000,000
- 2028 $30,000,000
- 2029 $35,000,000
- 2030 $35,000,000 (Witt can opt out after this season)
- 2031 $35,000,000 (Witt can opt out after this season)
- 2032 $35,000,000 (Witt can opt out after this season)
- 2033 $35,000,000
- 2034 $35,000,000
- 2035 $33,000,000 (If club exercises 3 year $89M option)
- 2036 $28,000,000 (If club exercises 3 year $89M option)
- 2037 $28,000,000 (If club exercises 3 year $89M option)
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https://www.si.com/mlb/athletics/news/the-biggest-contract-as-owner-john-fisher-has-handed-out
Largest All Time Athletics contract: Eric Chavez $66M in 2004 (signed by prior ownership, about $100M inflation adjusted). The White Sox $75M Benintendi deal is dead last in terms of 2024 dollars.
Coco Crisp (2010-2016) was the highest paid player by John Fisher at $53.25M, though this was earned over multiple contracts.
Billy Butler ($30M) was the largest contract Fisher signed and honored. Yoenis Cespedes ($32M) and Khris Davis ($33.5M) signed larger contracts, but both were traded before the deals expired, and Khris’ contract was reduced by about 1/3 or $10.5M due to the 102 game owner lockout in 2020.
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1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:
Who from the offensive side that they lost was any good tho? Burger and Andrus (all value on the defense side) were the only positive WAR players they lost. And those guys are far from well rounded players at this point.
TA and Yaz were god awful and well below replacement. All the fringy and fill in players were terrible.
Even on the pitching side, everyone they lost was either literally awful, or decent but not spectular by any means (Gio, Clev, Reylo).
I don't think this team is going to win 80 games or anything, but the defensive improvements will be significant and will help the pitching staff a lot. I expect better seasons from Beni, Yoan and Eloy, with the latter two having by far the most critical season of their career for their future earnings. AV should see some improvement.
I am going with 70 wins right now.
I thought 70ish wins was likely until the Santos trade. Can see them possibly trading Cease before OD after Snell and Montgomery are signed if there are any teams still trying to improve, including a contender SP suffering a major injury.
Its fine, because W/L isn’t the priority or measuring stick for success in 2024 or 2025. Getz and the FO need to focus on:
- Continued growth by Sox prospects
- Improved player development
- A solid draft and remaining international signings
- Prospect return for Cease
- Improvement by Vaughn, Sosa, Colas and the young off-season acquisitions.
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33 minutes ago, fathom said:
Yes, “expected to return as the closer”
I’m assuming the team let Crochet say what he wanted about wanting to stretch out this season and did not contradict him, at least publicly. Was hard to envision him ever building up enough arm strength and remain healthy beyond 50-60 innings.
If the Sox initially planned to stretch Crochet out but abruptly changed course after these two trades, then this would be as bad or possibly worse than the previous clown show and what they did with Kopech in the bullpen likely forced by Tony.
I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for now, in light of Crochet’s limited workload throughout his collegiate and professional career and slim chance he could ever have sustained success as an MLB starter.
- 2018 63 2/3 IP (Age 19)
- 2019 65 IP (20)
- 2020 9 1/3 IP (21)
- 2021 54 1/3 IP (22)
- 2022 0 IP (23)
- 2023 25 IP (24)
- Average 36 1/3 IP
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1 minute ago, greg775 said:
Isn't East of GRate field considered a no-visit zone especially at night?
They tore down all the housing projects. I took the Green Line to Comiskey as a kid in the 1970s and 1980s. It was OK then, better now. There is plenty of room for parking lots across the Dan Ryan south of 35th / IIT.
Build a lit fan walkway to / from the stadium across the DR beyond the existing 35th street sidewalk with the thousands of more fans using on game days.
There would be police, Sox parking lot security and traffic aids across the DR as there are now where parking exists.
Also could have / can build parking structures like the Yankees and other teams and downtown has. Doesn’t have to be acres of inefficient flat land.Would work if the team stayed, Jerry / New Owner purchased the current stadium and surrounding land / parking lots currently owned by the ISFA from the state, plus new unoccupied lane east of the DR, built significant retail and business development. State extinguishes current debt, Sox get infrastructure handouts and stadium plus land for much less than a private purchase, win win for everyone.
The Sox would own it all / profit from the stadium and substantial real estate development. All the transportation infrastructure is already in place, the land is ready without significant environmental remediation. They would have more land (70 acres vs. 62 or less on the 78 parcel) plus whatever additional land they acquire east of the DR or west adjacent to the current property.
Could build a Bears Stadium on 78, or something else once you stabilize downtown in terms of replacing the collapsed demand for office space with conversions to residential over the next decade or two. More important to focus on restoring safety downtown at this point to facilitate long term viability then fret over accommodating 81 game days for a private business.
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15 hours ago, greg775 said:
Sounds like Jerry has been the villain owning those parking lots instead of developing the area in that space. On the other hand, the parking lots are needed. Like you said you don't want to go walking east of GRate Field.
Illinois Institute of Technology
Home to 7,000 students, and over a thousand employees, 3 Nobel Prize Laureates.
Located east of Comiskey Park II.
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35 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
We have multiple 45 FV pitching prospects…I’d say four of them. However, if you look at the bust rate on prospects like these, that’s really not all that much. It’s a numbers game and IMO we don’t have enough of them. And to be fully transparent, I wouldn’t disagree that our farm is even weaker in terms of OF talent. I just wouldn’t rob from our minor league pitching supply to get it. And if we felt it was key to trade Mena, I’d prefer moving him for a younger, higher ceiling OF prospect. Obviously not a popular take here, but it’s how I feel given where we are at in our rebuild.
Lance Lynn has had one good year in his thirties, was given $97M over seven years including $10M this offseason despite the fact he has three playoff seasons over the same period with double digit ERAs.
Even mediocre pitching is valuable, much more so than 4th - 5th OF types you can pick up each and every season at or slightly above the ML minimum. If he was 22-23 and possibly project into a viable everyday starter, I would have honestly still preferred Mena, but wouldn't have longer term concerns in terms of Getz' strategy.
This deal might work out net net, but the upside clearly is with Arizona. Best case scenario he performs well as a platoon RF and he can be flipped this or next year for a decent prospect or two, which is what they had with Mena with the potential to be a cost controlled #3 - #5 starter profile for a contending team in 2026/2027.
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51 minutes ago, WestEddy said:
Fletcher has power. His first 3 seasons will be during his peak. Nobody's claiming they can win with no power at the corners. You've staked out a ridiculous strawman to be right about.
And the first two and likely third season will all be losing White Sox baseball teams.
In 2021, I cared about replacing Adam Eaton and Jake Lamb and Brian Goodwin and Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets in RF because wins and losses actually mattered in a contention season. Wins and losses are not the priority in 2024.
When you have a contending team, sacrificing youth for veterans for final pieces can be justified. For the 2024 White Sox, long term needs are primary, short term production secondary. Spending money on short term FA doesn't impact future White Sox baseball, but dumping young prospects is harmful. Just play a guy who can adequately or better cover RF. If Colas isn't ready, it is not a huge difference whether it's Pillar or Phillips or DeLoach or even Whit Merrifield or Eloy or Billy Hamilton. Don't even care if it's Fletcher if he was a waiver claim or FA signing.
Counting wildly inflated PCL stats as power is a stretch. He would be lucky to hit double digit home runs in a season even in HR friendly ballparks like Arizona or the Sox. Several comparisons in this thread to Adam Eaton are ridiculous. Eaton was an established ML hitter with a 5.2 bWAR season under his belt and over 200 MLB games played before entering his age 26 and 27 seasons. This guy was Arizona's sixth best outfielder at best, has 102 career plate appearances. If they thought anything of him, if they thought his .791 OPS and .377 BABIP was sustainable he would have continued playing last season. Neither are, and he will have trouble contributing once ML pitchers actually focus on his weaknesses vs. prioritizing other hitters in the lineup.
It's the same as pitchers handing Grandal 87 walks in 2021 6 hole, to focus on getting Leury, Lamb, Mendick, Madrigal and the other poor bottom third hitters in the White Sox lineup. Grandal had 6 less walks the next two seasons combined despite having more plate appearances in both years. He put up empty walk stats not because he was some reincarnation of Barry Bonds, but rather because there was no risk in walking him to clog up the bases with three below MLB quality hitters behind him on a regular basis. If I managed against Luis Robert this season, he'd lead the league in walks. Take your chances with the next guy, be it Yoan or Eloy or anyone else. Since 2/3 of baseball aren't contending, that won't happen, but in a meaningful game it would be done on a regular basis.
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1 minute ago, WestEddy said:
What RF is on the market right now for a one year, $20 million deal? I don't care about Reinsdorf's money.
I'm not sure how a guy who can hit and play the field well lends itself to poor roster construction. I'd take 3 season's of Benintendi's 2021, if that's what Fletcher turns into. Everybody screamed about giving up Hector Santiago for Adam Eaton. Santiago had exactly one league-average season after leaving the Sox.
I can't remember who's who, because half the people here have "white sox" in their name. But it seems like the general complaint was that all Getz was pursuing was glove-only ballplayers with one year of control. They got 6 years of a player who can hit and catch the ball. And it was for a guy that Chicago White Sox dude called "2nd tier" of a collection of starting pitchers he thought laughable.
I always find it weird how each player in our minor league system sucks until we trade one of them, then it's a freakin' tragedy and we paid too much. Jake Peter all over again. LOL.$20M is in reference to Getz’ collective off-season FA signings (could be slightly more or less, just approximating plus Pillar won’t be known until OD).
I posted the 1937 star because this isn’t segregation era baseball, and you can’t sacrifice power at both OF corners and expect to have a winning team.
Losing Mena for similarly aged or younger prospects, even this guy, wouldn’t concern me. The lack of logic or big picture thinking concerns me.
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2 hours ago, WestEddy said:
We have a surplus of starting pitching. We have a dearth of outfield talent. If you don't see how a "useful player" fits into some broader strategy, I'm not sure what you're even asking. You can't assume that a player who has been successful in a short run in the majors has too many question marks, but a guy who has had a sketchy track record in the minors, even while ascending quickly at a young age - doesn't.
I get that you don't like the trade. I wish the D-backs just gave us Fletcher for cash considerations. That would have been cool.The Sox don’t have a surplus of anything beyond Brooks Boyer’s 50 ticket agents, and 79 year old hall of fame person consultants.
1 hour ago, WestEddy said:They picked up an OF who appears to be able to catch and hit the ball with 6 years of control. That's how he fits into the long term puzzle. I'm not sure what you're struggling with. If there are only 26 players on the planet who can play for the next White Sox championship team, please point them out.
The White Sox seem to have assembled a surplus of starting pitching, both through a couple of pitching heavy drafts, and a series of trades. They dealt a guy whom they felt his arsenal might not play as well in the majors. They don't appear to have faith in Colas to break some bad habits.
Again, I don't see what the struggle is.The struggle is we suffered a decade with Hahn’s poor roster construction, and this seems like old times.
You’re going the wrong direction trading a solid 21 year old prospect for a 27 year old this September, who even if he is good will be in his 30s before the team is in contention. And he is a poor man’s Benintendi you are are already stuck with for four more years.
People here are more worried about Jerry dying with $20M more in his pocket by Getz spending on one year FA signings than they are giving up prospects for guys who best case scenario will be on the decline by the time the Sox ever have built a competitive core.
I’ve supported most of what Getz has done, but this and Maldonado are redundant with other existing players and a step in the wrong direction. You don’t need five DHs on the roster and you don’t need five no power fungible starters either, especially in a year that doesn’t matter based on your spending cuts and existing roster.
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I thought it was reported back when this all came out that Jimmy Rollins was the one responsible for going over both Ventura and Hahn straight to Kenny to b**** about Drake La Roche.
Didn’t see Rollins or anyone else implicated in the Athletic article, but perhaps this was merely speculation since he was new in camp.
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World Series Champions with under 10 Combined Primary Corner Outfielder HRs since 1921
CS = Combined Corner OF Starts
- 6 1937 New York Yankees Myril Hoag 3 HR (88 CS) + Jake Powell 3 HR (93 CS)
End of list
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Perhaps because he is one of the few White Sox who gave a s%*# the past two seasons and earns just over the ML minimum salary.
Meanwhile, nobody wants this guy even for a low A scrub.
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4 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:
It’s more a concern to me because he acquired some really bad players via free agency, which is an indictment on what he apparently values in a player. I’d give his trades an A and his free agent acquisitions an F.
I'd agree if these were the type of moves made for a 2021/2022 team. These are the type of moves when you have nearly 20 holes on your 26 man roster and cutting payroll by 1/3. Hahn signed a bunch of over the hill players with an extra zero in their salary.
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1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:
Hah, I feel the opposite. These two trades today have given me a little more faith in Getz as a GM. Dude needs to stay away from the free agent dumpster diving and make more trades. I guess I don’t see much in Mena. Doubt he ever makes the majors.
The hand wringing about veterans which won't matter beyond perhaps what they were flipped for amuses me. They need to field a team and stabilize attendance from falling significantly further.
I'm not saying Getz is bad because of this move, just saying the move is short sighted. The FA signings do not impact future teams but this move with limited upside does. Non of the 2024 FA pickups or Fletcher will be around on the next competitive Sox team. Just saying they should get a younger prospect with more late 2020s upside, not a guy pushing 30 if the Sox turn it around in 2026/2027. Hoping he can contribute and perhaps be flipped in a year or two.
2024 PECOTA / Fangraphs Standings & Consensus Regular Season Win Total Odds
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted · Edited by South Side Hit Men
Predictions are as of 2/6. The best 2/5 Over and Under Odds among the five linked are included below.
While each of the three WAR calculations and projections have merit (Baseball Reference being the third), I've found Baseball Prospectus to be the best of the three in terms of win loss projections based on their system and the fact they spend more time on the playing time allotment for their paid audience. FanGraphs will flesh out their run differential and perhaps a more refined W/L prediction before Spring Training.
PECOTA has all six divisions with a prohibitive favorite (over 50% probability), with four of the six over 67%. AL East 57.8% Yankees and 52.4% Saint Louis the two outliers.
Half of MLB teams start the season with an under 5% probability of winning the division. Nine teams have a pathetic 0.0% (White Sox, Oakland, Washington and Colorado) through 1.2% probability.
Signings of the top remaining free agents (Snell 3.3, Montgomery 3.2, Chapman 2.6, Bellinger 2.4, Soler 1.9, Ryu 1.8, Anderson 1.6) will impact additional wins along the margins along with injuries or any remaining significant trades of Cease or others.
American League East ( + 60 > .500) ( + 44 > .500)
American League Central ( - 48 < .500) ( - 34 < .500)
American League West ( + 2 > .500) ( + 8 > .500)
National League East ( + 4 > .500) ( + 10 > .500)
National League Central ( - 18 < .500) ( - 10 < .500)
National League West ( + 0 > .500) ( + 2 > .500)
Still think the Sox at over 62 1/2 wins give you a decent margin of safety, with the trade of Santos and likely trade of Cease and perhaps others, they may be closer than I'd wish. Based in the PECOTA projections and listed odds, the best bets in terms of a blended current PECOTA and FanGraphs projections are as follows:
Best Bets
Likely now, but concerns with ownership dumping further the rest of the year
Think they will continue to add before OD and possibly in July, shrinking the margin of safety