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Rusty_Kuntz

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Posts posted by Rusty_Kuntz

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

    I honestly don't see how they can make a great package, unless they deal Painter.  Abel isn't a headliner, Crawford has 0 power, which isn't something I want to trade for.

    I love Crawford. And I'm not so sure he can't develop power, he's barely a college freshman's age. Either way, he's got all the other tools. 

    I think Abel and Crawford plus another strong piece would be great. Painter and Crawford would be great too. 

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted · Edited by Rusty_Kuntz

    I mentioned the Phillies a while back. They could offer a great package but they have a solid five man rotation already, iirc.

    Wheeler, Walker, Nola, Suarez, and Sanchez. The first four are obvious, and Sanchez broke out as a starter last year. 

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

    Lowder is a stud.  Him and Petty in the same deal ++ would be a great Cease trade.

    I would prefer one of them and a top position player. I don't personally want the top 2 guys to both be pitchers, but of course that is just preference. 

     

    Also I'm not trying to disparage Lowder - he has amazing stuff. Just think Petty is also a very, very good prospect. 

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

    That is severely missing a 2nd piece

    I'd say that both of those young guys look really good so far also not close to MLB Maybe make the 4th guy is another in that category or someone who is already there but lower ceiling. 

    I am also high on Marte, so I guess that plays in to not needing at top 75 second piece. 

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Boopa1219 said:

    Is this a bad and unrealistic return from Baltimore?

    BAL gets Cease.

    Sox get Coby Mayo, Basallo, Enrique Bradfield, and their comp pick. 

    I would say yes, that's more than the Sox will get. IMO one of Mayo or Basallo plus another of their top 8 or so would be a win. 

    Braves acquire Jarred Kelenic

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

    I don't buy that. Two top 100 prospects, one of them really strong, is what people seem to be asking for Cease right now - that's about what I'd give up for 2022 Cease. That's not the price for a 3 WAR pitcher with 2 years of control, that's the price for a TOR pitcher. That's what I was saying we should hope for at the trade deadline last year, and if it wasn't there, you wait until the offseason and hope he has a better second half. That's the price for 2 years of a top 5 pitcher in your league.

    He had a worse second half. He wasn't a top 5 pitcher or even a top of the rotation pitcher in 2023.

    If we want to demand that price for him, I get doing so - but that's the exact thought process that has gotten me to say that he'll be with the Sox on opening day this year, because other teams can work through these numbers just as I did. To get that price for him coming off what he did in 2023, either someone will need to get desperate enough to overpay, or he will have to go out and prove that he's more 2022 Cease than 2023 Cease next year.

    I think most people would give up more than that for 2022 Cease. 

    I doubt he'll be on the Sox on opening day. 

    • Like 1

    Braves acquire Jarred Kelenic

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

    Because it's his latest season, losing velocity is more common than gaining it back and you can always get worse. So you would have to be damn sure 2023 is his floor and he stays off the floor for 2 years.

    I can see this, espeically if you think all the issue is from losing 1 mph of his fastball. But it's really not uncommon for pitchers to have down seasons mixed in throughout their careers. 

    • Like 1

    Braves acquire Jarred Kelenic

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

     

    You wouldn't throw it out, but you would put it in context.

    Dylan Cease was a 4 fWAR pitcher basically each of the last 3 years, but if you go into his numbers in more detail there's more to learn. If we go to baseball-reference WAR, he was a 6 WAR pitcher in 2022 and a 2.5 WAR pitcher in 2023 (below your 3 WAR floor), and I think there's actually more to these numbers than the Fangraphs version. 

    In 2022, Dylan Cease was excellent because of his contact profile - his expected batting average against was in the top 4% of baseball. Pair that with his elite strikeout rate, and you have an elite pitcher even though he has an elevated walk rate.

    In 2023, he lost over 1 mph from his fastball. While he kept his strikeout rate high, his contact profile went back to what it was in 2020 when he was a rookie, he gave up a lot of hard hits. People were saying in April that if Cease didn't find his fastball he was in trouble and I disagreed with them at the time - they were right! Cease lost velocity on his fastball, kept the strikeouts, but both his fastball and his slider were harder hit as a consequence. Fangraphs is actually filtering this out, because FIP stats normalize out variations in BABIP, but variations in BABIP caused by a different contact profile are actually real. So, the context is - yes, he was truly elite in 2022, but he lost velocity in 2023 and that hurt him in a way that he has to pitch around. Other teams can see that, if we could see here in April that he'd be in trouble with the reduced velocity then other teams can see it too, so they have to ask themselves whether they're willing to pay the price for the 2022 version if they have a high chance of getting the 2023 version.

    If he was predicted to be his 2022 self for the next two years, his asking price would be much higher. 

    Even if you get a mix of his three full seasons, his value should easily be two top 100 guys. 

    If you assume he's going to be his 2023 version for the next two years maybe you are correct, but I'm not sure why anyone assumes that rather than assume that's his floor. 

    • Like 1
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    Braves acquire Jarred Kelenic

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

    Think of what Cease did outside of 2022 and that's probably closer to his value. What would you give up for his 2021 and 2023? 

    Why would you throw out a player's best year, a year that was only two seasons ago, when determining his value? The sample size is only 3 years, so 33% of the same size he was elite. 

    His floor is probably 3 WAR on a good team. His ceiling is 6+ WAR. I think for a guy who will cost very little that's worth two top 100 prospects and another lighter piece. 

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 3

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

    Then Atlanta isn't getting Cease.  If they want Cease, Smith-Sharver has to be in the deal unless they include one of their position players currently on the MLB roster and they aren't going to do that.  

    Agreed. I don't consider them a real player for Cease. 

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    ATL probably isn't going to trade Smith-Sharver. I think they are planning on having him in the rotation. Past that it's Waldrep who looks like he could be great but is a few years off and can't be the centerpiece. Past that? No one who's been past High A. Just not enough there imo, especially with all pitchers. 

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