LDF

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 10:57 PM) Ok, if you do that, does that help your team? All you did was add a stud 3B, but you lost a stud SP. You literally took one asset and shifted it to a different position. But you still have the same amount of holes on your team. That trade doesn't do the Sox favors. The purpose in trading for top prospects back as opposed to established studs is that you can get more of them back. So you fill 2 for 1, a net gain of at least 1. You trade Sale for Arrenado, you do a 1 for 1 deal. No net gain. but the team will need to make some really hard decision to fix this team that was screwed up.... the team fix a hole at 3b which is extremely important yeah and now sp's rotation. a fa for a lower tier sp who is on the market. btw, there also should be a couple of minor leaguers that will be trade with him. so the question should be, who else and how will they help the team

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 10:53 PM) This right here is all that needs to be said. A trade based around two established all stars ensures that both teams get what they are looking for. Any discrepancies in the values between the two players can easily be worked out with a minor leaguer or two so the trade had much less moving pieces and easier for both teams to pull the trigger. question..... is this with a sale trade or Q????

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 10:41 PM) Except guys like Seager have experience. If you get Pederson, he's another guy with experience. They are exactly what you think Betts and Bryant are (young guys with experience). And yes, they started a significant amount of games last year. Here's some food for thought for you guys who feel like you can't trade Sale except in a for sure deal - Sale dropped in the draft because of his delivery. He's spent time on the DL already. You can't guarantee that his arm won't snap off can you? You can't guarantee his success over the next 6 years. Hell, everyone thought Danks was a sure thing since he didn't throw too hard, had a pretty good delivery and looked durable. Let's look at a situation in which dealing an ace pitcher can help your franchise, even 10 years down the line. Mark Mulder for Haren, Calero, and Barton in 2004. That trade is still paying dividends for Oakland: *Haren (and Connor Robertson) was traded in 2007 for Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez, and Greg Smith. *Anderson was traded for Drew Pomeranz and Chris Jensen. *Pomeranz was just traded for Yonder alonso and Mark Rcyznzpnap Scrabble, who are on the 25 man roster. *Cunningham (and Scott Hairston) went to San Diego in 2010 for Kevin Kouzmanoff and Eric Sogard -- Sogard is still on the 25 man roster. *Carter (and Brad Peacock) were sent to Houston in 2013 for Fernando Rodriguez and Jed Lowrie, who is back on the roster now lol. Rodriguez pitched last year and is arby eligible and should bounce back and forth between Oakland and AAA in the bullpen. *CarGo and Smith were traded (with Huston Street) to Colorado for Matt Holliday in 2008. *Holliday was traded in 2009 for Clayton Mortensen, Shane Peterson, and Brett Wallace. *Wallace was traded for Michael Taylor, who was traded for Jake Sanchez. Sanchez is still in the A's minor league system. So right now in 2015 the A's can trace back 6 players currently with the team back to the Mark Mulder trade 11 years ago. ref the bold, while you are asking on the negative results of any guarantee, there is always the flip side of that, he also could have many yrs of good to great success. this is for this discussion only. but again, i would trade sale if they, the other team comes in with a boat load of prospects and players. now for Q, yeah i would start with seager and end with barnes and their 2 comp picks.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 10:16 PM) I agree that this year didn't come out of left field as some implied, but I think it's funny that you use fWAR only when it suits your argument, even in the same post/thread. You noted in an earlier thread about the consistent discrepancies between Samardzija's bWAR and fWAR, and have said multiple times that defense can't be blamed for his poor numbers. Yet now you're claiming his 2015 equaled his 2013 and 2012 production. However, in the very same thread, you're surprised that anyone would want him, even though he just put up a 2.7 WAR. Why wouldn't a team want a 2.7 WAR pitcher? What's wrong with his fWAR value now? Seems inconsistent. i respect what you are saying esp with the advance stats.... since i do not know of this stats, i will settle on one point. things that happen coming out of left field. i will respectfully challenge anyone to point out that it was known and proven to have seen this before the end of the season. i just don't know enuf of the stat thingy to have a good understanding of your counter.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 10:15 PM) Lol, we are definitely seeing things from the same perspective LDF. scary uh....

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 05:22 PM) Not sure about you, but I care more about the name on the front of the jersey than the back. Being a bad team with 1 of the best pitchers in baseball doesn't do much for me. The team isn't good enough and hasn't been for almost a decade now, and unfortunately there is no real end in sight. Something drastic has to be done wether you want to admit it or not. I'd personally much rather trade Q, but given the state of the franchise Sale absolutely shouldn't be off the table And my point about payroll is there is no evidence that says the payroll will be expanded that much. Expecting it to go above 130 is unrealistic in my opinion. Not to mention that we should all know by now that overpaying for veterans in free agency is a terrible way to build a franchise i agree with what you are saying. but man i wish i had a link to that fo for this, and hope they can see the point that we as fans want to make. as i posted in another post. the sox have at this time 90 mil add another 10 for bonuses and arb. trade hard on the farm and somewhat thin out what may be a little cluster at the pitching and get rid some of the players that may not be needed in the team in the next 2 or 3 yrs. make a hard decision on 1 sp to be traded.... trade or nice pieces and extra bodies. take the salary payroll to 140.... with the understanding that 28 mill will come off at the season end due to expiring contracts. now here is the tricky point, in accounting, the yr of profit and lose is yr to yr, so at season end, that 28 mil can be worked in per IRS. 140-28 = 112 going into 2017 season. hopefully the team will have had a better season with the new players prospects being traded for and the sox very own prospects. after the 2017 season melky contract comes off the books giving the sox 97 mil. they the sox owner will be in a nice economic position again... main question, would leake be a nice pickup at 15 mil +/-??

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 09:52 PM) I have no idea what to expect out of EJ this year. I could see him having a Gavin Floyd '08 type of year (high 3s ERA), and I could also see him in the 4.75-5 ERA range. But I'd like to find out. i too agree .... ej failed and then succeeded in the minors again, he was a late call up, but does that really count??? new season, hopefully a well rested arm, and a great mind set will go a long way for him. but i would say this, his value in any trade is nothing, unless as a throw in.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 09:02 PM) Samardzija didn't "Collapse" though, as I said above he put up exactly the same fWAR he put up in 2013 and 2014. You can't be surprised by that! You can't be surprised when "Guy doesn't put up career year!" Eaton's defense was worse in 2015, but he produced more runs on offense and was a better baserunner, making him about the same player overall per game, and he played more games. And yes, you couldn't predict the collapse of LaRoche specifically, but if you sign 3 free agents, you should expect 1 of them to collapse. Maybe it would have been Cabrera, maybe Robertson, but 1 of them was going to fail badly. Especially if those 3 FAs are the mid-level guys where the risk seems to be the highest - for highest level FAs, sometimes teams just don't have the money to sign guys and they are legitimately outbid, but at the mid-level, every guy you sign is a guy the team could sign and they say "He's not worth it". Every guy we signed was a guy that their own team could have signed and they decided they had better places to spend their money. If you're counting on zero out of 3 of those guys to fail...your season will be a failure because at least one, maybe more than 1 will be disappointing or extremely bad. If "things that happen to everyone" are "terrible luck" when they happen to your team, the problem is your plan. You couldn't predict the specific things that happen...but you could absolutely predict "some bad things will happen". Maybe it's not a 36 year old hitting the wall at mid-season, it's a pitcher spraining an ankle or Chase Utley sliding into 2nd base against you. We built a team that needed nothing to go wrong whatsoever, then bet $120 million and traded away a bunch of players based on that bet. That's a sucker bet! but in the beginning of the season and for a month after, he didn't put up those numbers. then he was lights out. hind sight, esp if you accumulate all the other things that went bad.... it just spiral out of control.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 08:55 PM) This is a great post and you make numerous good points. What I'm referring to is nobody had foreseen the collapse of LaRoche, Eaton's dWAR going from 1.8 in '14 to -1.1 in '15, the collapse of Samardzija. I give the Sox a pass on Avi since despite the results the Sox needed to give Avi a full season to see what he could do, or not do. Melky, sigh, not sure what to say other than he was supposed to be a defensive upgrade over Tank despite Melky not being good defensively. Alexei's regression I feel was a somewhat obvious one to see coming due to his age and trend. Gillaspie' '14 bat had me fooled to the point to where I was fine with him at 3B but looking back, well, yeah nuff said. Flowers, yep same old s***. From my POV there were some things the Sox should have seen coming but there were some things they couldn't have seen coming without advice from Nostradamus first. oops i made my post before i saw yours.... sorry.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 08:33 PM) The White Sox did not have that many things go wrong. The specific discussion there is on Samardzija - Samardzija in 2012 put up 2.7 fWAR, Samardzija in 2013 put up 2.7 fWAR...Samardzija in 2015 put up 2.7 fWAR. Combine bad defense behind him with playing in the AL and basically his season was close to "comparable with what you'd expect from him". That's what the Giants are paying him to do. If "a guy not putting up a career year" is something going wrong, the problem is not with things going wrong, it's your planning. Then take a look at the FA market. I looked through the list of last year's FAs. If you go through the list of guys who signed for legit money (not replacement players) you'll find that if you picked 3 at random, you'd get about 1 guy who lived up to his contract, 1 guy who was ok but disappointed relativet o his money, and the third guy would be a bust. The White Sox signed 3 big FAs last year, Robertson lived up to or even slightly exceeded his money, Cabrera was disappointing, and LaRoche was a bust. Our performance in the FA market last year was just about average. Duke disappointed, but we got a helluva lot more wins out of Soto than anyone imagined. The problem wasn't the White Sox having "so many things go wrong", it was the White Sox believing they could somehow outsmart the FA market to completely rebuild their roster. On top of that, look at defense. Name a strong defender the White Sox brought in. The defense being terrible was basically item #1 on our preseason plan. That can't be treated as something going wrong when we did nothing to make it any better. Then look at our guys. The org penciled in Garcia to be a near all star last year. What did they do to make that happen? As far as I can tell they stuck their fingers in their ears and said louder "He'll be great!" any time someone pointed out an issue with him. There was no overhaul of his approach at the plate. He was the same weak hitter and crappy defender on April 1 that he was on September 30. Then Hell, we brought up a 2b who had injury problems and a month of experience above AA and we were totally shocked that he didn't have a good approach in the running game, couldn't stay healthy, and was weak on defense. Gillaspie and Flowers had better seasons in 2014 than 2015, but are you going to say you were 100% confident in those guys? Enough to bet a $120 million payroll? The fact that we are surprised by these things is sad. Saying "guys will be great!!!" more loudly doesn't make them better players. The moves they had to make these guys better, new hitting coach and new baserunning coach, did jack squat or even made them worse, and that was seemingly a huge part of the White Sox's plan to compete. Turn it around. If the White Sox had somehow won 88 games last year, what would we be saying about some of the other things that happened? "The White Sox were insanely healthy last year. Sale missed 1 start on the DL, aside from that, name a key player that spent time on the DL. Albers on a self inflicted wound? No one got seriously hurt. Our entire starting rotation stayed healthy. Our entire starting lineup stayed healthy. Our closer stayed healthy. A couple guys missed games here and there and that was it. The year beforehand, Abreu hit the 15 day DL, Garcia hit the 60 day DL, Sale missed 6 weeks, and Eaton missed like 6 weeks. None of those guys got hurt! On top of that, no one got their knee torn up by a guy sliding in at 2nd, there were no freak OF collisions, no one broke a hand on a HBP, how on Earth did all that happen?" Baseball teams don't get that lucky with health, it's unheard of. Then who had Trayce coming up and hitting like Mike Trout for 2 months? Who predicted Saladino coming up and being one of the best IF defenders in the league? This team was built on the assumptions that: high-risk older guys would get better or at least not get old, everyone would stay healthy, defense didn't matter, and talent would develop because we said it would. This was not "everything going wrong". This was "Everything playing out exactly the way it was supposed to...but the people in the front office deluding themselves into believing the rules didn't apply to them." as i have said in the previous post, so many things went wrong, and i highlighted your post as the same. i know in the end you mention about some of the examples i would use, but i want to post this in my way. what went wrong that affect last yr team. Sale got hurt, Shark not performing in the beginning of the season as he should have the whole team offensive slump. bad defense at 2b (mj) bad defense and hitting 3b everything at dh alexei not producing avi not producing as he should adam e not hitting as he could melky not producing as he was pd to do flower continue hitting in the low 205 range hector noesi 2014 performance disappeared. webb couldn't do anything right. sox had no pitchers ready to step in and help .... putting Rodon in the rotation maybe a tad early?? lastly, rv key screw up in a game which escalated his scrutiny of whether he is a manager.... then the session the front office made public of to discuss situations with him....( note. i can remember how it was phrase here. ) you add all this.... it really sunk the team. the real question should be, could another manger, another FO personnel have seen it and could have done something to at least stop that momentum??? this is what i mean that so many things went wrong.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 03:35 PM) The point being, a team can't offer guys and RH and KW conclude that seems fair. They have to conclude they are getting an unbelievable deal. They are under no pressure to trade him. exactly, like the discussion yesterday about the dodgers, they want a pitcher, one of the sox cost control belly up and impress the sox with an offer that will knock the sox off hahn, kw and the owners. if not, don't to to come a calling.

QUOTE (Special K @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 04:17 PM) Could we get a contributing everyday position player for a Robertson trade? If so, who? And, finally, assuming I agree with your proposed hypothetical trade, why no do it? I think we could still have a solid bullpen. it all depend on the team which is in need of a closer. hou comes to mind, but remember, the player coming back, the team doing the trade, will need a backup to take over.... now that may be the problem....

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 04:23 PM) that is point. Anyone thinking some of the asks on here are crazy, I think that is wrong. It is exactly what it would take. You can't take maybes for Chris Sale. Once he is gone, he is gone, and to get someone near him back, it costs $200 million. then i misread your post before, b/c i am in agreement .... and the luck of a later round pitcher becoming one will be extremely lucky. so if a team wants a sale or a Q, then they better pony up.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 03:43 PM) That's how we got Sale. Through the draft. Rodon may turn out to be one as well. KC won a WS with nothing close to an Ace. But they had a pen, depth, and no holes. Seattle has had an ace for years, and hasn't come close to the playoffs. As for Santana, yes the Twins prospects didn't turn out to be much; of course Santana declined the second he went to NY as well. He was still good with the Mets for a while, but not an ace. remember i said, a team will not get a front end, if they didn't pick in a low teens, i stand somewhat corrected b/c sale was selected #13 in his draft and partly b/c of concerns of his delivery. here is the post i posted .... now teams get lucky but i rather have that high selection to better the odds of the pitcher.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 03:32 PM) The great thing about posting trade, draft, and other signing ideas on a message board, is when your idea would work out, there is proof forever that you had or supported that idea. But what is even better is your bad ideas just go away like they never posted. In reality, you are stuck with your bad trade or bad signing or bad draft pick, or other bad idea if you where to do this for real. It is easy to say the White Sox will never be good, I also remember the mid 80s when people were saying you couldn't win NBA titles with the leading scorer in the league, that MJ didn't make his teammates better, and if the Bulls were serious about winning titles, trading a guy who it would have been impossible to get full value for, was the thing to do. No way is Chris Sale the baseball equivalent to MJ, but people here who want to trade him are doing so just for change sake not for team improvement sake. Once he is gone he is gone and if the prospects aren't as good as he was, you are in worse shape. I think if they were to deal in the reality of it all, the opinion of Sale needs to go by some would go away. If you go by Price and Greinke, teams in the open market would be willing to pay Sale about $20 million a year more the next 4 years than his contract calls for. How many players can you say that about? He is underpaid vs. the open market the next 4 years more money than what has been guaranteed in the biggest contract the White Sox have ever agreed. Expanding the payroll past $120 million seems a reasonable plan to get the team better. I don't know what the fascination is with some people of a $40 million payroll. you are making an assumption right here ref bold. the main thing is to recognize the value of the rtn, what is everybody expecting as a rtn, good superstar value on the same page as sale??? or is the FO looking for avg to above avg players to fix a hole and hold their own as an everyday player??

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 12:46 PM) Yep. Pretty sure I had them in the 85-87 win range or there abouts. with my negative rant on the system before the spring training, i was still more than positive that the sox would have done great. i predicted over 90 wins. i was way off.... but i still hold my head high, b/c i counter was the manager and lady luck. so many negatives went wrong last yr. so many.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 12:09 PM) Who cost the pick for the Cubs? the signing of Lackey - sp.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 12:12 PM) I agree with you here but just to be clear I wasn't only referring to the Samardzija trade when I said " No way could anyone could have envisioned so many things going wrong on so many levels". That was an over all reference to the numerous other things that went wrong along with Samardzija's bad season. Another thing I'd like to clarify real quick is that while I was very much against the Samardzija trade, in no way did I think he would be as bad as he was in '15. I definitely did not see that coming. nor the team. remember.... the was a poll of how many games the sox would win.... many participated in that poll, including me.... the feeling then was the sox would pull off a magical season and go the playoff.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 11:59 AM) Pretty sure GreenSox is referring to the idea of continuing to draft pitching to replace the current pitchers when they become free agents and insanely expensive. Two examples of this would be Erik Johnson coming up next season to replace Samardzija and in '17 (hopefully) Carson Fulmer coming up to replace Danks when Danks becomes a FA after the '16 season. Imo, the annual cost of pitching is why the Sox continue to draft pitchers and after seeing the market explode so far this winter I'd say it's a good strategy. Playing 81 games a year at the hitter friendly Cell helps with that too. a good point on the philosophy of drafting pitchers. nice pov.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 05:11 AM) That's why you draft pitcher, like the Sox do. So you can groom replacements. Draft enough of them, you'll get the replacements. Speaking of blowing, that's what this team does for the foreseeable future, as constructed. but not a front end sp a true #1 sp.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 12:07 PM) The reason I'm ok with moving Sale, for the right package, is because this team can draft and develop pitching. I don't see some team ponying up for him though. It'd be a lot to give up for him. Sale will be our King Felix. Always bantered about but never dealt. remember we are here talking about a true #1 sp, an elite #1 sp. those you do not draft in the low teens.... the sox and sale and where the sox pick him was all b/c of question on his delivery. in other words, the sox got lucky.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 10:47 PM) Red Sox flat out told Minny they weren't going to give up both Ellsbury and Lester in the same deal. The Yanks offered Melky, Phil Hughes and a lower level prospect. And at the time, Johan was seen as the sure-fire, no doubt about it, best pitcher in baseball. The Twins wanted two of the three (which might I add, is less than what you guys are demanding from the Dodgers) Ellsbury, Lester Bucholz. Boston countered with Lowrie (not a top 10 prospect in their system at the time), Ellz OR Lester, and Coco Crisp. On top they added a lower level pitcher, possibly Justin Masterson who wasn't a top 10 prospect in their system at the time either. So Red Sox: Ellsbury or Lester Lowrie (not a top 10 prospect in their system at the time) Crisp (MLB player) possibly Justin Masterson (not a top 10 prospect) http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...007/262814.html Yankees: Phil Hughes (#1 Yankees Prospect) Melky Cabrera(MLB Player) third prospect who they refused to to be one of their top ones (Kennedy, Horne or Austin Jackson) http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...007/262804.html http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3138088 So despite what you may or may not feel. There is no precedent for asking for the crazy packages you guys are asking for. you can not just use examples of the past to justify today's market value of players. plus he is an elite sp. go back to the randy johnson trade time. esp with what Sea was asking from the sox..... 4 sp's and a hitter.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 11:30 PM) So instead of filling up two gaps with players who are cost controlled as well, are every day players, and top 10 prospects within the last year, you rather hold onto Sale? i will pipe in b/c i gave a scenario as well, the answer is a simple yes, b/c of the great contract, b/c of who is being traded, yes if they expect anything better and finally yes b/c if they don't the sox will walk and someone else might step in with an offer the sox wants.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 11:31 PM) Remember when posters on this site didn't want to give him a QO? Talk about dumb ideas. and i will say, that is why none of us works for the sox org

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 11:20 PM) A 73 win team trading 4 players, 3 of whom would have helped the team (the fourth a prospect) for a 1-year rent, is not well-conceived, even had Samardzija pitched as people thought. I guess the Sox thought they could contend, but that was howling at the moon. Hopefully they are more sensible this off-season. many of us fans were drinking that kool-aid for the sox winning 80+ games and makiing the playoff. i remember that some was even thinking of it being a good trade off to get him on the roster for the playoff. 3 strong sp's danks and hector..... well it didn't happen and the gamble failed miserably. don't get me wrong, i too was in the crowd....