FWIW, excerpts on reed and honel from a BA chat about their top 100 list:
--Reed--
WLingo:
i think jeremy reed could be similar. will he do what he did in 2003 every year?
JCallis:
I say no on Jeremy Reed.
JCallis:
I like the guy, respect his hitting ability, but that .400 average in Double-A is going to get him overrated temporarily.
JCallis:
We still don't know if he's a long-term CF, if he's going to hit more than 15 HR, if he can steal bases at a productive rate.
WLingo:
me too. and i thought i would have him lower than anyone else and had him highest. i hate it when that happens!
JManuel:
His track record with the bat has been very steady, though. His offensive potential was depressed at Long Beach State.
JBoyd:
I agree with Jim on Greinke--but Greinke is so smart on the mound and he has the arm strength to throw 95, I thought he was one of the toughest guys to rank accurately.
JManuel:
Masked by a big ballpark.
JCallis:
And I'll bet he doesn't hit .373 every year.
JManuel:
No, he won't. Your point is a good one, he'll be temporarily overrated.
JBoyd:
Good bet.
JCallis:
One thing that gets me a little, and again, I'm nitpicking Greinke here, is that I like top pitching prospects to miss bats. And Greinke missed a good number, but not a ton.
JBoyd:
It's interesting how Reed when from underrated to overrated.
--Honel--
WLingo:
here's a guy john and josh can argue about: kris honel. ranked 50+ spots apart
JCallis:
I don't know what to make of Guthrie, and I think I ranked him lower than everyone at No. 81.
JManuel:
Honel and Macay McBride (who didn't make the list) I did the same thing:
JManuel:
they've shown less velo than in HS, but they've learned to pitch without the velo.
JManuel:
if it comes back (and I guess what I have read made me think it can) they'll be that much better for it
JBoyd:
Good point John, and both have outstanding breaking balls.
JCallis:
Honel's frame would indicate that he should add velocity, too. He's five inches taller than McBride, who is a lefty. And of course, you don't have to be tall to be good.
JBoyd:
I may have been light on them, but I think McBride ends up in the pen, where he can be really effective and I think neither is more than a No. 3 starter
JCallis:
And that brings up a good point, actually two.
JManuel:
McBride's delivery is the key to his velo; if he stays high in his delivery he's 90-93, and I think he'll be a very solid starter in Atlanta.
JCallis:
1. When we call someone a No. 3 starter, that doesn't mean we don't like him. A good No. 3 starter is a pretty good big leaguer.
JManuel:
Excellent point
JBoyd:
oh, man, I get so many e-mails telling me I'm a hater when i call someone a no. 3 starter
JCallis:
2. The Top 100 isn't 100 superstars or 100 all-stars. When you get into the 40s, we're essentially tabbing guys who most likely will have long careers but not be great.