False Alarm

hmmm.

BP's been pretty open over the years, seems to me, about PECOTA's problems projecting the sox. i ain't had a subscrip over there in a while, but i remember a near annual column, especially when nate silver still wrote for them, explaining, that, yes, our system has projected the sox for 41 wins, but for some reason we always seem wrong about the sox, so because of [this weird factor] and [this weird factor] and [this weird factor] and [herm schneider], the chisox are probably actually gonna win 83 games. i'm pretty sure i've actually seen admiring columns from their writers about how the white sox always seem to outsmart BP's projection systems. or maybe i'm just drunk.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 2, 2012 -> 05:25 AM) Can someone summarize maybe the 3-5 best books they've read since August/September of last year? I'm trying to catch up with every book that I can't read while I'm in China, and I just refuse to use kindle/e-readers, just have to have the feeling of an actual, physical book in my hand. I read the latest Grisham (Litigators) and Paterson/Alex Cross books on the plane, so my interests go from David Foster Wallace/Ulysses level of difficulty to summer beach reading. One of the books I read about here that I really enjoyed was 11/22/63, the Stephen King one on the JFK assassination "re-do." Fifty Shades of Grey, couldn't make it through. Read all the Hunger Games books in one week, though. best books i've read since last aug/sep were hundred years of solitude (reread) and blood meridian, both of which i'm sure you've read. best few after those: the last unicorn, peter s beagle the year of the death of ricardo reis, saramago a dance with dragons, grrm never knew another, jm mcdermott i ain't gonna summarize em. throw em into google and read the jacket descriptions. now that i look at it, all four are fantasy of some type (you could call the saramago magic realism and argue that magic realism ain't fantasy, if you were in the mood). kind of a coincidence--i like mystery and SF and so-called literary fiction too. as for DFW, i knew him a long time ago. had him a couple semesters at ISU. great guy, great teacher. i've read only a few short stories and an essay or two of his writing, so i don't have a strong opinion on him as a writer. his talent is obvious, at least. suppose i'll take up IJ one of these days.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 26, 2011 -> 03:50 PM) To be fair, it is much harder to lie about your age post 9-11. Notice how you rarely hear about it anymore? sure, i know. doesn't mean it's impossible (it's certainly happened since then), and doesn't negate the fact that there's been a good amount of smoke about silverio's age. i mean, the guy played 2009 in the DR after playing 2008 over here, and it was because of an age discrepancy in his papers. that's from buddy bell's mouth. that right there is a good reason to wonder about his age, and it's not the only reason. so i think i'm being fair. what's not fair is to say we have no reason to believe he's not 20. i mean, i don't mind someone taking the optimistic route and just trusting that he's 20, but neither can i blame someone for acknowledging the weird circumstances around silverio and thus not trusting the listed age.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 26, 2011 -> 02:16 PM) If he is actually 20, and we have no reason to believe otherwise, then he could turn himself into a very legitimate prospect this year. The results are very encouraging so far. Small sample size of course, but he's drawing a walk here and there, his K rate isn't terrible yet, and he's hit for a bit of power. seriously? no reason? no reason at all? i mean, sure, he might be 20. it's possible. i'll entertain the scenario. i could even imagine that there's, say, a better-than-even chance that he is in fact 20. but there are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of his age. you wouldn't even have to qualify the statement if there weren't.

i love any thread that has karko's throat skin.

just judging from your list caulfield you might like some norman rush or ken kalfus, if you ain't checked them before. maybe mortals and pu-239 and other stories, respectively. neither has a book as new as most on your list but they're both still active, publishing writers.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Dec 14, 2010 -> 03:49 PM) he spots his fastball the way a jungle warrior spots a blow dart... c'mon, there are jungle warriors who are crappy shots. and sometimes they're just unlucky. BADIP, dude.

bizarre list to choose from. chronicles and lion-witch-wardrobe? the complete shakespeare and hamlet? popcorn like bridget jones and da vinci code alongside ulysses and a suitable boy? nothin wrong with that stuff, just weird to mash it all together. 2 The Lord of the Rings - JRR Tolkien 4 Harry Potter series - JK Rowling 6 The Bible - GOD 8 Nineteen Eighty-Four - George Orwell 13 Catch 22 - Joseph Heller 14 Complete Works of Shakespeare 16 The Hobbit - JRR Tolkien 18 Catcher in the Rye - JD Salinger 22 The Great Gatsby - F Scott Fitzgerald 24 War and Peace - Leo Tolstoy 27 Crime and Punishment - Fyodor Dostoyevsky 33 Chronicles of Narnia - CS Lewis 36 The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe - CS Lewis 40 Winnie the Pooh - A.A. Milne 42 The Da Vinci Code - Dan Brown 43 One Hundred Years of Solitude - Gabriel Garcia Marquez 44 A Prayer for Owen Meaney - John Irving 52 Dune - Frank Herbert 57 A Tale Of Two Cities - Charles Dickens 58 Brave New World - Aldous Huxley 61 Of Mice and Men - John Steinbeck 62 Lolita - Vladimir Nabokov 66 On The Road - Jack Kerouac 69 Midnight’s Children - Salman Rushdie 70 Moby Dick - Herman Melville 75 Ulysses - James Joyce 81 A Christmas Carol - Charles Dickens 82 Cloud Atlas - David Mitchell 87 Charlotte’s Web - E.B. White 89 Adventures of Sherlock Holmes - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle 91 Heart of Darkness - Joseph Conrad 93 The Wasp Factory - Iain Banks 98 Hamlet - William Shakespeare 99 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - Roald Dahl

the long room. laid back, not too loud. real good beer menu. diner grill across the street is great food for the end of a drunk.

a maybe-weird drink i picked up somewhere along the way that i really enjoy when relaxing in hot weather: bad apple strongbow cider 2 oz bourbon (i've used maker's, but there may be a better match for strongbow) ice that's it. i also like oberon and summer shandy that time of year.

QUOTE (almagest @ Apr 27, 2010 -> 04:10 AM) I read that as "humping strangers in the street" at first. Thought you might like to know. i'm good with that.

QUOTE (jenks45monster @ Apr 27, 2010 -> 03:21 AM) http://twitter.com/Kevin_Goldstein/status/12895361422 jesus, i'm trying to temper my excitement a little. "let's see how he does once peeps adjust to him a little," i think. "let's see him keep it up for at least a month or two," i think. then i read s*** like this and wanna start hugging strangers in the street, shouting "trayce!" over and over again.

how was maggs a lowlife about it again or what did he lie about? i'm fuzzy on the details for some reason. might've just blocked it out after '05.

hahn's response to being named by BA as the top GM candidate with no previous GM experience is funny: