Jake

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 01:18 PM) Some people like but don't love Jake. For instance, I don't discount how even in a quality start, there's trouble brewing in the 7th and 8th with him because of the fact he won't come out of games. That means even Jake's dominant starts can turn to hell in a hurry. You are overstating this problem greatly. Just because the times it goes wrong really stress you out, does not mean that every single start is in peril as he reaches higher pitch counts.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 12:19 PM) Alex Rios: $12.5M - also 2013:$12.5M, 2014:$12.5M, 2015:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout) Adam Dunn: $15M - also 2013:$15M, 2014:$15M Jesse Crain: $4.5M Matt Thornton; $5.5M Alexei Ramirez: $7M - also 2014:$9.5M, 2015:$10M, 2016:$10M club option ($1M buyout) Gavin Floyd: $9.5M I would be very surprised (and very disappointed as well) if 3 or more of these 6 salaries are still scheduled to be paid in full by the Sox come January. IMO 3 need to be gone, I would hope for at least 4, and in a perfect world we have dropped 5 of the 6 with prospects coming back and with money spent on either a longterm really good FA and/or shorter term reclamation type deals. I think we can definitely contend next year regardless of what we do over the offseason since we're going to have pitching and we'll probably have defense too, but IMO it would be a big mistake to not continue ahead in the same direction we've gone in since the dreaded "all in" debacle. I have no idea how you plan on us having a good team without most of those guys. Thornton clearly the most expendable, but each one after him gets very difficult to replace

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 10:04 AM) Hahn has said he can win with a 9 figure number. So that means $100M plus. That's such a funny statement. "I can win with a payroll of less than a billion!"

QUOTE (Iwritecode @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 11:12 AM) FIFY Yep. Pitching looks bad when the offense can't score 3 runs in a game. The pitching could have picked up some games for us down the stretch, but their slight regression pales in comparison to the huge slump by the offense

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 11:04 AM) Honestly, I'd identify some clubs with the best 3b/pitching prospects, and approach them about a deal for Sale. I think I'd probably start with the Rockies and talk to them about Arenado and some of their pitching spects...maybe even Toronto and Brett Lawrie and pitching spects... I just think with where we are organizationally, we could benefit more from a package of very talented young players rather than Sale himself... Flame away... Flame on. Sale was one of the singular most valuable players in baseball last season and he's 23(?) years old AND cheap. There is some chance you could trade him and get a combination of players to equal his WAR right away...which it is up to you whether a few players adding up to one player's WAR is a wash or not. As far as trading for prospects, I wouldn't even consider it. I think it is clear at this point that we're after a pennant.

In other nudes, Nate Silver's article today I think is particularly interesting since it talks about the potential shortcoming of his model, compares to other models like his, and gives more detail on the state vs national poll dilemma. fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 10:04 AM) Hahn has said he can win with a 9 figure number. So that means $100M plus. Using the breakdown I had in the other thread and updating it for the Peavy deal, Floyd option and Youk/Myers declines, it looks like this (I think)... OBLIGATED FOR 2013 BY CONTRACT (TOTAL: $96.25M): Alex Rios: $12.5M Adam Dunn: $15M Paul Konerko: $13.5M Jesse Crain: $4.5M Matt Thornton; $5.5M Alexei Ramirez: $7M John Danks: $14.25M Jake Peavy: $14.5M Gavin Floyd: $9.5M BUYOUTS (TOTAL: $4M): Kevin Youkilis: $1M Brett Myers: $3M That is $100.25M in obligations for 2013, at this point, by my math. That is without players eligible for arbitration (De Aza, Beckham), and any players in pre-Arb, that will cost about half a million each (Sale, Morel, Flowers, Jones, Reed, Santiago, Axelrod, JorDanks, Marinez, Omogrosso, Quintana, Veal, etc.). Correct me if I am missing anything here. The Sox will either need to boost payroll from last year, or trade some player(s). No other alternative at this point, unless they plan to drop most of those Arb and Pre-Arb guys, which clearly they will not do. While this is trifling a bit, I am fairly certain we are not on the hook for Youk's buyout and perhaps not Myers' either.

We have said it will be about the same as last year, though I have some suspicion that if we planned to increase it...we wouldn't say. You know, leverage and stuff.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 09:30 AM) I thought it was a lock that Rivera was coming back in 2013, because he didn't want to end his career with an injury like that. Rivera yes, Riviera no

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 09:28 AM) As far as I can tell, the NCAA has free agency. The players sign with the schools they want to sign with. Yep, 4 year deals with opt-out clauses at the penalty of one year or option to go to the minors

White Sox land Hamilton, Wright, Greinke, Soriano without increasing payroll

If anyone ever had doubts about whether we should have matched the Marlins deal for Buehrle, this is why we didn't. If you want to compare those two deals/decisions for the White Sox, I'm glad we had the foresight/good luck to get Peavy at this age and dollar amount instead of Buehrle.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 09:19 AM) There is also a time factor at play here, though I am not sure exactly how he uses that. Each day approaching the election, the leads any candidate has become more solid, for two reasons. One is early voting already underway, taking some play out of the number later. The other is that there is less chance as each day goes by of a trend-changing event. That's true. The interesting thing here is that normally polls will reflect a tightening race as we get closer to election day, but to my eyes it appears (at least in battleground states) it is simply moving towards Obama.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 09:07 AM) He updates in the evening or at night based on his Monte Carlo sims of the polls released that day, at least as far as I understand it. RCP lists the polls as they're released if you want to find out exactly what came out. Good tip. I don't go there often because their "method" is basically just averaging all of the polls with no adjustment for partisan lean, etc. I see that several polls came out today showing BO winning: MI +3, VA +2, VA -5, OH +5, FL +1, PA +4 (+/- reflects the incumbent's standing) Yesterday several polls came out showing basically a national tossup with 1 point spreads on the national, plus R-leaning Rasmussen with Romney +2. Yesterday also had another OH state poll with Obama +3. That's a good couple days of polling thus far for Obama, even if some of those state polls are leaning D a little bit. I'd still like to see Silver offer his thoughts on the early voting results coming in. I'm sure that they must be generally D-leaning for them to look like that.

Not sure what polls came out overnight, but Silver's odds for Obama jumped considerably since I went to bed last night. Electoral average from 294 to 299, odds of winning from 73 to 77. Average pop. vote now at 50.4-48.5

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 12:53 AM) I hope it is nasty. s*** happens like this past year where Danks was hurt and Floyd was out a bit as well and Q was crummy late in the season. Yeah, there is always a relatively high level of uncertainty with starting pitching compared to other positions...but you've gotta like where we stand right now.

The less the state government does, the better. The whole notion of state by state governance becomes more obsolete by the day.

Yep, the dollars are there to show him the respect he deserves. As long as he doesn't walk away looking like our b**** (or pissing off the MLBPA), he seems happy to do what he can to stay in Chicago.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 08:54 PM) I wish someone would just shut him the f*** up. Hey peckerhead, I have an idea, give that $5 million to people who just lost everything they ever had without being a little pathetic b****. How's that? I really thought I was going to read that he was going to send the $5M that direction...but no

QUOTE (SOXOBAMA @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 06:55 PM) Dems Crushing GOP In #NC--- Early Votes #NorthCarolina---- Dems 49.2% vs GOP: 31.2% #POLLS A Great Dem Surge In #NV EARLY VOTES---- #NEVADA 483,873 --- Dems 44.6% vs GOP 37.5% ---- 49.9% of 2012 Totals vs 2008 EARLY VOTES ---- #IOWA 497,725 --- Democrats + Obama 44.2% vs Republican + Romney 32.1% ---32.2% of Votes in Iowa vs 08 Totals #POLLS Would have to see how reliable that tends to be in predicting the results. I have no idea if one party or the other tends to turn out early

Obama should hammer away in the affected areas about Romney's anti-FEMA stance.

QUOTE (fathom @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 08:31 PM) Thrilled with the move, as I have a feeling the contracts this offseason are going to be insane. League's already getting 22.5 for 3 years from the Dodgers. I have to give Peavy a lot of credit, as he could have easily received deals for more years and money on the open market. I think we can officially state that the Sox won't be going into full rebuilding mode this offseason. ALL IN! err... APPRECIATE THE GAME! well... I don't know. f*** Detroit

mr. genius always keeps me rolling

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 05:11 PM) Floyds not coming back He's back until further notice.

If Peavy reaches certain IP totals, he comes back for '15 at $15M