Balta1701

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 04:26 PM) I totally understand what you're saying. Defense has become the fad, much like OPS in the early 2000's, post steroids. This is fact. Unless you really believe the Mariners gave Franklin Gutierrez 4 years and over 20 million because of his bat. I don't have a problem with paying a lot more than $4 years and $20 million for a defense first guy if he puts up the kind of offense he did in 2009 (.764 OPS), but this is a guy who put up a .666 OPS last year. Fangraphs thinks that Franklin Gutierrez was a $28 million player in 2009 and a $9 million player last year. You can win with guys like that, but if you're going to put them out there, you need offense somewhere else.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 04:19 PM) No, you can't. Unless you want to ignore Paul's '01, '02, '04 and '06 seasons. Even in what could be considered 'off' years he was still an .840 plus OPS guy in '07 and '09. Outside of '03, where PK for some reason was mind-f***ed, and '08 when he was battling nagging injuries, he's been pretty damn consistent. PK14 was recovering from a broken foot throughout most of the first half of 2003. He broke it down the stretch in 2002 and played through it, and after the 03 season was over he casually told people that it was never really healthy. No I can't find a link for this, the story is just too old.

QUOTE (flippedoutpunk @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 04:15 PM) correct me if im wrong but from my understanding of rumors heard 'round tech web sites, apple will be releasing a new, 4G-capable iphone this coming summer. So verizon is going to get a bunch of people to buy into their iphone 4 in february, only to have apple release a newer model only a couple months later? i know its only a rumor at this point but if it proves to be true i would be really upset with my 2 year obligation to this already outdated phone if i were switch to verizon right away. That is currently the rumor. Apple certainly has been releasing updated iPhones every year, and there's no obvious reason now why the next version would be only available on AT&T, or why it would have a bunch of features that are incompatible with Verizon.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 03:57 PM) Balta, I just told you I like the Pats here too. All I'm doing here is trying to see why other people like the Jets.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 04:06 PM) I know he was hurt in '09. Was he hurt last year? He's coming back from the Tommy John surgery. When he got to AA last year, he put up a 6.54 ERA and he's pitched 77 innings combined since 2008. He's a ways away still.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 04:05 PM) I didn't say a damn thing about Moneyball. You missed the point of my post.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 03:32 PM) He has been an elite defender his entire career. What you're doing is completely ignoring that fact. It's not just "modern stats" that favor his play, but finally the realization, after the steroids era, that defense is half of the game as well. There's a couple different currents underlying the whole "Moneyball" movement. Part of it has been the idea that advanced stats can provide new information that can help build winning teams...but the other part of it is using these stats to find hidden value. Adrian Beltre is being paid like an MVP because he's an elite defender and an average bat, and he's getting that money entirely because that's what the advanced stats say about him. That's that half of the moneyball story, but it's not the other half. When everyone is using the same stats and paying huge contracts based on them, then trying to sign players based on those stats is a losing game, because you're not finding value.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 03:44 PM) Not to mention DLS in the 'pen. And maybe we don't even trade for Jackson with Gonzalez in the fold. Meaning we'd have two quality, cheap and team-controlled pitchers for the next 5-6 years in Gonzalez and Hudson with Sale waiting in the wings. At the very least we'd have some serious trade bait. But let's not go there. That first Swisher trade makes me sick. Really, DLS in the pen? We'd keep him healthy when the A's couldn't?

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 03:34 PM) But what happened in week 2? I love the Pats in this one as well, but you can't pretend that the Jets aren't capable of winning the game, because they already have won this matchup once this season. I can say that was a different Pats team. Not only were they still dealing with Moss's crap, but they were trying to play a different style of game. Green-Ellis and their TE's hadn't started to come of age yet, and their offense hadn't found that short passing game rhythm that it was using to destroy teams later in the season. Can you tell me that the Jets are a better team now than they were only a couple weeks ago?

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 03:11 PM) Same basic way they hung with the Colts. Run the ball down their throats and play great defense. I've been higher on the Jets all season than most so I certainly know this isn't going to a popular pick but I really believe they're going to knock off NE tomorrow. I also still believe the Pats have a lot of flaws that can be exposed even though they pretty much beat the crap out of everyone in the regular season. We'll obviously find out tomorrow but I really do expect to see the Jets win a close one. The question I have to ask is...what happened the last time out? The Jets couldn't slow Brady down at all.

Link

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 03:06 PM) Jets by a fg or so. Can you spell out how the Jets are going to hang with the Pats on the field? I don't doubt you could be right, I'm just genuinely curious.

QUOTE (Elgin Slim @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 02:46 PM) Didn't we have this argument in another thread? However is there no value in an upgrade in talent, as well as a guy who has(to a certain degree) a major league track record? If you're arguing that Jackson is basically an $8.5MM, 27 year old "prospect" then I can somewhat agree with that point of view. The Yankees would get a slight to moderate upgrade in talent, I think most would agree on that...but it still leaves their biggest hole unfixed and it gives up talent to do so.

QUOTE (Elgin Slim @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 02:30 PM) If KW can get them to throw in Nova, Betances, or Brackman with Joba, then fine, make the deal. Otherwise no. I had this idea earlier, but it was predicated on getting one of the three pitchers stated in return as well. No prospect that can start now, no deal. The obvious problem with any deal that requires the Yankees to send us a starter back is that it's a bad deal for the Yankees. They need people who can be starting pitchers, even if they're not good. If they're trading for starting pitchers, they can't afford to give one up.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 02:09 PM) Why didn't he show up in 2009? Because he didn't wear protection.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 01:36 PM) Beltre is like the poster boy for the player who shows up in his contract year and takes the rest of the time off. I know what you're saying and I 1/2 feel the same way...but he also is a poster-boy for the modern stats...which love him, especially on defense. I feel like if he has a season like last year, he's a legitimate, $15 million a year player, but he's had 2 of those seasons in his career. In all the other years, he's been sorta an .800-ish OPS bat with solid defense. In a ballpark like the Cell, maybe that translates to .825-.850ish OPS, so we're talking good, but not the kind of bat that can carry a team, which is what I'm hoping for if I'm spending $18 million a year. For a team that has a lot of resources and also has other major threats in their lineup where they don't need him to be their biggest bat, they'd be in good shape with him. For a team like us though...I just don't think it's a good use of our dollars.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 11:55 AM) You really don't know that he's going to be able to get more than $8 million per year, especially considering the market for veterans over the past several seasons. In fact, I highly doubt that he would get more than $8 million per year in his age 36 season, and if there was an increase, it would probably be very negligible. Additionally, if he did have a season in which he was that marketable, it probably means that the plan works, the team made the playoffs, and you have more revenue available to you. It's also very possible that you could simply sign another player that is undervalued on the marketplace. The Sox have been very good at doing so ini their recent history. Lee signed a 1 year, $7.25 million deal this season, which can go up to $10 million in incentives. That's off a season where he struggled with back problems the whole first half. You can't expect me to believe that he'll have a good enough season that we'd want him back and then simultaneously he'll have to take less than $8 million for a 1 year deal next offseason.

Here's one of the many articles on how the Twins were looking at Beltre.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 11:57 AM) How could you possibly be in a position to know what they could and could not do with Adrian Beltre throughout the entire length of his contract with Seattle? And secondly, if he's playing in our ballpark, chances are his offensive numbers are going to be much stronger than they were in Seattle, just as they were in Boston last season. They made absolutely no secret about the fact that they absolutely hated that deal in Seattle. They tried to trade him for anything if someone else would take the contract. He'd have been a Twin in 2008 if he hadn't been making so much money. Mariners fans hated his game. Beltre on brink of being a bust

I know the new defensive metrics are all the rage...but really, we've seen this story before on this exact player. Seattle wanted to trade Beltre basically from the first month of the first season of his last big contract, and they never could, despite him only making $12 mil a season on that deal.

Even if he's not extended, Alexei Ramirez is under the Sox's control for 3 more seasons also.

Because then you lose your big advantage...the fact that it's cheap. You're then on to paying more for Lee + Beltre in 2012 than you are for Konerko + Dunn + Morel in 2012, and if DLee has a good season to the point that you'd want him back, he may well be looking for a 2-3 year deal.

BTW, our bullpen right now is set up as: Thornton Sale Ohman Pena Crain Santos Infante Like the kids or not...Infante belongs in the bullpen this year. He had a solid year last year and got himself up to the big leagues. Replacing him with Joba is probably at best a marginal upgrade, just because there's a lot of additional depth out there.

"Freeing up money" doesn't help the Sox win games this season, I'd just like to note that again.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 15, 2011 -> 10:57 AM) But Balta brought up a good point. Even if Thome does a great job next year, you'll still have a hole at DH and huge need for left-handed pop the following season. That's a need we can't fill from within anytime soon, which means back to free agency or the trade market. Are you really going to find a better short-term and long-term option than Dunn next year? I don't think so, at least not at the years and salary we signed him at. At least to me, that's why I said that it translates to a rapid rebuilding period. Shack's whole idea there is based on the premise that both Lee and Thome will be 1 year bargains and Beltre will not under-perform. If all of those are true, then yes, for next year, Lee/Thome/Beltre would outperform Dunn/Konerko/Morel. However, as you note here, even if that happens...in 2012, we're still paying Beltre $18 million a season, but we're back to having 2 other holes. Viciedo could possibly be ready to fill a 1b hole there, but the reality is that the team would have itself locked into a long-term contract at 3b while being right back where it was this offseason on the other 2 positions. THat's why I called it another plausible rebuilding process starting next offseason.