Balta1701

If you actually had a nationwide system to do it, you could do contact tracing involving apps and cell phones for international travelers, South Korea and Australia have rolled out systems like that for their own populations. But again, Washington State can't do that alone and have a different app than Florida, we'd need a functioning national government effort.

Isn't this the year Lauri is extension eligible/RFA next year?

This is why you need to get your # of new cases down low and number of tests/tracing high. It's the only shot. If your state isn't doing that, then yes, it will start spreading like wildfire. PS: it is insanity that there are no national guidelines or leadership for this, since roads, you know, cross state lines.

I would call the barber and ask what cleaning and protection procedures they are going to follow.

Completely. 0.2% of New York City has died. That would be a higher rate of death than the Flu, and that's if everyone had it. Using tests that may still have lots of false positives for the presence or absence of antibodies, New York City has at most 25% of its people infected, meaning at the very least this is 4x as deadly as the flu.

No I actually saw that earlier and knew exactly what it was and knew exactly what they said already and that it was completely inconsistent with global data that I've been paying attention to. Anyone, and I mean anyone, who is dumb enough to say "this is a bad flu season", when we have a Vietnam war of deaths in a month and half, needs to be shot down and scoffed at because they are putting people's lives at risk.

Waste of time.

Don't forget the New York example though. They went from saying "We have 1000+ ICU Beds in this state" confidently in early March to deploying the national guard to isolate a community 2 weeks later, and then it only got worse from there. SIngapore went from thinking they had successfully dealt with it to having 1000 new cases a day in a 2 week period. Japan did something similar.

It depends on what the additional response is. If you have hundreds, or thousands of cases in your state, and you aren't actively tracking how each individual one is being transmitted, then when you reopen things and people begin taking the message that contact is safe to heart, then you will rapidly get explosions of new cases because somewhere along the line you're going to start getting those massive spreading events. If you get your state down to maybe 10-20 cases (not even as strict as in Wuhan), then you can actually deploy tracking and tracing and at least have a shot at slowing it down. Australia just unveiled their tracking and tracing app, is your state doing that? Does your state have the resources to, every time a new case crops up, publicly identify the thousands of people they might have come into contact with over the last week, isolate them for a few days, and then test every one of them to see who needs a multi-week quarantine? Even this detail was insufficient to prevent a second outbreak in Singapore, but it still has slowed it in many countries. If your state is not prepared to do this, then yes, there is a good chance that places like Texas, Iowa, Florida, Tennessee, places that are now opening their doors to force low-wage workers back to business, they have done nothing but delay the inevitable. Texas is currently showing 700+ new cases tested for per day, and they have one of the lowest testing rates in teh country so it's almost certain they're missing a substantial number. So, the order today...is saying yeah there's a number of people we're ok with killing.

Texas stay at home order now officially expires April 30. Limited capacity to 25% but all businesses, restaurants, movie theaters malls are allowed to reopen. May 18 will allow 50% occupancy - only 2.5 weeks later.

Right now, the total number of positive tests in the US is 940,000, only 0.3% of the population, so it is also entirely possible that there are "Way more people having it than we realize" and still "an overwhelming number of people have no exposure and re-opening moderate areas will allow much larger second waves if people actually go out". If 1% of the US had exposure, that would be 3x the number actually tested positive, but then 99% of the population could still be waiting to be exposed. RIght now, New York has at most 25% of their population exposed, so New York has plenty of unexposed people to repeat the current outbreak nightmare there if they went back to normal business.

What's particularly nasty is that you won't realize whether this has become an epic mistake for a couple of weeks. New York made their mistakes March 10-24, but weren't to 500 deaths/day until about 3 weeks after that.

You're right, that would pretty much remove any of these good feelings.

There's a pretty convincing case that a dominant feature of New York's disaster was infighting and mixed messages between DiBlasio, Cuomo, Trump, and the scientists/health officials. To the point that the majority of this was preventable despite everything else you say. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leaders-let-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not

Worth considering that excess deaths due to people taking anti-malaria drugs and triggering heart conditions would be counted here but maybe not recognized in any other way.

These moves by the Bulls seem so much the correct moves that I'm a little dumbfounded, confused, and wondering what secret horrible mistake they will have turned out to make. It's weird.

New York City did antibody tests on a moderately large population using an FDA-approved test and found that 20% of people in the city tested positive for antibodies. If you do some backwards math, assume there's a margin of error on the tests, and then note that deaths lag after infections by a week or two, you wind up with that 1% death rate that has been the most plausible estimate for months. It's entirely possible that some areas are seeing more specific outbreaks in at-risk areas than New York city did, but if the death rate is 1-2% overall as seen in New York, then 2.5-5 million infections is the current range for the total US incidence since it began. That, to me, implies that less than 1/2 of the people who have had exposure actually ever tested positive.

Noble. The Noble prize.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leaders-let-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/04/25/calls-to-poison-centers-spike--after-the-presidents-comments-about-using-disinfectants-to-treat-coronavirus/#62e118af1157 And there we go. In NY city alonne he personally got about 20 people to drink stuff in their cleaning supply cabinet.

This is flat-out untrue. Joe Biden was clearly, significantly polling stronger than Sanders. Out of something like 50 polls taken after everyone else was out of the race, I believe there were 0 with Biden showing worse than Sanders. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html same story.

Hillary Clinton was a fine candidate if you bothered to look into anything at all about her, but no you couldn't be troubled to. When people like you asked what the worst was that could happen when you didn't vote for the professional woman, well here's your answer.

That's literally, exactly, to the letter, how we have the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the world. Because people who were against him didn't actually vote for the opposition, and they let their represntatives spend years doing things to restrict other people's voting rights.