Balta1701

I would imagine that, rather than the networks agreeing to fixed dollar amounts, everyone would have to agree to a percentage of revenue since no one would really know what would be coming in until it actually came in. I could see this being a stumbling block for baseball since they've never agreed to a "Revenue split" like the other leagues, but if they're in "gun to their head/come up with an agreement now or no one gets anything all year" territory, anyone who tries to be stubborn winds up losing.

If you've got a situation where the major networks come in and offer a substantial slice of their revenue, and the owners and players have to figure out whether they are going to argue for weeks and get nothing or get ST started and get something, those compromises will happen extremely quickly. Both sides would be motivated.

If you could find a way to get these leagues going right now, you could do a rapid negotiation with the major networks for the content and, with so little competition on the airwaves (HORSE Still needs Bird and Jordan), there's a fortune to be made.

If there's some way to make this work, the union and the owners will get to choose rapidly between figuring out a way to make the revenue split work or having 0 revenue while they discuss it.

If you check this post - https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/ - it may actually not be possible to increase testing any further. All of the private labs that can do them are now backlogged, and since we didn't stockpile testing supplies in February and March, we are now starting to hit the limits of the rate at which tests can be run.

for a different way of saying it - if Robert had 2 straight seasons of putting up 1.000+ OPS numbers in the minors and had spent more of last year at Charlotte doing so, would he be the consensus top prospect above Franco?

Reason #2 assumes there is baseball in 2020.

Here's one more for you. If Luis Robert had stayed healthy in 2018...would this be a different question?

What a mess this is going to be... https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/

However you draw the line - IMO more important is that you have ramped up your testing capacity and your local health departments are capable of deploying rapid tracing everywhere. It's very clear you won't be able to fully eliminate it any time soon, so you have to be ready to manage the response to new cases before you open any doors. If you have 1 case pop up in a rural county somewhere, Can you test every person who was at any spot where the new patient was within the last 4-5 days? That's rapid deployment of hundreds of tests. Can you then identify how they got it, because the person who transmitted it to them could have transmitted it to many others, and then trace back that person's motion before one of those cases leads to an explosion somewhere? Even the well-run countries are struggling with this, and we've just got so many weaknesses.

I do not know what the answer to this is, because by the time you've recognized that one person had it, they've been exposed to the ball or their teammates and the opposition for several days, any of which could have become a transmission pathway. But, if the league has a solution to that which the Players Association agrees to (Thank god they're unionized), then they could make this work. If they can't overcome that issue, then there's no sports until there's a vaccine.

Was at spring training this year. In the Hospital on March 30.

If Jordan and Bird got into this HORSE tourney I would probably buy it on pay per view.

At this point there are probably people in your neighborhood stitching them, reusable ones are available on Etsy from your local folks. they won’t protect you at all if you wear it, but if everyone wears them and doesn’t change behavior as a response, then the mask catches some of the particles that infected people breathe out and you can reduce your chances of infecting a lot of people. But if it makes you touch your face more, or you take it off improperly, you raise your own risk by wearing it. So...yeah.

Even I can only watch so many Marvel films. (Ragnarok is on).

If people start thinking they allow you to open businesses and travel back up, yes. If they drop transmission by 25% and people feel more willing to travel with them and the effect of that is larger, then the worry they do more harm than good is real. (disclosure: I bought a 10 pack of masks a year ago when I was sick and still had to teach. I have 8 left and next dr appt and grocery run is Tuesday. These last me into June and I am masked. I want to buy a couple reusable ones to wear when walking dog, soon. So I believe in them, but only on top of shutdown orders, and I can tell you with confidence my neighbors aren’t obeying the rules so argh).

The networks are also struggling for new content right now as filming has shut down for most things and NBC has lost the olympics. The major networks would jump at live content right now.

Especially now that we are seeing second surges in the mask wearing countries, I think there’s not a lot of evidence that masks are making a big difference.

I disagree, for worse reasons. Data shows u guys in the Midwest shut down like bosses so great work with that (seriously), but I’m here in Trump country and between people not taking it seriously already and our state government following the “Americans want to work and sacrifice their grandparents!” Crap, there’s no way a second spike waits that long. It took 1-2 months after the first peak in these countries for the numbers to be going back up, and they’re enforcing policies with the military as of this week. We are so far from that here it’s not funny. The only way the second spike waits until October is if people maintain the lockdowns until July or August, and I can’t believe we are that responsible based on this state.

Yup, my thoughts exactly.

So the fact that basically all of the Asian countries that seemed like they contained the first wave are now struggling with a second wave and multiple clusters is deeply concerning. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12324356

Tens of percent. Probably less than 50. If you're a senior citizen, consider trying a pickup order or delivery. If you're 100% healthy and want to go first thing in the morning you could probably get away with that as they're disinfecting most stores overnight, but seriously, you're over 65? Go online, go to their website, do an order for pickup.

I think it’s 1-2% with a quality health care response. I think the freedom folks demanded in our heath care systen has made it uniquely bad compared to the rest of the western world, so our death numbers will be higher as a consequence. The undiagnosed cases make the percentage look higher at any given time, but the fact that the deaths come from people who are sick the longest, after some people have recovered, makes the death rate look lower at any given time. Until there is a valid treatment other than our lunatic leaders fraudulent study, you will see death rates of a couple percent.

I think it’s useful to start having these conversations because this billion dollar industry wants to figure out how to run itself in this mess, and without having these first conversations we can’t even figure out what the important problems are. The reaction of the isolated players is clearly one. We’ve also seen in Japan that their league started making preparations to open and then 3 of their players got it, shutting down those preparations. Aside from the fact that the federal government is useless there’s not much we are sure about right now, so you may as well start asking what it would take to open something, what the formats could be, and then watch to see how the problems develop. There are some obvious ones. Just think of basic things. One shortstop gets it, shows no symptoms, they throw the ball around the infield 10 times in a game and now even with distancing everyone on that team is exposed and so is anyone who is tagged at 2b. How do we manage that? I don’t know, but could there be some answer? Maybe. We don’t want every industry to shut down for 18 months, even I don’t want that and I think these idiots are about to kill another hundred thousand because they think they can reopen stuff in 4 weeks. So let’s start thinking through what the issues are, if the whole league doesn’t work then it doesn’t work, but at least we tried.

At this point, there really is strong evidence worldwide that it's not 1 person per 1000. 50% asymptomatic still seems at the upper limit compared to what most who have studied it have said but I can't rule it out, but to get to 1 person in 1000 as a death rate, you need >90% of people to have it to be asymptomatic. The US is reporting 4% mortality rates right now, and mortality rates lag behind infection rates, but I'd believe we'd plausibly wind up with at 2-3% casualty rate assuming we still avoid the hospital overwhelming. There's just no way that the US actually has 5 to 10 million cases right now, for the numbers you're suggesting - and just to go back to where this conversation started, the tests in Colorado would have shown a much higher rate of antibodies present if the US did.