BigSqwert

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Feb 20, 2008 -> 10:25 AM) I think what he is saying is that they undecided delegates will lean Obama and I bet many of the decided Clinton delegates will switch if he starts to pull ahead. Bingo. Of the 700 or 800 still undecided I don't see a scenario where they'd all, or mostly, break for Clinton. The argument that she'd be a better matchup in November isn't even holding water anymore. Obama is winning red states, independents, and disenfranchised republicans.

QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 20, 2008 -> 10:07 AM) I do not wish to put words in Kap's mouth, but I believe what he is implying, and has for weeks, is even as the under dog, she has the inside track to still be the nominee. Primaries are a relatively new way for parties to select their candidate. Historically the party heavyweights got together and selected a nominee at their convention. There are still remnants of that system in place. Primaries are not mentioned in the Constitution, not part of our Bill of Rights. So what Kap is saying, is not too far fetched and anyone familiar with "party politics" and especially "machine politics" knows is sometimes the public doesn't get what they want, they get what the true stakeholders want. In this case the stakeholders are the superdelegates who are the biggest contributors, elected officials of that party, country chairpersons, etc. As many Obama supporters have made clear, they will not support the party if their guy is not the nominee. Therefor, they really are not Democrats, they are just there for Obama. How much voice should the party give non members of the party versus the party faithful who will be there campaigning for all the Dem candidates? I completely understand your logic but the only way I could see it work is if the last 10 races were close. She is getting her ass handed to her. It is quite obvious that a big shift of momentum is going towards Obama's camp. I just couldn't see how the superdelegates would arbitrarily all begin to shift towards Clinton for no apparent reason. It would be the demise for the Democratic party....at least in the short term. She would literally need to begin getting landslide victories on March 4th and beyond in order for that tactic to work for her and I highly doubt that will happen.

He seems to be doing well against the Clinton attack machine. In fact he practically had more votes in Wisconsin than Hillarity and the '100 years war advocate' combined.

QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 20, 2008 -> 09:33 AM) Until it is mathamatically over, she should stay and battle. That is what we want our President to do and it is what we should expect from candidates. Perhaps Obama would have packed it in if he was in her shoes, but I doubt it. That wasn't my argument. I was debating Kap regarding his thought process that she will still be the nominee because she'd strongarm the superdelegates. I just don't see how she is still the front runner like he is implying.

QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 20, 2008 -> 08:25 AM) The Clintons don't give a damn about ANYTHING except themselves. And they will do what it takes to get what they want, the rest of the political world be damned. I still fail to understand why that's such a foreign concept. The bottom line is that the superdelegates are generally old party establishment, and the Clintons will strong arm these people. The superdelegate concept is there for NO other reason then to override the "people's choice" when the party deems it necessary. Guess what? The party just might deem it necessary. When your opponent is blowing you out state after state, you are losing the popular vote, you are losing in pledged delegates, you are losing in national polls, and you are losing in head to head matchups against McCain then please explain to me how you can strongarm anyone. I fail to see how the party could feasibly overturn all of this and give the win to Clinton. It would destroy the party ajd everyone knows that. Barring something from left field (i.e., Obama is revealed to be a child pornographer) then I can't see her winning. None of her tactics are working anymore.

QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 20, 2008 -> 07:53 AM) If the situation were reversed, do you believe Obama would drop from the race? Perhaps but I wouldn't *STILL* be convinced that he'd win.

QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 20, 2008 -> 07:19 AM) I'm *STILL* convinced Hillarity will win. 10 blowouts in a row and he's eating into her base. I just can't see how you don't see the writing on the wall.

Not sure if this was mentioned but Obama almost has as many votes in Wisconsin as Clinton and McCain combined.

QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 19, 2008 -> 10:20 PM) You didn't answer the question. No clue whatsoever why there is a primary there tonight. I asked this a few weeks ago in this thread. I thought cnn.com had a typo.

QUOTE(AngelasDaddy0427 @ Feb 19, 2008 -> 10:17 PM) Can someone explain to me why Washington State is holding a second contest? And if Hillary wins will this be the end of Barak's winning streak even though there are no delegates at stake? Even if she wins Washington the turnout is ridiculously low. No delegates involved. It would be pathetic if her campaign gloated about a win there tonight.

QUOTE(bmags @ Feb 19, 2008 -> 02:20 PM) well, i think it's certain she will lose Hawaii and Wisconsin at least. Other than that she might have a landslide tonight.

QUOTE(AngelasDaddy0427 @ Feb 19, 2008 -> 02:14 PM) I have a feeling Hillary will have landslide victories today which will set her up to coasting to the nomination. Which sucks because I can't stand her. I doubt you are correct. If she even wins they will be by small margins.

QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 18, 2008 -> 05:23 PM) Kind of like Obama accidentally using phrases from another candidate. Which candidate is he using phrases from?

I finally found a reason to vote for Hillary. Sorry Barack.

Read the rest

Another superdelegate defect switching to Obama.

QUOTE(Reddy @ Feb 15, 2008 -> 11:20 AM) i'm talking in the general. not right now. And regarding her being vetted here's a blurb from a spot-on article I just read... LINK

Edwards backers tilt toward Obama.

QUOTE(Reddy @ Feb 15, 2008 -> 10:41 AM) what i think is that in a general election, Hillary will be able to fight fire with fire. She'll fight like a muthaf*cka against McCain, and it will be seen as ok because she doesn't have this "nice guy" image she has to maintain like Obama does. Also, everybody already KNOWS the s*** about Clinton so nothing McCain pulls out will hurt her any MORE. With Obama, a lot of people still aren't AWARE of the skeletons in his closet and they'll be able to tear his pristine image to shreds. And they will. And will he be able to fight back while keeping his hopeful optimism? I dunno... He seems to be doing quite well without needing to be an attack dog. And remind me how much of an attack dog McCain was in 2000 when he was being smeared.

QUOTE(FlaSoxxJim @ Feb 15, 2008 -> 10:03 AM) The concern is that it is the Washington establishment-types that make up the big bulk of superdelegates, making them potential kingmakers in the kind of smokey backroom deal that would give fellow establishment-type Clinton the nomination despite Obama's winning the popular vote and the regular delegates. I couldn't believe that the Democratic Party and Dean would allow something like that to occur. The uproar would be disastrous for the party and would certainly doom any chance of a Dem in the White House in 2009.

QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 15, 2008 -> 09:46 AM) I *DO* think that the superdelagates will still go her way, en masse. Since Super Tuesday he has gotten more superdelegates then her and a couple of hers have already switched over to him. I'm having trouble understanding why that trend would all of a sudden reverse after he wins Wisconsin, Hawaii and possibly Texas.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Feb 15, 2008 -> 09:29 AM) You guys really do believe Obama is going to beat the Clinton machine, don't you? I absolutely think he will beat her. Texas will be close and he might actually win. That basically ruins her chances to win the delegate count and there's no way the superdelegates will break for the losing candidate en masse. QUOTE(YASNY @ Feb 15, 2008 -> 09:29 AM) One of two things will happen. 1. Some way, shape or form the Machine will wheel and deal to get the nomination. They'll offer Obama the VP so they can put the token n***** in his place after the inauguration. I predict race riots if this happens. I do not see that happening unless she has the pledged delegate lead. Her chances of getting the lead are slim. QUOTE(YASNY @ Feb 15, 2008 -> 09:29 AM) 2. Obama gets the nomination and Hillary gets VP. A few months into his term, so "white racist skinhead" assasinates Obama. Net Result: Hillary can be POTUS for 11.5 years. No way she will be his VP.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Feb 15, 2008 -> 09:21 AM) You're preaching to the choir My point is that the polls today are not a good snap shot of what will likely occur 2 weeks from Tuesday. She was up in Maine by 37 points not too long ago and we saw what happened there.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Feb 15, 2008 -> 09:16 AM) I hate polls. so inaccurite There's still 2 and half weeks until March 4th. He is focusing his efforts on the upcoming primaries/caucuses in Wisconsin and Hawaii. Starting next Tuesday he will be visiting Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. Generally, the more exposure he has the more people like him.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Feb 15, 2008 -> 09:12 AM) uh oh! Texas Poll.... Clinton - 54 Obama - 38 And there's this one.