NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 04:06 PM) I really can't take two guys A Ball numbers and use them to define expectations down the road. I think everyone involved here has said he probably won't be that good this year, and it could be years, if ever, before he is any good. The reality is, if he does stick out the team for this season, by very definition his chances of being on the team in 2015 are way higher than Kevan Smith, or any other catcher in the minor leagues, no matter what their A ball numbers looked like. Those numbers can be a useful too, but they sure as heck aren't the be all, end all. I remember making that mistake in comparing Jeff Bajenaru's AAA numbers to some guy in AA named Bobby Jenks, because they were favorable to Bajenaru. Well first, you can certainly take some evaluation from multiple years of two players in A and A+, when they are at the same position and a similar age. Especially if you look at the right numbers. You can't just throw out those numbers, they do mean something. Baj and Jenks had very different paths through the minors. You think sticking with the team in 2014 means he's got an inside ticket - and there is some truth to that. But it isn't as cut and dried as people think. Smith gets to develop and move up, while Nieto is likely to be overwhelmed. You want a comparison, look at Jesus Flores, who took this route and never put it together to be a starter. I think a year from now, barring injuries or trades obviously, that Smith is just as likely to have a shot at the team as Nieto does. Smith looks like a better prospect to me overall, if only by a little, which is offset by Nieto's early exposure to the majors. And after 10/1 of this year, the Sox don't have to keep Nieto on the active roster any more than they do Smith.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 04:01 PM) Why should Smith be mentioned though? We all know that Nieto wouldn't be on the ML club if he didn't have to be. I've probably been the most bullish poster on this site all along re Nieto, but I don't think he's ready. It's just worth the risk. We can send him to AA or AAA next year. Yes, his development could get stunted - but Nieto's up for it, under advice of his agent, so I'm not worried about the human aspect of it. And from the Sox perspective, if he gets stunted, nothing lost. One other factor to consider....this substantially increases our leverage for a trade. Rizzo wasn't happy losing him (reading between the lines), he'd probably demand a real prospect in return; Rizzo is renown for being difficult as it is. Hahn basically said as much the other day. At this point, we've shown that we're willing to ride Nieto on the ML roster, which should decrease Rizzo's demands in a trade. Smith is mentioned for the reasons I've stated, and that people seem to ignore - in terms of their prospect profile, their performance per level, and their prospects of being a future piece with the Sox are very similar. As for a trade, if Nieto goes to Chicago for Opening Day, there is no longer a trade happening. It means, first, as you said, Rizzo is probably being a jerk about it so the demands are too high. Second, if the Sox call Rizzo's bluff and keep him for April at least, then they're going to ride him out for a while. If he is terrible for a few months, unless the team is in contention and really needs the upgrade at backup C, they might as well ride him the rest of the year. Basically, if a trade isn't happening by 3/31, then it isn't happening. So the leverage aspect is irrelevant at that point. Of course, something people aren't saying here... it is still possible a trade occurs before 3/31. There could be a lot of posturing, and Rizzo may call Hahn Friday (realizing Hahn is willing to call the bluff), and makes a last-ditch offer so that he gets SOMETHING for Nieto.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 03:47 PM) If Nieto had been in the Sox organization all along, he wouldn't be in the majors. That is why the comp doesn't work. I get the numerical similarities and all, but the situations can't really be compared because Nieto's situation is unique. It's actually a very strong comp in terms of their prospects for the future. The Rule V aspect is the wildcard. People can debate that part all day, but the key thing here isn't that Smith should have had the job - he shouldn't. It is that people's expectations of Nieto should be tempered, and Smith is a good description of why. Further, while Nieto may be with the team this year, that doesn't mean he's likely to be a starting C with the club in 2015. I think his chances at that are only as likely as Smith's. That's the long-term view, for me.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 03:36 PM) Given the 2 possibilities...screwing him up but keeping him in our system, and not having him in our system at all...1 of those options has a nonzero chance of him contributing long term to the white sox, while the other does not. Yes, which is why they kept him. I'm not arguing that, with him in camp, this wasn't the best way to keep him. I just have doubts about his readiness, and about his future after this year. And I found it interesting how much interest he's getting, while a very similar prospect isn't mentioned. That was all I was really going for.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 03:31 PM) The reality is that we don't care about "screwing up Neito's development" unless we get to keep him. Interesting circular logic. If we assume that the ideal route - keeping him in our minors - is out of the picture... then the alternatives aren't pretty either way.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 03:28 PM) I don't think you ever mentioned that besides the Rule V thing is the fact Phegley and Smith are righties and the Sox think Nieto is a better lefthanded hitter than righthanded. If all else is equal (besides the Rule V ) the fact we lack lefthanders counts for something. Sort of. If you are looking at 2014 purely, then yeah, he complements Flowers better since he can hit left-handed. Wasn't really looking at it purely short-term though. My view is, they are really pretty similar prospects, so if you think they both have a chance to start in the future, your focus should be on development and overall value.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 03:23 PM) Would Kevan have the poise to come to the MLB and work through failure? Does he already have the defensive ability to be in the MLB? I don't know either one so those are serious questions. The Sox must be confident that Nieto can handle it at least defensively to be able to stick at the MLB level. They will shelter his hitting if flowers can play most of the time. It's really hard to say with two guys that haven't played above A ball. The Sox obviously think Nieto has that poise, or they wouldn't be doing this, even with him as a backup. I personally think Smith has it too, but I don't see him work with the pitchers every day. In terms of in-game defense, everything I see tells me they are probably on about the same footing. But again, I don't see them every day in camp. Hitting-wise I think Smith is more ready than Nieto, but I also think neither one is really ready yet.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 03:15 PM) I think there is a maturity factor as well. It make just be blowing smoke up the fans a$% but for this to work he has to be very poised. There is a personality besides the numbers that must be present. It sounds like the defense is there already. The Sox must be confident the flowers is healthy and Nieto will only play once a week or so. Intangibles are key for any player, but catchers particularly. I've met and spoken with Kevan, but not Adrian. I think Kevan Smith has "it" as far as the personality goes - but I haven't seen him working with the pitchers.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 03:06 PM) "Ready" is a relative term. Nieto is in the majors because it's the only way we could steal him from the Nats and we're a rebuilding team so it doesn't matter what actually happens in the season. I will bet, though, that Nieto puts up a better OBP than Phegley's .223 last year. There were like 7 or 8 pitchers who were better hitters than Phegley last year. Sure, we all know the reason he's there is primarily the Rule V thing. I said that in the article too. But that point has been beaten into submission, so I wanted to look at the two players as compared in a vacuum, just to make an illustration. Also yeah, hard for anyone not to do better than what was there last year. But Phegley may have beaten that this year too, and Gimenez probably would. My biggest concern though, is this reversed development curve idea the Sox are trying for with Nieto has a high likelihood of backfiring in terms of his development. If they think he's a real potential future starter, that is.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 02:48 PM) Do you watch a lot of basketball? To me that was one of the top 2-3 games of the entire season in terms of quality of play from both teams for 40 minutes. College bball always has some ugly shots/turnovers, but that's to be expected since they're not professional level players, and those that are still haven't mastered the game. There was a time I watched a ton. Last few years? Just a little. As I said, being honest, I hadn't watched much of either team. But I've been watching this tournament a lot, more than the last few years, and neither of those teams looked to me like a squad worthy of their hype. That's compared to other teams I watched. I do think coaching and approach are amplified in their importance in the tourney.

So my post earlier inspired me to write a piece for FutureSox. It's up now for your perusal. The article doesn't go in-depth on roster dynamics, Rule V considerations, or org philosophy. Just a nearly-pure comparison piece, at Smith vs Nieto. For my money, they are pretty darn similar, and I think in a vacuum, Smith is probably more ready than Nieto is. Just my opinion. What is lacking is better information on how they are both doing with handling a pitching staff.

I'll go with 80. But with very little confidence - hard team to predict.

I'll be there. Talking upper 50's with 30% chance of showers, at this point. As long as it stays fairly dry, I'll happilt take upper 50's.

Article here. Discuss.

I just want to point this out, something to think about... Adrian Nieto last year, age 23, 6th MiLB year, High A: .282/.371/.446, 11 HR, 18.3% K/PA Kevan Smith last year, age 24, 3rd MiLB year, High A: .286/.370/.484, 12 HR, 14.9% K/PA Offensively, I am not convinced Nieto is any better than Smith at this point. In fact I'm fairly sure I'd take Smith's bat over Nieto. Defensively, Smith was considered raw, but also has improved and there are positive reports about his pitcher handling. His CS% in 2012 (2013 I can't find) was 33%, and he had 14 PB in 92 games. Nieto is considered better defensively overall, and the pitchers seem to like him in camp (which is big), but.... His CS% in 2012 (I can't find 2013 data) was 32%. He had 14 PB in 85 games. Numbers aren't the full story of course, especially with catchers. But looking at the body of work, I am not sure Nieto is any better as a total package than Kevan Smith would be. Similar hit and OBP results, Smith more power, Smith better contact rate, similar CS% numbers, and defensively I think Nieto may be at best only slightly better. And Nieto has had 3 more years to develop. Why are people convinced Nieto is ready for the majors and Smith isn't?

I have to admit I thought there was next to no chance of this happening. For that matter, I still think it is a pretty bad idea. They are trying the Flores route here (ironic, since that was the Nats), but I doubt it works. Someone asked Hahn about the possibility of a trade to keep Nieto in the minors, and he indicated that would be "difficult".

I thought it was odd, if you look at the AP version of the game story from yesterday - run on lots of sites - it says that Marcus Semien has "all but clinched a roster spot". Does that AP wire writer know something everyone else doesn't? I suspect he/she was just reading between the lines and making a stretched assumption. If Beckham is healthy, I think there is very little chance Semien is on the roster.

I've been saying for a while, I think Semien is ready. That said, with this club where it is, I think it benefits everyone to have Semien starting at SS/2B in Charlotte and Beckham in Chicago. Beckham can get his value up while Semien gets AAA AB's, which he can still use some of. Nothing is lost really, for the long term build of the team. Semien will be in Chicago this year, it doesn't need to be on Opening Day. If Beckham is terrible enough and one of Sanchez or Semien tears up Charlotte, you can release Beckham then. But if he's decent, you can get something for him in trade, and further develop the youngsters, which are both bonuses.

So I have to admit, I only saw a few minutes here and there of Kentucky during the regular season, and saw basically none of Wichita State (aside from highlights). But I watched the full Kentucky vs Wichita State game. My impressions of Kentucky is that they have a lot of talent, though not as much maybe as they are hyped to have. They have a ton of size and athelticism. They also play very lazy, and are either poorly coached and/or very uncoachable. Possibly just a lot of not-very-bright guys. Wichita State, to me, looked exactly like a team with enough athleticism, skills and novel game play to beat any medicore team and most good teams, but not enough size or talent to beat elite squads. And for that matter, I didn't think Wichita State looked very well-coached either. Kentucky looked like a team nearly impossible to seed, ranging from a 2 or 3 seed down to a play-in seed, depending on what they felt like doing that day. Wichita State looked like a 5 seed to me, in this tournament. Just my impressions.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Mar 24, 2014 -> 01:51 PM) The cuts were inevitable. They had a lot of extra names in the organization. Nowhere to put those guys. It's the end of an era for you, Matt, without Remenowsky. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 24, 2014 -> 01:55 PM) Yeah, he has to find a new NDFA to jump on His name is Mike Recchia. Well, technically Mike was drafted, but the Sox got him from Indy ball after he was out of affiliated baseball.

Released. Moving thread to archive.

Released. Will close thread and move to archive.

Wave of releases: RHP's Dan Remenowsky, Kyle Bellamy and Diogenes Rosario LHP Gregg Downing INF Brent Tanner A couple other guys are tweeting things that make me think they may be gone too, but trying to confirm. Remenowsky and Bellamy were, at one time, in our T25 prospects lists. Bellamy had shoulder surgery, twice. Remenowsky just ran into a wall at AAA on three different trips.

QUOTE (Pants Rowland @ Mar 24, 2014 -> 10:42 AM) I believe you are correct. On another note, I also split seats with a handful of people (two seats right behind the Scout Seats). Basically 8 shares of 10 games a piece. Seats are selected via a snake draft just before the season starts. We sometimes have someone flake out at the beginning of the season over whether they want to reup or not. I can keep you in mind if you are interested in trying it on a partial basis. I find 10 games is plenty for me. PM me and I will keep it archived for next year if you are interested. Thanks. With a large group like that, what do you do if the team makes the playoffs?

QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 04:07 PM) You sure about this? I thought you could opt to not purchase playoff tickets. I thought the only time that happened is if you asked for your money back instead of keeping it in your Sox account. I'm not 100% sure, but I don't think we paid for 2012 postseason tickets (lol) and still improved our seats. Maybe that changed then? I thought it was always that way, but maybe they stopped doing it that way. It would be worth asking.