Cknolls

Watch the Transport Index. If it can break the 2900-50 level it will crater. No support for 1000 points.

Time for some more good news: According to Bloomberg: Four banks in the Federal Home Loan Bank system have suspened dividends: Pittsburgh, Seattle San Francisco and now Atlanta. Contagion is spreading. Crisis is growing. A bailout will do nothing but kill Treasuries. Last night Moody's downgraded 1893 Alt-A tranches. Many went from AAA to CCC. Alt-A is likely our next BIG problem, which could pose a problem for WFC, who inhaled $130 billion worth of Alt-A with the WB purchase.

QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Jan 29, 2009 -> 11:53 PM) That 40% of Americans make on average about 24k a year. How much revenue do you expect to squeeze out of them? Just DO NOT CALL IT A TAX CUT. OK. IF YOU DON"T PAY INCOME TAXES IT IS NOT A TAX CUT. And don't tell me payroll taxes, state and local taxes, blah blah blah.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 29, 2009 -> 07:03 PM) Why should he care? He just handed out 820 billion in bonuses. My tally has Obama at 1.170 trillion so far. Remember he got the second 350 from the TARP. Not bad for ten days work.

Well, new admin. still fudging numbers. Good to see, consistency is good. GDP, a joke. Not good even though "they" say it beat expectations. GDP = consumption + gross investment + (exports-imports). Durable goods were down 22.4%, non-durables down 7.1%. Exports down 19.7%(Global Depression?) Why the upside surprise?.......Federal Spending rose 5.8% Another positive "surprise" was that inventories rose. Just what we need, right, more stuff on the shelves going unsold in a Recssion/Depression.

The bond mkt loves the idea of the stimulus, no? ..... Corporates are trading inside of Treasuries. How can corporates trade with a yield BELOW treasuries? Aren't Treasuries safe? Perhaps, perhaps not. When you look at JNJ's balance sheet, you know what you are getting. When you look inside the Treasury, particularly if you chuck in all of the bad bank assets inside of FDIC/TREASURY, you see a hunk of junk. Still very bearish on treasuries. Even with the gov't. saying they will purchase more to keep rates down. That didn't work so well the first time. So if there is a pop in 30's i would sell into it. This is the next bubble waiting to pop.

More change we can believe in But this change I think I like: http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/2...term-cia-sites/

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 28, 2009 -> 11:31 AM) Please note; the large gap between federal spending and tax receipts through the end of 1936, and the rapid drop in government spending combined wiht increase in tax receipts after the 1936 election. Please also note the balanced budget that appears on there just before the 2nd contraction of the Depression era. The fact that you don't like data doesn't make it not exist. I don't believe I said a word about your data. I took issue with you trying to blame the Repubs, who numbered a few, as opposed to the Dems who had a super majority.

This bill is a gift to Republicans. Not a single one should vote in the affirmative for this slop. And in the election cycle 2010, print copies of parts of this bill like the one in my previous post to show constituents how awful the bill actually is/was.

And can we now call it $1.3 trillion "stimulus". We have to include the interest carried on the debt, right? Let's be TRANSPARENT boys.

From the bill: Provided further, That of the amount appropriated under this heading ["Prevention and Wellness Fund"] not less than $2,350,000,000 shall be transferred to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as follows: (1) not less than $954,000,000 shall be used as an additional amount to carry out the immunization program authorized by section 317(a), (j), and (k)(1) of the Public Health Service Act (‘‘section 317 immunization program’’), of which $649,900,000 shall be available on October 1, 2009; (2) not less than $296,000,000 shall be used as an additional amount to carry out Part A of title XIX of the Public Health Service Act, of which $148,000,000 shall be available on October 1, 2009; (3) not less than $545,000,000 shall be used as an additional amount to carry out chronic disease, health promotion, and genomics programs, as jointly determined by the Secretary of Health and Human Services ("Secretary") and the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ("Director"); (4) not less than $335,000,000 shall be used as an additional amount to carry out domestic HIV/AIDS, viral hepatitis, sexually-transmitted diseases, and tuberculosis prevention programs, as jointly determined by the Secretary and the Director; (5) not less than $60,000,000 shall be used as an additional amount to carry out environmental health programs, as jointly determined by the Secretary and the Director; (6) not less than $50,000,000 shall be used as an additional amount to carry out injury prevention and control programs, as jointly determined by the Secretary and the Director; (7) not less than $30,000,000 shall be used as an additional amount for public health workforce development activities, as jointly determined by the Secretary and the Director; (8) not less than $40,000,000 shall be used as an additional amount for the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health to carry out research activities within the National Occupational Research Agenda; and (9) not less than $40,000,000 shall be used as an additional amount for the National Center for Health Statistics: Provided further, That of the amount appropriated under this heading not less than $150,000,000 shall be available for an additional amount to carry out activities to implement a national action plan to prevent healthcare-associated infections, as determined by the Secretary, of which not less $50,000,000 shall be provided to States to implement healthcare-associated infection reduction strategies: Provided further, That of the amount appropriated under this heading $500,000,000 shall be used to carry out evidence-based clinical and community-based prevention and wellness strategies and public health workforce development activities authorized by the Public Health Service Act, as determined by the Secretary, that deliver specific, measurable health outcomes that address chronic and infectious disease rates and health disparities, which shall include evidence-based interventions in obesity, diabetes, heart disease, cancer, tobacco cessation and smoking prevention, and oral health, and which may be used for the Healthy Communities program administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other existing community-based programs administered by the Department of Health and Human Services. Of course, there is similiar stuff throughout the 647-page bill. Remember when Newt Gingrich and others were fighting Hillary Clinton's health care reform proposal? Gingrich's cry at that time was "Read the bill." He didn't have to spin it for people if he could just get them to read what was actually in Mrs. Clinton's proposal. Now Republicans are asking the same thing again: Read the bill. The only stimulus occurring from this is from a free hand.

that the big surge in government stimulus was between 1933-1936, after which, the President started listening to the Republicans and tried to balance out the federal budget. All 25 Repubs in the Senate in 1935-1937 or the 17 in the Senate from 1937-1939? Or maybe its the 103 Repubs in the House in 1935-1937 and the 89 in the House from 1937-1939. As Opposed to the 69 DEM Senators in 1935-1937 and 75 DEM Senators in 1937-1939. Or maybe its the 322 DEM reps in the house in 1935-1937 and the 333 DEM REPS in the HOUSE in 1937-1939. Who ever knew? Roosevelt was such a good listener, he was persuaded by two of the largest minorites in the history of Congress to balance the budget. Nice try. I'll sell that excuse though. Kind of the same excuse I would expect to follow for the Messiah.

Just reading a quote from an astute bond mkt man: "Is it me or does GS run in front of every major piece of news and major announcements as it regards the credit crisis? Like bad bank idea. I guess its just me......Or...perhapsnot and we should just use it as a barometerfor future economic stimulus/manipulation. Call me a cynic, but there is most definitely a correlation."

Before he was appointed to be the head of the White House’s National Economic Council Larry Summers wrote (thanks to The Atlantic for the link): Poorly provided fiscal stimulus can have worse side effects than the disease that is to be cured. This suggests close attention to three issues: … Third, fiscal stimulus, to be maximally effective, must be clearly and credibly temporary – with no significant adverse impact on the deficit for more than a year or so after implementation. Otherwise it risks being counterproductive by raising the spectre of enlarged future deficits pushing up longer-term interest rates and undermining confidence and longer-term growth prospects.

How about any baseline budget item that increases in the stimulus has to be retroactive to 2008's baseline?

What restrictions will be put on the states that are given TARP money? My guess is none.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Jan 27, 2009 -> 09:32 AM) Based on the economic climate of the last 12 months that plane should have been scratched off their wish list several months ago. They didn't need to wait until the Obama administration pressured them. Waiting for Obama administration to pressure the owners of ONE BANK UNITED to sell the house they own on the Pacific Ocean. Actually the house is owned by an LLC that is headed by the owner and his wife. The bank also pays for a Porsche for this guy. It will probaly be on the news tonight. Or maybe we have to ask Barney Frank.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Jan 27, 2009 -> 09:57 AM) What do you think of this plan? It sounds pretty excessive to me but if I could drop from 6.25% down to 4 hell I'd jump all over that s***. I think it is a great plan. The housing industry is the problem with the economy. Anything that would allow a homeowner to cut their payment, if Sen. Ensign's figures are correct, by $400/mo or more, is an instant tax cut without the stigma of a tax cut. The amount of money that would flow into the economy from this would be substantial.

So when does President ETHICS tell DODD he has to step down as Chairman of the Banking Committee until he releases all documents relating to his loans from CFC? I think it laughable that Frank rambles on about where the money went, and then gets 12 million for a bank in Mass. that is so undercapitalized that this $12 million will do nothing.

So what kind of odds will I get for a TARP III and TARP IV this year. Also, Sen. Ensign was on CNBC this morning and said the Repubs would like to put a plan in place that would allow every homeowner to re-finance for 4%. Every homeowner would qualify. On avg., he said it would save the homeowner $400/mo.

Not agreeing with Citi, but they didn't just order the jet last week. Both articles failed to mention that point. I believe it was ordered in 2005. Just some context.

http://www.redstate.com/brianfaughnan/2009...-stimulus-plan/ Any thoughts? I really like the first idea pertaining to tax rates.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 22, 2009 -> 09:41 PM) Obama's nominee for Director of National Intelligence refuses to call waterboarding torture. Maybe I will like some of Obama's nomineses after all.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Jan 22, 2009 -> 07:04 PM) Rep. Kirsten Gillenbrand to take Hillary's seat? Noticing a pattern here. Does it have to be a woman who fills the seat for two years?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 22, 2009 -> 09:37 PM) Merrill Lynch dumped about $4 billion in executive bonuses out on an accelerated schedule at the end of December right before the Bank of America merger became final. The $4 billion was dumped out as they were seeking TARP money to replace Merrill's losses. Including those $4 billion, of course. I want to be a bank. MER just layed off 6-8 employees on the CBOE yesterday. I fear more are on the way.