Cknolls

S&P just downgraded 1326 Alt-A residential mortage backed securities. Downgrades affect 33.95 billion in issuance value and affect Alt-A loan pools securitized in the first half of 2007. More telling was the 567 other Alt-A classes put on negative credit watch by the ratings agency. All classes put on watch were rated AAA. The total dollar of potential downgrades to the AAA classes in question would dwarf Wednesday's downgrades, which affected only mezzanine and equity tranches. One particular Alt-A pool, issued in May 2007 originally was $513,969,100 - 92.6% of this cesspool was rated AAA. - 22.89% of the whole pool is in foreclosure or REO status after one year. - 31.17% of the pool is 60 days delinquent or worse. The most troubling thing about these downgrades is that they have only hit the mezzanine and equity tranches, not the senior tranches. Those downgrades are coming and the losses will be staggering. I believe we still have a ways to go before we hear, "Take me out to the ballgame."

From the AP: First it was the film and the book. Now the next stop for Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth" is opera. La Scala officials say the Italian composer Giorgio Battistelli has been commissioned to produce an opera on the international multiformat hit for the 2011 season at the Milan opera house. The composer is currently artistic director of the Arena in Verona. La Scala also announced Thursday that Daniele Gatti will conduct next season's gala premiere of Verdi's "Don Carlo" on Dec. 7.

Wait until 5/1 arms reset in 2009-2010. That along with Heloc's= Worse than subprime. Wamu's balance sheet with regards to these two types of loans is frightening, over $50 billion dollars worth.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ May 28, 2008 -> 09:46 AM) Awkward phrasing is all. "..”On this Memorial Day, as our nation honors its unbroken line of fallen heroes — and I see many of them in the audience here today — our sense of patriotism is particularly strong”…" McCain didn't know Sunni vs. Shi'ite. Cheney claimed to have seen rows of crosses while flying over Arlington. Reagan claimed to have liberated two concentration camps himself. They all make mistakes while speaking publicly. None of the things CK listed really matter in the grand scheme of things. They're just a few miss-statements out of hundreds of hours of public speaking. My point was they are not reported the same way in the media. I couldn't care less what they say. I realize it is a long campaign and it is hard to be on 100% of the time. Just report all stories equally.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ May 27, 2008 -> 02:48 PM) I find is irritating that so much attention has been focused on the occasional verbal gaffes of Obama and McCain. Not only are they silly things to dwell on, but let's put this in perspective here - neither of them are nearly as prone to them as Dubya is. Not even in the same ballpark. And yet, the MSM continues their laughable slide into becoming "A Current Affair", providing us with a deluge of pedantic and idiotic fodder for the pounce-and-denounce crowds to use as artillery. Ridiculous. If these sorts of things are what make you choose McCain or Obama, then I respectfully hope that you get lost on the way to the voting booth. But how many "gaffes" does one person get before you question them? 1.) 57 States 2.) Arabic translators in Afghanistan 3.) Uncle Auschwitz 4.) I see dead people. 5.) "I'm not very well known in Kentucky, Sen. Clinton is much better known coming from a nearby state of Arkansas. I think Illinois is even closer Senator, like border close. 6.) 1965 Selma march inspired his 1961 birth. Would anyone honestly deny that Olbertool would have a field day with this material if MCCain was the speaker?

I think oil could pull back to 123.70/barrel, and possibly as low as 112.85 from the recent 135.09 highs.

Does he lie or just embellish? Over the weekend Obama said his uncle was among the troops that liberated Auschwitz???? Was he in the RED ARMY?

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ May 22, 2008 -> 11:45 AM) Anyone know how the replacement process is in Mass.? Does the governor appoint someone or special elections? Personally, regardless of party, I don't give a rat's ass who HE wants to have the seat. If his term has more than half left, there should be a special election to fill the seat. otherwise, the governor should appoint someone. Dems changed rules in 2004 fearing Romney would appoint an R.

Gliomas are the worst. Chemo will not help and radiation will only inhibit the growth, for a while. My dad was diagnoosed in Dec. 1995 with one and passed on Thanksgiving 2006. Although not a apinful cancer, it was horrible to watch. First, he lost the ability to talk, then eat, then walk, then sight. Eventually slipping into a coma before passing. I cannot see Teddy continuing as a U.S Senator for more than 6 more months before he loses some faculties and would not be able to serve his constituency. With that I wish him and his family the best, my prayers are with you.

GAS futures rose from $2.62 to $2.90 in April, a rise of 11%. Do they think we're morons? Deflation in the things we want. Inflation in the things we need.

So once again, CPI says inflation, WHAT INFLATION? Gas prices FALL 2% in today's CPI report. LMAO!!!

About 25 million bls. should top it off. BTW, according to the WSJ, avg price per barrel in the SPR, a little over $28.

What happens when the Fed uses up their entire balance sheet buying sh**** assets from banks and brokers? We're 1/2 way there. The first half was a failure. If you are going to take risk, MAKE SURE YOU GET PAID.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 13, 2008 -> 07:23 AM) It ended up being more like 70 points by the time the buying was done. Even after a little profit taking the futures are up about 50 over where they were before the number came out. S&P futes, not Dow futes.

So retail sales rally the futures mkt. 9 points. Pathetic. But you have to respect the mkt. It seems like "they" want to take the mkt higher. But the retail sales number was fueled by credit growth in installment debt.It accelerated from $5 billion week over week, to $13 billion recently. Very unsustainable.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Apr 29, 2008 -> 10:00 AM) You have to be driving on New Ave. to smell it, but man does it stink. Sorta like rotten eggs. I'm sure Lemont gets TONS of tax money from those two plants as well. I don't know that I'd necessarily oppose it myself, I was just saying that I understand where the NIMBY mentality comes from when it comes to places like these. I know some of the refinery cities in Texas (Port Arthur, in particular) are very seriously polluted. On a side note, I've always found it odd that the Citgo station directly across the street from the refinery usually has some of the higher prices in the area. You'd think they'd be able to sell a little cheaper due to zero transportation costs. Exactly what I thought. when I first moved there, that station was usually cheaper than anywhere else in town. But now, you are right, it is usually more expensive. Consequently, there are two other gas stations in Lemont, both Citgo's. The two BP stations, one on Archer and one on State St. both closed in the last two years.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Apr 29, 2008 -> 10:27 AM) well, I understand the NIMBY factor. Just drive down New Avenue in Lockport/ Lemont, IL. The Texaco refinery that closed in 1982 and takes up a few hundred acres along the Des Plaines river was just finally cleaned up in the last few years. And the land is still only usable for industrial purposes. A little further down the road is the ComEd coal-fired power plant and a Citgo refinery. My parents often have an oily film on their pool (they're a little down-wind). There are risks of explosion (I think the Texaco refinery had a major explosion, and the Citgo refinery had a minor explosion a few years ago.) They usually smell awful at night. I've lived in Lemont for six years now and have never experienced any foul odors. Maybe its where I liv Also, you would be surprised at how much Citgo does for Lemont, i.e. they just donated $500,000 for a new township office, and they just co-sponsored a motor-oil recycling event a week and a half ago.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 28, 2008 -> 10:51 PM) Even at those prices, it would take a couple years to begin ramping up production of those enough to meet the demand spike/production decline associated with a price spike of this magnitude. It takes an awful lot of energy and work and equipment and time to turn those in to usable gasoline. Kind of like Ethanol, huh.

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 09:29 PM) I'm probably way too liberal. Move to Illinois, we'll elect you in a heartbeat.

I still believe there is more to this story, i.e., JPM's counter-party risk to BSC, but we will never know. The notion that JPM was the only one who would buy BSC is assinine; at that price , I believe there would be a few suitors lining up at the door.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Apr 20, 2008 -> 09:33 PM) When some says "you can make an argument" then rattles off a list of things to support it, they are making the argument that you believe that. Why would you rattle off facts that support something you dont think is the case? And facts that are WRONG! Inflation and Job Creation be two. On your second point, can you prove it was "obviously" a different point? I can prove it was in context. I am willing to concied that there is a POSSIBILITY we were better in 2004 or 2005 than we were in 2000. however, in 2008, we are worse than we were in 2000 on a total economic level due to lax economic polices and an ongoing war that has tripled the price of gas.. THerefore, we are not "better off overall if you look at the entire eight-year period" Tripled the price of gas?

Agreed.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Apr 2, 2008 -> 02:41 PM) Mike Huckabee is my guess if Obama is the pick for the Dems. They need a real southern conservative righty to balance out the ticket. I would prefer Mark Sanford of South Carolina.

It's fairly apparent over the last week that the stock market can't see the forest for the trees. IF everything is so wonderful..why did HSBC have to be 8 1/8% for $2 billion in preferreds. The credit market STILL senses the issues, while the stock market doesn't see it. FOR NOW..

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Mar 31, 2008 -> 06:06 PM) I heard a story from a guy at my church who has served in Iraq twice that money is thrown at a problem.. it is done poorly and fails... so they throw more money at it to fix the problem that they caused by poor work. For a mninute there I thought you were talking about the education system in America.