WCSox

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 20, 2010 -> 08:37 AM) Ok, now you are just looking to argue. Right....the best hitter in franchise history and one of the probably best 10 hitters or so of all time didn't carry a big part of the load. Ok. So your argument has morphed from Frank "carrying us" to "carrying a big part of the load." Perhaps you simply misspoke the first time? You don't need to luck out and draft one of the "best 10 hitters or so of all time" to go from bad to multi-year contender. I shouldn't have to point that out, but apparently you're THAT desperate to defend a bad argument.

QUOTE (docsox24 @ May 20, 2010 -> 08:22 AM) i really dont think jones is going to get you anything in a trade. i dont see much interest in him. He's not going to command a top-tier prospect. But if he stays healthy and reasonably productive, the Sox will get something halfway decent for him. He's owed next to nothing through the remainder of the year and his pre-injury track record is pretty impressive.

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 20, 2010 -> 07:53 AM) Well, I was referring to the fact that Thomas was a once-in-a-generation type player. He carried us through the 90's. Do you really want to depend on finding another Frank Thomas in the next few drafts? Actually, it was the pitching that carried the successful '90s Sox teams. Once that began to thin out (ca. 1995), the Sox stopped winning. Claiming that Frank was the main reason for the Sox's success in the '90s and implying that it would've been impossible without his "once-in-a-generation" talent is incorrect. Albert Belle had the best offensive season in Sox history and he didn't help the '98 team win anything. I think that the Sox are a safe bet to draft another Robin Ventura, Jack McDowell, and Alex Fernandez at some point in our lifetimes. I'm also pretty sure that they'd be able to find Latin American free agent players comparable to Maggs and Carlos Lee at some point during our lives.

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 20, 2010 -> 06:16 AM) Quentin and Beckham. Two highly, highly rated prospects who have been going through their fair share of growing pains. For all of those who are advocating trading away the core for prospects, Q and Gordo are two prime examples of why rebuilding can be incredibly frustrating and frightening. I don't know why you're comparing Quentin to Beckham. Q is 27 and played significant time in the bigs years before Kenny acquired him. Dude's in the prime of his career and should be producing NOW. Beckham is 23 and doesn't even have a full season's worth of at-bats under his belt. Having lived through the late '80s, I acutely aware of how painful rebuilding can be. That said, I'd rather go through that again than than a string of 80-82 seasons where you're not competitive AND you don't get any high draft picks. QUOTE (iamshack @ May 20, 2010 -> 06:03 AM) What every team seeks to do is establish a strong core from which to build around for a sustained period of time. I like our core. I guess that is where we disagree. I like our starting pitching... a lot. But offensively, I think that Rios and Beckham are the only players who will regularly hit in the 110+ OPS range. This team needs more balance. However, I do agree that, whatever happens in the next couple of years, Peavy, Danks, Rios, and Beckham should all be retained. If Kenny does hold a firesale, I'd much rather see older players near the end of their contracts (PK, AJ, MB, etc.) being moved.

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 19, 2010 -> 03:46 PM) Let me let you in on a little secret which I keep repeating but you continue to miss: I don't know who pissed in your Cheerios this morning, but the condescending tone that you're displaying today isn't making your arguments any stronger. Think of how bad this lineup is going to be next year with Viciedo, Flowers, and God-knows-who replacing PK, AJ, and Jones. I'm sure that there would be enough cash on hand to make one significant free agent move and maybe a couple more minor ones. But with JR already poised to slash payroll, expecting more than that is a stretch at best. Using your model, the Sox will be relying HEAVILY on Quentin, Alexei, and Beckham to carry the offense next year. That hasn't worked very well this year, has it? Hell, the former two weren't able to step up and do anything last year, either. No, but this is... Thanks for that hard-hitting analysis. I guess I'll go out and purchase a Yankees hat now. Since you missed it, I'll say it again: How about the rebuilding that this same organization did in the mid/late 1980s? Veterans (some still productive, some not) like Baines, Kittle, Seaver, and Calderon were dealt/let go and the draft picks that resulted from a few bad years netted several studs (Frank, Robin, Blackjack, Fernandez) that set the stage for a really nice run in the early/mid '90s. In 2008, the Sox still had a productive Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye to anchor the middle of the lineup. Quentin had a career year and Alexei played well enough to come in second in the ROTY voting. They also had a lot more payroll flexibility than they'll have next year. In 2005, the Sox had a horrible team OBP, which wasn't helped out much by the free agent acquisitions of JD and Iguchi (I believe that Pods and PK were the only players with OBPs above .350). The '05 Sox got ridiculously lucky with career years (or near-career years) in the starting rotation (particularly Garland and Contreras), were helped by Crede going on a tear down the stretch, three of their mediocre bullpen arms had career years, and a rookie closer was able to step up when Hermanson's back went out. I can't take anything away from the '05 Sox but, on paper, they weren't all that. Talent-wise, the '08 team was a lot better. Who is going to anchor the middle of the lineup next year? Quentin? Alexei? Beckham? Are you comfortable with that? How about Pierre or Teahen? Or are you confident that Kenny will go out and sign two Johnny Damon-caliber players and Adrian Gonzalez? Over the next couple of years, I like Rios and Beckham. I'm not confident in anybody else. The retooling of the past worked because the Sox had a lineup of proven veteran talent to build around. It doesn't work when you build around inconsistent, injury-prone, and inexperienced young players. The Sox can't fill four or five positions with average or above-average talent via free agency with a $40M staring rotation and a payroll cut on the horizon. Since the Sox have little in-house talent ready to step up, I don't see how continued FA spending is going to work - especially after it's failed miserably over three of the past four seasons. The Sox need more young, cheap, ML-ready position players. There's no way around that.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 19, 2010 -> 01:31 PM) One thing worth pointing out...the "$100 million" level really doesn't mean as much as it did a couple years ago, especially with the fact that the Sox always have someone else kicking in to pay part of the bill for a player or two. According to Kalapse's chart, their current roster including these cash considerations is just under $100M. My point was that JR is already on record stating that the Sox will be pulling back financially if attendance drops (which is tied directly to winning).

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 19, 2010 -> 12:39 PM) Ok, well I guess you weren't paying attention to the overhaul that has occurred over the course of the last 2-3 years, with THREE big pieces being added last year. Give them a chance to compete for more that 40 games together, shall we? KW recognized the need for some roster turnover, because 07' was awful, and 09' was underwhelming. Thus the recent additions. Now can we just give them some time before we blow the entire roster up? As I said before, you can't fill all of those holes with Peavy, Rios, and whatever third player you're speaking of (Beckham)? Mind you, I'm not advocating moving those players, but rather building around them. Nice straw man argument. I can play too: What examples of successful, sustainable, fourth-place $100M rosters can you give who don't regularly draw 35,000+ per game? Selling/letting go of veterans, enduring a couple of bad seasons, and rebuilding from scratch has worked well for numerous teams (the late '80s and late '90s Sox, for example). It doesn't guarantee anything, but its track record is much better than Kenny perpetually trying to "retool on the fly" without the Yankees-like coffers to make it work.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 19, 2010 -> 12:08 PM) KW f'ed up, let's just admit it, going into both 09 an 2010. Let's be honest. Let's not blame KW's decisions on Ozzie either, as if that somehow exonerates him. I still think he's a #8-12 GM, and I'd MUCH rather keep him than Ozzie going forward....but he's made some very bad decisions with the likes of MacDougal, Teahen, Pierre and Linebrink (although we don't get to playoffs in 08 without him, is that worth paying him for 09-10-11, you tell me). I'm not sure I'd paint with that broad a brush. Certainly, giving Teahen an extension and rounding out the roster with Jones/Vizquel were dubious decisions. Not providing Ozzie with better leadoff options than Wise and Anderson last year were bad decisions as well. And, of course, most would argue that Linebrink's contract was a complete disaster. That said, I can't remember the last Kenny Williams Sox team that I felt didn't have a chance. Even this year's team should be pitching well enough to be over .500, and well within striking distance of MIN. On paper, going into the season, I've been pretty satisfied with Kenny's 2006-2009 squads. Ultimately, I put it on the players for not producing and Ozzie for not motivating them to produce. Ultimately, I see it this way: Kenny invested a ton of money in relatively pricey veteran players from 2006 through last year. Many of them were wildly-inconsistent and, ultimately, they couldn't do better than a 90-win season in a tough division and a division title two years later. What we've been seeing since last summer is the consequence of spending a ton of money on veterans on the wrong side of 30, and not having a farm system to fill the holes that their departures create.

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 19, 2010 -> 11:39 AM) I'm also talking about a core that includes Beckham, Rios, and Peavy. They've been together for roughly 70 games... That's far from an "outstanding core." It's a nice start, but I still don't see how the Sox have enough in-house position-player talent to compete over the next few years.

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 19, 2010 -> 11:30 AM) I couldn't disagree more. If they would just draft as they should, as the Tigers do, their method is completely sustainable. What's killing us is Jerry's insistence on following his pal Bud Selig's silly slot system. You can't spend on free agents like the Yankees or Red Sox without their cashflow. Unlike these teams, the Sox don't have the luxury of operating with their foot on the pedal every single year. Your comparison with the Tigers is silly. They're still living off of high draft picks from a string of last-place finishes in the early/mid portion of this decade, they've spent stupidly in FA in recent years, and they still haven't won anything yet. Unless you're suggesting that the Sox play like the Tigers did from 2001-2005, drafting alone isn't going to do it. QUOTE (iamshack @ May 19, 2010 -> 11:31 AM) Uhh...ok. If you want to make the playoffs every year, you should become a Yankees fan, because there is no other manner in which to sustain that kind of success other than $$$$$$$ I've been following the Sox longer than you've been alive, so I don't know where you get off telling me that I should follow a different team because I have a problem with spending $100M/year to finish in third or fourth place.

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 19, 2010 -> 11:23 AM) Ok, so let me ask you this. Does one underwhelming season justify destroying a potentially outstanding core for the sake of rebuilding? You're kidding, right? Try *three* underwhelming seasons since 2007.

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 19, 2010 -> 10:53 AM) I'm certainly not saying a good farm system is a negative thing, absolutely not. A good farm system is a necessary thing at this point because (1) the Sox lack young hitting talent and (2) don't have the money to acquire a significant number of veterans this winter via free agency. I'll go a step beyond that and say that all teams need decent farm systems to be competitive over the long run. The method that we currently have been employing is completely unsustainable. We can't continue to rely on dealing good-to-mediocre prospects for big-contract veterans. This is especially the case when these veterans don't translate into a winning team. Sox fans are notorious for staying at home when a bad/mediocre product is on the field. Therefore, a $100M roster that wins 70-80 games isn't going to cut it. That may work with the Cubs, but not with this franchise. The bottom line is that it's been a nice run, but that run is coming to an end. They either compete this year, or the dismantling will begin. Beginning this winter, there won't be enough productive veterans to hide these holes, there aren't enough young players ready to step up yet to fill them, and there isn't enough disposable cash on hand to fill them with more veterans. It's likely going to be 1999 again soon.

The Sox have the starting rotation to win, but that's about it. Jenks is no longer dependable, and he'll be gone next year. Thornton will most likely leave as a FA in 2012. Putz isn't dependable and will be gone next year as well. Santos is the only long-term arm that I'm excited about. Going into next year, we'll have mediocre offensive talent at every position besides CF, 2B, SS, and RF. Even Pierre's "meh" bat will be gone in 2012. Signing PK to an extension would help at 1B/DH, but the number of holes needed to fill is daunting. And we currently don't have the disposable income or minor league talent to do it quickly. In other words, the days of "retooling on the fly" are coming to an end.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ May 19, 2010 -> 10:04 AM) I've noticed that people are always willing to make changes, but it's always *insert random time in the future*, not right now. And then when that random time comes, for a lot of people it is suddenly wait until *insert new random time in the future*. Hell, I agree with shack that Kenny should wait a while before committing to a firesale (I'd say at least another 30 days). But it's silly to chide people who, after a full month and a half of bad baseball, see absolutely zero evidence that this team will play competitively and understand the realities of our farm system, FA status of key players, and future payroll constrictions.

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 19, 2010 -> 08:39 AM) For those of you demanding big-scale changes, let me ask you this: Are you guys identifying actual benefits to making these changes? I just don't see the point of dismantling a team with a relatively young, solid core for unproven, far away prospects. Or firing a manager that most of the town loves, the press loves, the owner loves, has a solid career winning percentage, etc. Are these just changes to satisfy your impatience? To make a change for change's sake? I'm not ready to make massive, wholesale changes after less than 40 games with this team playing together. Maybe you guys are, because you're accustomed to your video games or whatever. But remember, you start trading everyone away, you can't get these guys back. You can't erase your memory card and start the season over. I'm of the opinion that when these guys start playing like they damn-well should, we may be a small piece or two away from winning something rather than a piece or two away from blowing the whole damn thing up. What if they're still playing like this after 60 games? Or let me put it another way: What evidence to you have that this team won't still be playing like this after 60 games? Was 79 wins last year an example of this team playing "like they damn-well should"? Even an impatient, clueless, video game-playing teenager can correctly recognize that Ozzie's lost his team and that Kenny's "retool on the fly" strategy is unsustainable and has run its course. It's time for this team to put up or shut up. If they don't start playing soon, we're looking at "The Kids Can Play 2" next year. As Balta correctly pointed out, the roster turnover alone will force a major overhaul. Even if Kenny gives PK an extension (which I think he should) and spends a little in FA in the off-season, JR has already made it clear that they're going to pull back on payroll next year. You're missing the point. There aren't ML-ready players in-house to step up and replace these guys. Flowers, D2, and Viciedo aren't ready, and all will go through growing pains when they are. Beckham is in a massive sophomore slump and, while I expect that he'll eventually hit like Robin Ventura, he may not become that player for a couple more years. So, at best, you're looking at more of the same next year. With ownership constricting payroll, FA spending won't be enough to cover the FA losses. While the Sox have done a phenomenal job of developing young pitching, their inability to develop young hitters is killing them. Quentin and Alexei have regressed over the past 2+ years. Viciedo, D2, and the others are all still at least a year away. When your post-30 veterans are ready to hit free agency and your young hitters either aren't producing in the bigs or are at least a year away in the minors, and you can't spend your way to the playoffs via free agency, there's no getting around it: You need to take a step back and rebuild.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ May 18, 2010 -> 07:11 PM) IMO, Guillen's arrogance has been his downfall recently. He believes he knows more than everyone else. He constantly goes against the numbers and he constantly goes against common sense. Guillen shouldn't be fired because of our record, he should be fired because of his decision making. Like chw42 says above, he puts his players in a position to fail. It's really that simple. Agreed to an extent (e.g., batting Wise leadoff), but the broader problem is that he's lost the team. They began going through the motions and playing for a paycheck last August. It doesn't really matter if Ozzie stupidly plays Vizquel at DH while sticking Teahen at 3B, when the rest of the lineup is trying to pull the ball over the fence when they should be trying to move the runner along instead.

QUOTE (greg775 @ May 18, 2010 -> 03:48 PM) In 100 years I think plenty of managers had teams that on paper could have won it all. And didn't. Buck Showalter is a good example of this. After the D-Backs fired him, Bob Brenly won a WS with essentially the same talent. Torre also did a much better job with the '96 Yankees than Showalter did the previous year (with Tino and Jeter replacing Mattingly and Fernandez). There's a reason why guys like Showalter, Dusty Baker, and Phil Garner have never won a WS.

QUOTE (chw42 @ May 18, 2010 -> 12:30 PM) Give just about any other decent manager that team again with all those guys who had career years and the best pitching staff in all of the AL with a great defense and they'll do just as well as Ozzie did. Ozzie was simply in the right situation. He does deserve credit for that World Series, don't get me wrong. But with the players he had and the luck he ran into with so many career years, it's hard to give him credit as being a good manager. A large part (and some would say the most important part) of a manager's job is motivation. Ozzie is a high-energy guy who got his players to buy into his system and play their asses off for him for a few years. He lost them last year, but what he did worked for a good part of four seasons. QUOTE (Soxbadger @ May 18, 2010 -> 12:31 PM) Im not specifically talking about what youve said. Im talking about the people who want change, but only are limiting it to Walker. I think if change is what the Sox need, they need to make real changes. I'd give Coop a raise and beg him to stay, but the manager who can't motivate his players or fill out a lineup card, and the hitting coach whose teams have failed to hit effectively in 2 of the past 3 seasons, aren't bringing much to the table.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ May 17, 2010 -> 06:43 PM) It's just that you said something about firing them if they are playing the same a year from now. I took that as meaning you wouldn't even fire them during the offseason, but rather start the 2011 season with them. Well, it's really not up to me. I'm not Kenny Williams. And my feeling is that Kenny (who has never had a true "rebuilding" season in his 10 years as GM) probably isn't going to throw in the towel less than a year after acquiring Peavy and Rios, with a full year still on Mark's contract, and with guys like Danks still affordable. Even if the Sox lose the 96 games that they're on pace to, it's very possible that he goes for it one last time. And if that's the case, it's most likely that he stays with Ozzie & Co. for one last year for the sake of continuity. Players and coaches take time to adjust to one another, and a major shake-up would be disruptive. Either way, Kenny isn't going to fire an entire coaching staff during the season. It's possible that Ozzie's mouth forces him out and that Joey Cora takes over for a few months, but you can't realistically throw together an entire coaching staff in the middle of a season. That would be an absolute mess, and I didn't mean to imply that the coaching staff would go at the trade deadline, along with the players.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ May 17, 2010 -> 05:57 PM) I don't know who's readily available. I'm just saying it's pretty outrageous to think that we should give the coaching staff until this time next year before canning them. I see little sense in naming Joey Cora or some scrub from the minor-league system manager, and then replacing him and his entire staff this winter. Kenny's not going to find the manager that he wants and assemble an entire new coaching staff in the middle of the season.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ May 17, 2010 -> 06:05 PM) Plus, what the hell else are you going to get for AJ? To save the remainder of his salary this year and avoid problems with the 10/5 issue, I'd give him to anyone who would have him. Pretty much. Unless the Sox go on a tear or there's some evidence that AJ will net us high draft picks, there isn't a much of a reason to keep him on the roster for the remainder of the year.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ May 17, 2010 -> 11:59 AM) The point of it is to get return for the players you're going to let walk at the end of the season anyway. With sagging gate/concessions/parking revenue, dumping salary falls into that "return" category.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 17, 2010 -> 11:52 AM) We only get compensation if we offer arbit and he turns it down. AJ won't turn it down, because there isn't going to be a big free agent market for him. Wouldn't arbitration also give AJ a pay raise? He's making $6.75M this year, and it's kind of difficult seeing the Sox paying him $8M next year (especially if this year forces them into outright rebuilding).

QUOTE (Jenks Heat @ May 17, 2010 -> 10:22 AM) Not if he declines arbitration and leaves via free agency and nets the Sox a pick or two. He hit over .300 last year. He hit exactly .300 last year, and 2003 was the last time that he had done so. He's currently hitting .200 this year and posting an OPS+ of 47. I don't know what types of picks the Sox will get from letting AJ walk, but I can't imagine that they'll get high-tier prospects with those picks. The organization may be more interested in saving the money, as (in per what JR said a couple of months ago), they'll be pulling back financially next year if the team doesn't win this year.

QUOTE (Real @ May 17, 2010 -> 07:38 AM) AJ isn't making that much money that you even consider dumping him, given all of the things he brings to the table. He's not even tendered past this year! Not to mention you aren't going to get ANYTHING worth a damn that will offset what you're losing if you trade him. You think teams are going to give up a top prospect for AJ? I mean, really? If the Sox trade AJ before his 5-and-10 rights kick in, they'll recoup at least $4M. Even if they don't get much in return, saving that money makes a lot of sense from a business perspective. Especially when gate revenue is declining. I'm not necessarily advocating that the Sox do this (because I don't think that they're completely out of it... yet), but the "AJ isn't making that much money" line is a bad argument. If Kenny does later decide that the season is lost, paying AJ $6.75M is a horrible business decision.