WCSox

QUOTE(qwerty @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 01:45 PM) I am not cherry picking anything ( you really like that word btw). 73%? Thought you knew what i was talking about and did not have to make it known. 73% is still not good enough to help your team consistently. Oh, really? Podsednik's was only 72% this year. Don't tell me he didn't help the Sox win consistently.

QUOTE(Felix @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 01:42 PM) So by that logic, minor league players should never be given a shot in the majors, since it would all be speculation on how they do. Wow, another weak counter-argument. You're just full of them today, aren't you? I'm simply saying that a team that's just won a WS and is in position to win another would be better off going with proven talent, rather than a question mark. It may not be wise to give up a starting pitcher for said proven talent, but a less-costly trade for said player is something that the GM should at least consider.

QUOTE(Felix @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 01:38 PM) Just for fun, here are some 2006 ZiPS projections: Brian Anderson: .263/.323/.425 21 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 6 SB, 3 CS (67%) Juan Pierre: .293/.346/.364 22 2B, 10 3B, 2 HR, 52 SB, 22 CS (70%) Willy Taveras: .293/.334/.342 12 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 37 SB, 20 CS (64%) If they all put up similar numbers to those, not only will Anderson be better than Taveras and Pierre 2006, but he will be better than them in 2005 as well.. But we don't even know that Anderson can play at the major league level yet. So, it's all speculation.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 01:30 PM) Jesus christ. 65% stealing bases in no way, shape, or form ends up helping your team in the long run. Pierre's CAREER stole-base percentage is 73%. Way to cherry-pick one years' stats to support your bad argument. :rolly BTW, Pods' stolen-base percentage this season was 72%. Don't tell me he was a rally-killer. That's right. You have no concrete evidence. I'm sorry it's the best you can do because it's a laughably weak argument.

QUOTE(SSH2005 @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 01:26 PM) Since when is AVG the only good measure of a player's offense? OPS is a much better stat to measure a player's offensive capabilities. And I'd bet my left nut that Anderson puts up a higher OPS than Taveras's .666 OPS from last season. Since when has CF been a power position? And since when have players who average over 50 stolen bases/season and hit in the leadoff spot (not to mention th e higher OBP) been held to the same standards as those who hit 6th or 7th in the lineup and aren't particularly good at the plate OR on the bases?

QUOTE(JimH @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 01:07 PM) According to you qwerty it's common sense, maybe he looks at common sense a little differently. Common sense is not strictly limited to your interpretaton of it. I like his style, he has some good points. Thanks. It's nice to know that not everybody here is blinded by homerism and prejudice against certain players.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 01:00 PM) Rowand truely is more valuable to a team than pierre. Sorry. Rowand certainly has the advantage with power and slugging percentage, but that doesn't matter because Pierre's a leadoff hitter. Pierre's career OBP is 20 points higher and he's averaged close to 55 stolen bases/season over the past 5 years. Pods very clearly showed us how much of an impact a proficient base-stealer can have on a team. And the difference in defense is less than you think it is. We'll have to agree to disagree on this one, but I'm sticking with Pierre. This is nothing but speculation and prejudice on your part. You have absolutely no concrete evidence to back it up, yet continue argue the point for some unknown reason. It's a laughably weak argument, especially for someone who claims to have such faith in statistical analysis. QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 01:04 PM) What makes you think that Anderson can't improve on his 2005 season in 2006 to a level like Taveras in 2005? Look at the jump Willy made. What makes you think that Anderson will be able to hit anywhere near Taveras' .291? At least Taveras has done it before over the course of a full season. Anderson hasn't done anything in the majors For all we know, he could be Joe Borchard, Part II. Anderson's still a giant question mark. Call me crazy, but I'd rather play the guy who's actually done it at the major league level before... especially when I'm making another run at the WS.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 12:51 PM) Rowand's ops+ 93. Pierre's ops+ 84. There was no ''offensive boost'' to be had. Way to cherry-pick stats. Apparently you've never heard of stolen bases. How badly did the Sox slip in August when Pods was injured? How much better were they offensively when he was healthy? Pierre's career OBP is also significantly higher than Roand's. The homerism here is absolutely ridiculous at times... "Aaron Rowand is a better player than Juan Pierre!" "Willie Taveras will certainy experience a sophomore slump because... er... because I said so!" "Even if Brian Anderson is a bust, he'll still be better than Taveras was this past season!" :rolly

QUOTE(SSH2005 @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 12:42 PM) But qwerty just posted a stat that shows it doesn't. Win-share stats don't mean everything. They're dependent upon too many other variables. Given the significantly greater interest in Pierre than Rowand this offseason, it appears that most GMs don't take them to seriously either. Rowand was a freaking rally-killer at the plate and on the bases at time this year. I'll take the small sacrifice in defense for the extra offensive boost that Pierre would provide.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 12:36 PM) Rowand's defense wins you more games than pierre does period. I disagree. Pierre's base-stealing prowess and higher OBP win more games.

QUOTE(Cerbaho-WG @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 12:34 PM) So you consider long, loopy throws missing cutoff men a cannon? Sammy's throws have so much arc that they travel farther, which isn't indicative of a cannon, rather he just has poor arm strength and throws the ball higher to get more distance. I haven't watched much of Sammy since he went to the O's last year, but he had a freaking cannon back in his prime. If you don't know that, you haven't been paying attention.

QUOTE(Cerbaho-WG @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 12:25 PM) Sammy does not by any stretch of the imagination have a cannon for an arm. QUOTE(qwerty @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 12:28 PM) Sosa has always had a very strong arm Talk about "huffing gas."

QUOTE(SSH2005 @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 12:03 PM) First, you said that Pierre's arm was "average." Now, you are inferring that he actually has a "really weak arm." Which is it? You seem to be backtracking. I'm not backtracking at all. He has an average arm that is statistically skewed by the fact that he plays in an enormous outfield. I can't imagine how many sac flies (rather than HRs) are hit into deep left-center in that ballpark. And Pierre takes the heat (statistically) for letting a runner advance on a 400-ft fly ball. QUOTE(qwerty @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 12:03 PM) You are seriously suggesting that pierre and damon are good fielders, i am not talking arms ( even though throwing abilty is a big part)? Alrighty then. I can already see the type of players you are a fan of. Outside of their arms, Pierre and Damon are both solid defensive CFs. It's difficult to imagine that a guy as small as pierre would have a cannon for an arm anyway. Arm strength isn't everything. Look at Sammy. He has a freaking rifle for an arm, but did it make him a good defensive player? No, he'd throw the ball into the freaking 3rd-base stands while trying to gun down a runner. I'll say it again: I'll take Pierre in a heartbeat over a better defensive player like Rowand.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 11:55 AM) Haha... he he has one of the worst arms in all of baseball. So many defensive statistics show how bad he truely is ( i am not saying just range factor and the basics). But you can go ahead believing what you like. Since he has be in the majors more runners have advanced on his than any other outfielder int he majors. He also plays in one of the largest outfields in the majors (.434 to left-center). But you can go ahead and ignore that important piece of information. Even CFs with really weak arms (Damon) can still play the position effectively.

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 11:52 AM) I don't think anyone's automatically assuming. Actually, one person here is. Read back through this thread. I'm not assuming that he'll be substantially better in '06. That might not happen until '07 or '08. Interestingly, at least one other person here is convinced that he'll fall into some sort of "sophomore slump." Show me where I advocated Taveras-for-Contreras straight up. :rolly

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 11:46 AM) WCSox, judging Anderson by so few at bats is silly. Not nearly as silly as automatically assuming that he'll be a better player in '06 than Taveras was this year.

QUOTE(Felix @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 11:39 AM) Thats like saying you are a better defensive catcher than Piazza.. Not having a cannon for an arm doesn't make one a "bad CF." Pierre has more than enough range to play the position competently. He also has the OBP and speed on the bases to make him a valuable player. I'd take Pierre in a second over Rowand.

QUOTE(southsideirish @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 11:27 AM) His horrible arm and not so great range make him a bad CF'er. His arm is average for a CF. His range is average-to-above-average.

QUOTE(Rex Kickass @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 11:10 AM) John Murtha is against abortion and gun control. He supports the death penalty. Voted for Bush's Energy policy, given about a 50% rating by both the ACLU and the Christian Coalition. That would make him, by definition, a moderate. He was a moderate before his idiotic "cut-and-run" speech. Now he looks a lot more like a tool of the left.

QUOTE(Felix @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 11:01 AM) Juan Pierre isn't a valuable CF. He's a bad CF. Those two sentences show that you're completely clueless.

QUOTE(Felix @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 10:55 AM) Last year, in 34 ABs, Anderson had 2 HR (both hit in Safeco). Last year, in 592 ABs, Taveras had 3. Last year, in 34 ABs, Anderson had 3 XBH. Last year, in 592 ABs, Taveras had 20. If Anderson had 592, and stayed on that pace, which you seem to think since you keep mentioning his AVG and OBP, he'd have 52 XBH. Power doesn't mean anything when your BA or OBP are below .200. Juan Pierre doesnt hit for power, and he's a very valuable CF. Again, Taveras has already proven that he's good enough to play CF at the major league level. Anderson hasn't proven anything yet. If I'm going for another WS ring, I take the guy who's done it before.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 10:39 AM) Based on the fact he seems like a perfect player to regress. I said the same thing about gerut before last season and ford. I have also the same thing about francoeur... i am positive he will have a sharp regression. In other words, it's just speculation on your part. Tell me, what criteria do you use to determine that a player "seems" like he's going to regress? No. Taveras has proven that he can play at the major league level. Anderson, through no fault of his own, has not. And what little we've seen of Anderson doesn't exactly suggest that he's the second coming of Griffey. Doh! I think what I was trying to say is that the time to trade Contreras would be now, but there's no reason to deal him now when there are no gaping holes elsewhere on the team. The best course of action would be to wait until June or July. Sorry about that.

QUOTE(Felix @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 10:37 AM) What has Taveras done in the majors? He had 20 extra base hits last year, while playing in one of the best hitting parks. Again, look at Taveras' numbers outside of Minute Maid Park. He couldn't do anything at all. Outside of Minute Maid Park, he's done a hell of a lot more than Anderson. Look up Anderson's numbers. Do you think that his .176 BA/OBP are impressive or something? That's quite possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Overall, Taveras did relatively well given that it was his first full season. If I had a choice between him and Anderson, I'd take Taveras in a heartbeat.

QUOTE(FlaSoxxJim @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 10:26 AM) Apparently thinking you're better than others is something to be exclusively enjoyed by you. Funny, I wasn't the one who inferred that someone else had to work 60-70 hours per week because he stuggles to make ends meet. I also didn't brag about my volunteer work and infer that said person doesn't do any because he's greedy. Character assassination: One of many reasons that liberals don't win elections anymore. If you'll excuse me, I'm going to drill for oil in a wildlife refuge, dump it in the ocean, and then cheat on my taxes. Have a nice day.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Dec 31, 2005 -> 10:11 AM) I would also beg to differ that taveras goes in a sophmore slump this upcoming season rather than improve. Based on what? Your own bias against him? :rolly At the very least, he's a better option than Anderson at this point, who has done absolutely nothing in the majors and could be the CF incarnation of Mike Caruso for all we know. Of course, there's no way that Taveras (or Pierre) alone is worth Contreras in a trade. Nobody will try to argue that. But if Contreras reverts back to his mediocre Yankees numbers and Anderson turns out to be a flop, I would seriously consider a trade for Taveras and Qualls. Whatever happens, it's important for KW to wait until June or July before making another move. Trading Contreras right now would be stupid, as his value is as high as it'll ever be.