iamshack
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Posts posted by iamshack
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4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
Well argued. In the end, though...the “brilliance/armed robbery” of Rizzo has shifted from the most-loved to most concerning of the three moves (a lot depends on Dunning’s health moving forward), the concerns about Moncada and Kopech fulfilling their promise, etc. The Quintana trade looks brilliant for the moment, unless Cease blows out his elbow again. That said, even Kimenez for Q looks like a huge steal. So we should all give him credit for being patient and maximizing his return despite one of Q’s shakiest seasons. And making the right determination to deal Kahnle at peak value, that was smart and a lot of us questioned it as well as Rutherford’s potential.
Balta rightfully says he gets at least another year, if not until mid-season 2020. That’s more than fair, and he also can’t control the slate of injuries to our Top 30 prospects, either.
Nevertheless, GM’s are always going to be judged by the W-L record on the backs of their theoretical baseball cards, not what ifs, theoreticals or what SHOULD have happened.
Wait, what? You just let this FO make the most important decisions for this franchise in probably 20 years. And you are going to fire them before you see whether this pans out or not?
What did people expect when we chose this path? What has gone so drastically off track since then? What major offense has been committed SINCE we let this FO trade Chris Sale?
People need to have patience. This was never going to be a win in 2018 thing. 2019 was always best case, and while that isn’t looking great at the moment, a LOT will change between today, and next 8-12 months. We will add a potential ace. We will add a potential all-star caliber hitter. We will potentially spend hundreds of millions of dollars in free agency. We will have a top 3 draft pick. The years the Cubs and Astros first competed came out of absolute nowhere.
Let’s all keep our eyes on the things that truly matter here.
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9 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:
I normally would agree, but he does have a point. RH would have been fired by just about every other team given his team’s performance since he became a GM. Maybe not 4 times, but at least once. Considering he was part of the decision making process previous to that, it isn’t like he was put in a position of cleaning up someone else’s mess, or had no idea just how bad the mess was.
That said, these prospects are anywhere near as good as they claim, he will totally redeem himself
The entire premise is simply ridiculous.
First of all, it presumes all kinds of things in regards to what has happened over the last 6-7 years, which is speculative, in most cases likely flat-out wrong, ignores Hahn’s history with the organization, and because of that, is a very weak foundation upon which to base the entire argument.
Secondly, how are we going to judge the guy in a role he didn’t have? Balta wants to suggest Hahn would have been fired by every other team for this performance, and yet, Hahn wasn’t working for the 29 other teams. He was working for the White Sox, whom he has worked for since November of 2000. Since then, he’s been entrusted with a number of high-profile negotiations, including Mark Buehrle and Paul Konerko several times each, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu, etc. While it is true that Rick has been GM since November of 2012, and we can only speculate in regards to the decision making process our FO utilizes, I think it’s a fair guess to suggest JR, KW and RH collaborate with a lot of direction coming from JR. Given the relative strength of the Central division, the starting rotation the FO was able to assemble, the state of the Cubs at the time, and some of the transactions Hahn and Co were able to make, I think a fairly strong defense can be levied for continuing to make a run at being competitive between 2013-2016. It is very easy to criticize now in hindsight, particularly with the success of the Astros’ and Cubs’ rebuilds, but in those years it was still very unclear as to whether those tear downs were going to be successful.
I remember quite a bit of mocking of the Cubs and Astros around these parts as we cheered on our own failed attempts to supplement our roster through trades and FA signings (remember the excitement around here as the White Sox were hailed as being FA “winners” in 2014?). Again, hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Thirdly, Balta assumes that the fact that some GMs are fired because they didn’t win is a wise reason to fire them. Again, there are 29 other teams. Not every team can win. I understand the arguments about the playoff drought. I do. But in my view, neither KW, nor RH have ever made a move that one would call a “fireable offense.” While their moves have not always worked out well (Adam Dunn, trading for James Shields, etc), I challenge you to track the transactional history of whomever you believe to be the top 5-10 GMs in baseball, and I guarantee you they have moves on their resumes that look entirely foolish with the benefit of hindsight. Ultimately, KW and RH have provided a very good balance of aggressiveness and forward-thinking responsible behavior. The result of this blend of perspectives has been an opportunity to try to compete when competing made sense, with the ability to entirely pivot and reposition the organization towards a more modern, sustainable approach within a very short timeframe.
If you are of the opinion that talented people with a good thought process should be fired simply because the results don’t always bear out those talents, then you are going to be firing a lot of good people. From my perspective, the FO should only be fired because their thought process was entirely wrong, or they lacked the ability to execute on that thought process. I feel that neither of these is the case with our FO. The team simply didn’t win. And that is indeed partially their fault. But the more important measure of their work during this time period, tbh, is that they did not make any moves to seriously handcuff the organization moving forward. Say what you will about the efficacy of some of their efforts, but a seldom mentioned one is their ability to retain future flexibility as a result of avoiding the really crippling moves.
Fourthly, if you’ve witnessed the transactions which we’ve made since the decision was made to rebuild, and you think RH is the worst GM in the League...well, I simply cannot understand that logic. The trades of Sale, Eaton and Quintana, while perhaps not perfect in every respect, are fairly difficult to really criticize in my opinion. Those are all strong returns, particularly the first and the last. The Yankees move I was not enthralled with, but to be frank, that isn’t looking too bad the further we get away from it, and to be fair, in reading the reports of how that trade came to fruition, I suspect that may have been a transaction which was negotiated more so by KW than RH, due to KW and Cashman’s longstanding history. But this FO, whomever is doing the actual negotiations, took a handful of assets with surplus value (whom they acquired, signed, etc) and turned a bottom third farm system into a top 3 system in all of baseball, the headliners of which, should all be on the mlb team within 18 months or so.
The execution of these latest transactions, including the Robert deal, are incredibly undersold around here. The ability to get the return for Sale they did (despite the fact that he is a HoF pitcher), is to be commended. In the 12 months leading up to that trade, the VAST majority of folks here thought Sale was untradable (Balta, yourself included) because no organization would pay the necessary return. WRONG. The Eaton deal was widely praised everywhere (with the exception of ss2k, who was furious we didn’t get a few bats...was he wrong, in retrospect?), and still is likely to end up a big winner for the organization. The Quintana deal needs no explanation. The discipline to wait and wait and wait, while Quintana made lukewarm start after lukewarm start, to finally POUNCE on an aggressive GM caught up in the moment was BRILLIANT, and will likely provide this Organization with two extremely critical pieces moving forward, each of which could very easily provide more value individually than the player which was traded.
So in conclusion...is this FO the best FO in basebal? Is RH the sharpest mind in baseball? Likely not. There are some incredibly taklented folks in this business. However, is he the worst? Absolutely not. Not even close.
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13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
What you might notice from your list is that out of them, The Tigers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Mariners, and Marlins have all fired or replaced their general managers during the stretch where Rick Hahn has somehow avoided being fired. In some cases they have done so more than once. Furthermore, the Orioles and Tigers have Division titles during that stretch, and the D-backs have a wild card birth. The Mariners, Padres, and Marlins have all won substantially more games than the White Sox during that stretch as well. We will see if the M's can break their playoffless streak this year, but they're likely to be above .500, something we have yet to see Rick Hahn ever do.
The best story, since you bring it up, is the Arizona Diamondbacks. At the end of the 2014 season, Dave Stewart was brought in to be their general manager. Prior to the 2016 season, they spent big, signing Zack Greinke. They traded away prospects to bring in underperforming pitching. They said "we are ready to win now". They dramatically underperformed and finished in 4th place. What did they do in response, declare that everything was fine and they were trying again?
They fired their manager and GM. The new guys...made the wild card. That's what happens when better organizations make mistakes. That's how I can confidently say we will never see a run of failure like Rick Hahn's run of failure again, because no other franchise would have let it go on that long, and once the current ownership group changes, the White Sox won't let runs of failure like this go on this long either.
This entire line of posts are so incredibly ridiculous, I can only guess that you simply felt like arguing with people this weekend. This is utterly preposterous.
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15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
I have no idea what you’re even talking about at this point as you continue to move the goalposts from post to post.
But this idea that Moncada didn’t put up great statistics in the minors is nothing more than a false narrative you’ve constructed to aid in your pessimism towards him. Let’s actually look at some numbers to put an end to this bullshit.
Yoan put up wRC+ of 156 & 152 at A+ & AA respectively as a 21 year old. Those ranked were amongst the leaders in both leagues and were very comparable to the numbers fellow uber prospect Andrew Benintendi put up despite Yoan being a year younger. He then put up a wRC+ of 130 in AAA as a 22 year old & actually had much better numbers before he got banged up.
Point is, there is a reason almost every single publication had him as a top 1 or 2 overall prospect: he combined elite tools with high end production. The hype was and still is warranted no matter how hard you try to spit it.
I just don’t understand what the folks are watching that are already calling the guy a bust.
I cannot pretend as though his stubborn approach at times doesn’t frustrate me.
However, when he does square up a pitch he likes, do you not see how the ball comes off his bat? Do you not see how f’ing fast he is? Even when he is down 0-2, do you see how he pisses on pitches out of the zone? Did you see that in July, his RH PAs have taken a large step forward?
I don’t know how else to say it, as so many other folks have said it, but Yoan already HAS the most difficult to acquire tools/skills he needs to be a superstar player. The ones he has to improve upon are those that come far more easy. He learn that he simply cannot be so selective. He will understand how much damage he can do on pitches in the zone, even if they are not precisely to his liking. This will come with more PAs, and with continued study.
When it does...watch out
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37 minutes ago, flavum said:
Madrigal was the 4th pick in the draft...there should be optimism. He also has an elite eye- the dude doesn’t strike out. And he has plus/plus makeup.
Moncada is just tools right now, which are great and could make him a superstar someday, but he has to cut back on the Ks and show more focus day-to-day.
Not sure Madrigal has an elite eye...perhaps elite hand-eye coordination, but from what he has said in interviews, he prefers to swing at anything close rather than leave the decision up to the umpires.
Is there a way to combine Moncada and Madrigal into the ultimate player?
I enjoy the optimism around Madrigal, but the more I think about his profile, and see his early returns, the more “blah” I feel about him.
Not that we don’t need that type of player in our org - we do - but I just don’t know if he will be the type of high level producer that some might expect.
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On 7/25/2018 at 6:40 AM, soxfan49 said:
Next time you post your opinions about the NFL in general, I'll remember to take into account that you were unsure if the best FS in football was still on the Seahawks or not
Oh, you DO that...maybe he should be fined as well, by you, the almighty arbiter of message board credibility!
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19 minutes ago, Wanne said:
it is what it is right now in terms of the CBA...but in regards to bringing up Eloy of Kopech right now I'm of the opinion:
Extra year of control > our self satisfaction for a few months
I’m not concerned about the fan base. I’m concerned about the players.
That said, I trust that the organization knows far better than I do, so I will patiently wait.
And check twitter every 5 min to see if either have been brought up yet.
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3 hours ago, 35thstreetswarm said:
The argument wasn’t Eloy vs Gleyber right now, or in the future. It was whether 2017 Eloy’s trade value as an A ball prospect (at the time he was traded) was equal to Gleyber’s trade value right now—after already blowing through the minors and succeeding at the ml level. Those values are obviously not equivalent.
The fact that Eloy’s value has exploded since the 2017 trade due to his production at the AA and AAA levels only further proves that point.
My comment was tongue in cheek, but if we want to actually be accurate, then let’s be accurate. Gleyber’s stock was down after hyperextending his elbow last year and then struggling in spring training this season. He came up to the majors several weeks later, and as we have seen with a few others (Ozzie Albies), his ability to hit the Major League baseball for power far outweighed his pereceived ability and his production in the minor leagues. Thus, his value has since skyrocketed from where it was even as a minor leaguer. Secondly, Eloy’s value actually really exploded in 2016, when he raked across two full levels of A ball. Certainly he carried that through the last 18 months, but he really became an elite prospect in 2016, to be fair.
My comment about “give him a month,” was in reference to the characteristics of Major League Baseball’s current ball. There is NO doubt in my mind that Eloy will come up and produce immediately. He isn’t a guy that is getting by on talent alone - this dude understands how to hit at a professional level. I truly believe we are looking at a Manny Ramirez type of hitter here. When he comes up, with this particular baseball, I feel like his stock will make a similar or greater jump than what we’ve seen from some of the other kids that have come up.
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7 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:
Torres is already producing at the major league level. There's no argument at all that Jimenez is an equivalent asset.
Give it about a month then.
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Maybe Rabbit would know...
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On 6/12/2018 at 10:22 AM, kwolf68 said:
Walking well over 5 per 9 with an ERA pushing 5.00. If he's close I would hate to see someone far. Kopech is on fast track to the bullpen with that command. The Sale trade NEEDS to happen for us and so far early returns cast doubt on how much the Sox will get out of this. NO DOUBT Moncada and Kopech have supreme talent, but also have some serious flaws in their games.
While having the high profile prospects from the Sale trade become productive MLB players would be beneficial, this really is not how we need to look at the rebuild. We need enough guys to succeed out of the whole, but certainly none from any particular trade. That is meaningless.
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1 minute ago, RockRaines said:
I’ve both researched and battled depression myself. The key piece of healthy living is having someone to support and talk to you. Far too often people feel like they are left on an island with no way off. I could go on and on about the subject for hours but at the end of the day, I am personally available for anyone who needs it. I don’t give a fuck if I know you or not. You are not alone. I’ll gladly share my direct contact info with anyone who thinks they need it. There is nothing wrong with asking for help, in fact as someone who has been there, you should.
Right on, Rock.
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3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:
As many of you know, I have spoken many times about my experiences being Autistic. I'm here to talk about the other two issues I deal with, that I am not ashamed of, and I'm putting it out there. Along with Autism, I also deal with Bipolar disorder and Generalized Anxiety. Wil Wheaton wrote a piece about how GAD/clinical depression are the tag team champions of mental illness,. I'll share that article If those two are the tag team champions, when you add autism to the mix it really is the unholy trinity. I thought 'd share this with everyone, due to the recent suicides of Anthony Bourdain and Kate Spade. If anyone has questions, feel free to add to the discussion and I'd be glad to answer anything. Open Forum.
EDIT. Having a hard time finding Wil Wheaton's article again. Will keep trying.
Thanks JP...appreciate you being will to share. I will undoubtedlty continue to ask for your thoughts and experiences.
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On 6/1/2018 at 5:44 AM, RockRaines said:
Lebron is the best player of all time, he's always the best on the court.
No. LeBron may be the most physically blessed played of all time. He is not the best. He’s not been the best on the court in a lot of games he’s played in. And he absolutely has nowhere near the mental or emotional game that Michael had.
The way he is currently behaving on the court is absolutely embarrassing and pathetic.
He sure does put his shoulder down, clear out with the off hand, and go to the basket hard though.
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On 6/1/2018 at 11:27 AM, Steve9347 said:
Agreed, and longevity matters. His career has transcended Jordan's, and in my opinion he's a far superior player than MJ could ever have hoped to be and a superior talent among his generation than MJ was among his.
The talent/dominance gap from LeBron to whomever the fuck you'd consider the 2nd best player in this generation is massive. He's on another planet.
HAH
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10 hours ago, StrangeSox said:
bad news for solar:
Billions in U.S. solar projects shelved after Trump panel tariff
(Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s tariff on imported solar panels has led U.S. renewable energy companies to cancel or freeze investments of more than $2.5 billion in large installation projects, along with thousands of jobs, the developers told Reuters.
That’s more than double the about $1 billion in new spending plans announced by firms building or expanding U.S. solar panel factories to take advantage of the tax on imports.
The tariff’s bifurcated impact on the solar industry underscores how protectionist trade measures almost invariably hurt one or more domestic industries for every one they shield from foreign competition. Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, for instance, have hurt manufacturers of U.S. farm equipment made with steel, such as tractors and grain bins, along with the farmers buying them at higher prices.
Yeah but there is a ton of Chinese surplus, so there may be a price drop which nearly negates the effect of the tariff. I don’t believe it will have quite the impact that was once feared.
In fact, First Solar, an American manufacturer that was hoping to take advantage of the tariff, saw their stock price tank on the news of the Chinese surplus.
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10 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:
You really don't see much residential solar in Illinois, so I'm guessing the incentives/rebates don't really work out yet.
Won’t be long
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So I’ve been spending the last few months studying rooftop solar and Tesla Powerwall 2, and particularly, whether there is a way to utilize the batteries to enhance the rooftop solar value proposition.
Our rates are pretty reasonable here, so the ROI on a solar system isn’t quite as fast as in some other states, but we can see break even points in or around the 8-10 year mark. However, the question I sought to answer was, if I utilized Powerwalls to offset my time of use peak rates in the summer, would that speed up the payback time? ‘
We have a time of use (TOU) option where peak power, between 1-7, is about 36 cents per kWh. All other power is between 3.8-5.8 cents or so. We also have a net metering construct wherein we are provided a credit at 95% of the retail rate. So between the credits accumulated in the Spring when production is higher than consumption, and not fully knowing what our peak demands are in the summer, it’s a bit of a hazy analysis.
To make matters more difficult, in Nevada, you have a choice when it comes to batteries. You can either charge from the grid and discharge solely behind the meter (to your home), or discharge to the grid, but only through charging from your solar panels. Additionally, to qualify for the investment tax credit, you can only claim the percentage of the credit equal to that which you charge from a renewable resource.
Anyways, as it stands today, there is a backlog on batteries, so I will have time over the summer to dial in the analysis. I expect that between the federal incentive, as well as state incentives, each Powerwall 2 will cost about $2,500. I suspect there is a clear opportunity to hasten the payback on a combined solar+storage residential system through arbitrage of the peak TOU rate with about 3 batteries. I am currently leaning on moving forward with the panels shortly, and then considering batteries when they are available.
Do the economics of rooftop solar work for you guys yet there?
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1 minute ago, StrangeSox said:
Check out the Metcalf attack from 2013. Kicked off a big regulatory change from NERC throughout the industry.
Yeah, I am not on the delivery side so I only tangentially aware of some of those issues.
Funny to see NERC on this forum
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3 hours ago, StrangeSox said:
Oh hey NV energy, I was just working on a quote for you guys for a substation that keeps getting shot at from a makeshift firing range on BLM land
Really? That’s interesting! Gotta love substations doubling as target shooting.
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I recently joined this part of our organization, and will be working on projects like this for the foreseeable future. Incredibly exciting area to be involved in.
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What evidence is there that he is older than is reported?
And the comments on Jose being larger or whatever...I think he’s actually much thinner than he’s been in previous years.
Jose and Shields are two guys that are adding value well-beyond their on-field contributions to the organization. Moving Jose, absent just an absolute pillaging of another team would not be wise, IMHO.
I wouldn’t mind extending him to something that makes sense for both parties. The guy has earned it, and the young kids would benefit.
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9 hours ago, Balta1701 said:
If a study doesn't take into account the time of day that the car is charging compared to the time when the electric grid is at peak demand then you have wasted my time. If you are running a plant overnight to charge extra cars you are dramatically increasing the efficiency of the entire system because even for gas systems there is a benefit to keeping them running (Coal, nuclear, and wind have much larger benefits if you charge overnight).
This is a standard lobbyist type paper. Take into account the factors that are most beneficial to you, neglect a few other ones casually, and then hope that people aren't educated enough to notice.
Interesting point, Balta, and you are correct. The reason many utilities offer special time of use rates or EV rates overnight is to encourage load consumption during off-peak hours which does aid in keeping plants online and reduces costs. California, due to their abundance of solar, is actually going to begin shifting their EV rates to hours in the late morning and early afternoon, to hopefully raise consumption during those hours so they aren’t paying other states to take their solar.
There are a lot of different factors here at play, and it is very complex, but I find it hard to believe that on the whole, the growing prevalence of EVs won’t be much cleaner on balance, including cleaning up a lot of the emissions in cities.
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6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:
https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2018/05/15/are-electric-cars-worse-for-the-environment-000660
Are electric vehicles actually WORSE for the environment (and for the poor/lower middle class)?
I can buy the subsidies part...and yes, if you are buying an EV in Wyoming or Idaho or WV and charging off the grid, then yes, your EV is probably indirectly dirtier than many recent vintage gas combustion vehicles. But as much of the country becomes more deeply penetrated by renewables, it is beneficial for the EV industry to mature now, so that when EVs really begin representing a sizable portion of overall vehicles, they will be utilizing much cleaner electricity.
Cracks in trust the process
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
Here we are, back at point number 1.
You have absolutely no idea what the owner of the team wanted. Have you ever read actual accounts from GMs about how operating an MLB team actually works, in real life?
Most GMs are simply doing their best to carry out the orders of their Owner. Sometimes, their owner is not being entirely reasonable. You should read Ned Coletti’s book to get an idea about that.
Not everyone gets to come in and make the decision whether to compete or not simply because they are the GM. See Jake’s post below. And before someone says it, NO, IF YOU WERE RICK HAHN AND JR INSISTED YOU TO TRY AND COMPETE IN 2014, YOU WOULD NOT QUIT YOUR JOB. That is a downright ridiculous, disingenuous notion that couldn’t be further from actual truth.
I suspect there is some truth to what Jake is saying, and it very well may have taken the futility of 2013-16 to convince JR to allow them to rebuild. The Cubs winning in 2016 also has a huge influence on JR, and this is fairly well-documented.
You admit that it was basically impossible for the White Sox to win between 2013-2016. While I have been watching baseball long enough to disagree with that, you are correct in stating it was an incredibly difficult task. In the end, I don’t lay much fault at their feet for not succeeding in a such a task, particularly since it was very likely not a choice they had in the first place.