JUSTgottaBELIEVE

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 10:32 PM) Yes, on the grounds that Sale isn't Kershaw. Everyone who isn't a Sox fan will tell you the same. Sale is better than Greinke historically. Greinke is having an extremely lucky season. Put Sale's number at slightly better than Zack's number last year, 2.30 -2.40 ERA, sure. That would make it half a run better than Chris's career ERA. Kershaw also benefits by pitching in LA where his career ERA is nearly 1 run lower than on the road. Sales and Kershaws career ERA on the road are only 0.11 apart and that's while Kershaw is pitching against inferior NL lineups including pitchers rather than DH

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 10:25 PM) I'd be willing to bet anyone that any particular team won't win it all, odds are always going to be in your favor if you take the field. This isn't the NBA where Golden State is getting favorable odds in Vegas to win a title at the beginning of the playoffs. I will give that person 10:1 odds as well

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 10:25 PM) I'd be willing to bet anyone that any particular team won't win it all, odds are always going to be in your favor if you take the field. This isn't the NBA where Golden State is getting favorable odds in Vegas to win a title at the beginning of the playoffs. I will give that person 10:1 odds as well

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 10:24 PM) I'm 30. I watched the World Series team just like you did. The organization celebrated by continually driving into the ground. I wouldn't trade 2005 to be a Cubs fan right now. The Cubs haven't won anything yet and the odds of them winning the Series are still against them. Cubs fans may never experience what I and other Sox fans experienced in 2005.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 10:20 PM) You can believe whatever you want, but you will have a hard time convincing many other people. You also haven't put out any strong arguments on why Sale would be 1 run better than he currently is. There are plenty of points listed out for you in this thread already, but you chose to ignore them, Someone already mentioned that batters will make adjustments to him as they face him more, I also mentioned that pitchers won't do that much better (maybe for a short stretch, but certainly not a fully season or across seasons) even if they switched leagues. Many times, they do slightly better or they could even do worst. See Shields and Scherzer as the latest example. It's really this simple to me. Sale is as good as Kershaw and Grienke in my opinion. So I would expect him to post similar numbers to those guys if he pitched in the NL. Put Sale on the Dodgers today and those are the numbers I would expect from him. Do you disagree?

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 10:15 PM) Honestly it's foolhardy to make predictions on what will happen in the playoffs. Baseball is just so random anything could happen and I wouldn't be surprised. A team could win 115 games 5 straight seasons and never get out of the first round. On the other hand, a mediocre team could get hot and win it all due to some scrub playing over his head. The quality of the team means less in the baseball playoffs than in any other sport. You just have to get in. agreed but I would be willing to bet anyone the Cubs don't win the Series this year.

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 10:13 PM) God this we are so White Sox fans. What matters is the Cubs are in it and we are perpetually garbage. At the end of the day all that matters is WS titles and both franchises have been historically awful by that measure. It just so happens that the Cubs have been even more futile by this measure. How old are you? Do you even remember the 2005 championship? That was only 10 years ago. I'm sure your comeback will be what have they done the last 10 years blah blah blah but no Cubs fans have experienced a WS title in their lifetime so I will take 10 years all day.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 10:11 PM) Pirates have some good righty hitters to face Arrieta, who holds lefties to about a .450 OPS and righties to around .575 If you watched tonight, lefties had no prayer on his Loaiza-esque slider funny you say that because I mentioned to my buddies earlier this year how much Arrieta reminds me of White Sox Loaiza. Sets hitters up with the fastball and puts them away with the hard breaking slider. Also hitting spots at ease the way Loaiza did with the Sox.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 10:08 PM) I agree Sale would probably benefit being in the NL probably more than just about anyone. The NL seems to really struggle hitting offspeed pitches. Also, Sale would dominate pitchers trying to bat so much, he could easily pitch around the 8 hitter if he's in trouble. I've seen Hammel and Samardzija dominate in the NL with their offspeed pitches and look like trash in the AL throwing the same pitches. thank you. It is perplexing that fellow Sox fans would adamantly argue this and claim that the idea of Sale having an ERA below 2 pitching in the NL this year as "far-fetched". It's almost like Sox fans have no idea how big of a disparity there is right now between the two leagues. It's really not even close. throw in the pitcher batting instead of a DH 3 times a game and it's the exact opposite of far-fetched.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 10:06 PM) The Royals or Blue Jays would wipe out the Cubs anyway... absolutely and so will the cardinals if they get past the pirates in the play-in game

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 10:01 PM) See edit in my earlier comment. Bottom line, NL = NBA Eastern Conference, AL = NBA Western Conference. I believe Sale would absolutely dominate in the NL and I have yet to see factual evidence provided in this thread that would change my mind. Sure you can call the statistics that I cited as insignificant due to sample size but what statistics do you have that would prove this small sample size should be completely disregarded?

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 09:59 PM) My comment was true, yours was uninformed. it had no relevance to the discussion I was having with others. no idea why you felt the need to jump in with a completely irrelevant comment to the discussion at hand.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 09:57 PM) Sure since their offense is incredibly cheap potentially $500-550M tied up in 3 pitchers sounds like a pretty steep investment regardless

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 09:57 PM) Cubs still aren't in the AL, so this comment is irrelevant. so was yours...

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 09:55 PM) You would be wrong. This season is gravy. You better believe the Flubs are the favorite for David Price. Epstein isn't shortsighted. No high end Cub prospect is worth a rental. if he signs Price in the offseason, can he afford Arrieta after the 2017 season when hits free agency?

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 09:53 PM) Yeah and we are still horses*** Cubs aren't even a playoff team in the AL. they'd be fortunate to be 5 games over .500

like J4L said a few weeks ago, no hitters aren't even a big deal anymore (especially when pitching against NL teams)

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 09:47 PM) That's comparing apples to oranges, there are so many factors that played in Greinke's season so far, 1 being this is his contract year, the other being that he's been extremely lucky. He currently has the 2nd lowest BABIP in the league at .234, for comparisons sake his career BABIP is .300. Sale is at .290 career wise FYI. If you were wondering why Greinke became so good this year, look no further. Sale will get better in the NL, but he won't shave 1 full run off his ERA. Just because he's facing a pitcher instead of a DH or that you are trying to extrapolate a 91 inning career sample size is not a convincing argument. see that's the thing it's not just the DH factor. yes, that's part of it but as a league the NL has FAR worse hitters (and pitchers) than the AL.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 08:31 PM) At their best, Sale and Kershaw are 1A and 1B, but Sale goes through the motion and gets hit hard every now and then. Kershaw is the perfect model for consistency and rarely gets himself a bad start. So even if Sale moves to NL, he will still run into those bad starts. He will be better than a 3.20 ERA, but won't be Kershaw good. And for that reason I will agree with LittleHurt, assuming a sub 2.00 ERA is a bit far-fetched. Out of Grienke's 7.5 seasons pitching in the AL, he only had one season in which his ERA was lower than Sale's CAREER ERA. Yet he has an ERA of 1.61 and WHIP of 0.85 pitching in the NL this season. I fail to understand how Sale with a sub-2 ERA while pitching in the NL is far fetched. Sale has a CAREER ERA of 2.85 and his highest over a full season is 3.07. How is that inconsistent? Sure he has some bad starts here and there but everyone does. I would venture to say he'd have far less of those bad starts pitching in the NL.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 09:52 AM) But the other 10 AL pitchers with better ERAs than Sale this season wouldn't see similar decreases because? Maybe they would? I haven't watched the other top AL pitchers nearly as much as I have watched Sale since he joined the Sox so I can't speak for them. Have the other top AL pitchers dominated the NL the same way Sale has over the course of their careers?

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 30, 2015 -> 07:27 AM) 91 innings in 5 plus seasons? That's hardly an established pattern, it's not even half a normal season workload. I'm sure his numbers would be better, but given the grind and ups and downs of a full season and NL teams seeing him more, I don't think you can just assume a sub 2 ERA. That rarely happens as it is. Kershaw has done it in each of the prior two seasons and has a good chance of doing it again this season. In my opinion, Sale is just as good as Kershaw so I certainly can assume he'd replicate Kershaws numbers if he pitched in the NL. Sale's career statistics against the NL even if they only amount to ~half a seasons worth further support this argument.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 29, 2015 -> 09:45 PM) So his ERA would drop in half with a switch to the NL? And by your math Sonny Gray would have a 1.10 ERA in the NL? Doubtful. Didn't say all AL pitchers, just Chris Sale. How do you explain his sub 2 career ERA against the NL while his career ERA against the AL is around 3? This year there is an even greater disparity between his AL vs NL numbers. Coincidence or established pattern?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 29, 2015 -> 07:56 PM) He also missed any NL teams when he was in his 2 rough stretches. That can happen by chance too. If he'd hit an NL team in early April or late July his numbers could look a lot worse. Nah, I'm confident his ERA would be below 2 in the NL this year. He has a career ERA of below 2 against the NL. I don't think that's a mere coincidence or by chance. Plus imagine roughly half of those games were at home with a DH, imagine if all games but interleague road games were played without a DH. Yea I'm thinking an ERA around 1.6-1.8 if he pitched in the NL this year.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Aug 29, 2015 -> 12:35 PM) Grienke esque Yup, without a doubt. 1.20 ERA in 30 innings against the NL this year and of those 4 starts 3 were against NL playoff teams (Cubs and Cards). The numbers Sale would put up in the NL would be video game worthy.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Aug 29, 2015 -> 11:53 AM) Sale is better than Bum and Ker. I don't think their unbeatable but I think their offense is way better than the cubs. Sale would have a sub 2 ERA in the NL