JUSTgottaBELIEVE

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:46 PM) Plus, you have to supplement every year. And that costs a lot of money. Yes. Take a look at what the cubs have done each of the last three or four off seasons. Lester, Fowler (brought him back), Lackey, Heyward, Zobrist, Chatwood, Darvish. I’m sure I’m missing a few.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:40 PM) I really don’t think that’s how baseball works right now. The goal should be to get our core in place and load up for a four or five year window. That is realistically from 2019 to 2024. You don’t make decisions in your window of opportunity because you’re worried how you’ll be able to extend some of your stars six years from. Look at the Cubs, they’ve traded every significant minor league asset and spent like crazy to win now. As a result, they’ll most definitely have to rebuild once Bryant & others hit free agency. I think that’s how the modern MLB works. It’s going to be rare for teams on super long runs without reloading. But it's not just the guys that hit FA 5 years from now. It's also extending guys like Abreu and Avi. If they are planning to trade those guys before next July, then that's just two more spots to fill in the everyday lineup starting in 2020. I really don't see them trading Abreu. I think he is a White Sox through this next contention window. Seems Avi is still a question mark as to whether he fits in the long term plan.

QUOTE (Username @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:13 PM) If Mouse is signing for less than $14 million annually you’re expecting from a market value perspective less than 2 WAR a season (open market is about $7 million per war with no inflation, in normal years). It might make more sense to sign a guy like him now at depressed prices, lock up 3B and give yourself a better long-term shot at re-signing the core guys down the road. Imagine trying to re-sign Eloy, Moncada and Kopech in 5-6 years with Manny declining and making $30 million. These things also don’t happen in a vacuum. If Burger tears it up and Mouse is cheap you have a good problem. Can flip either for other help. And it frees up resources to pursue other positions in FA when you’re not locking $300 million of future payroll in. Plus we are generally bereft of long-term lefty power, and the major 3Bs are righty. I really don't understand the mindset of avoiding a potentially value FA signing to wait around for guys like Machado and Arenado to become available. One, considering ownership, those guys are not realistic targets when they are projected to make $300MM+. Two, give me three guys like Moustakas for one guy like Machado or Arenado. We know there are going to be multiple holes to fill on this roster over the next couple years so why tie yourself down to one guy that restricts the ability to fill other holes? Lastly, like you said, I'd rather they maintain payroll flexibility to afford extending guys like Moncada, Eloy, Abreu, etc. in the future.

And this is all based on the assumption that Moose’s market tanks and he can be had at a very affordable price this winter that does not prohibit future acquisitions to shore up other holes at the top of the order (i.e. leadoff spot assuming Moncada slots in at #2 long term). I think Abreu is a near lock for an extension and holding down the #3 spot. Avi is the big wild card right now. If last year was real he looks very nice as a #4/5 hitter long term. Obviously this year is a big year for him and for the Sox in determining if he is a critical piece for the next competitive window. Moose as an occasional #5 and regular #6 hitter would mean that this lineup is actually very competitve in a couple years imo. I guess I don’t see the big concern for a dramatic drop in his offensive performance over the next few years.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:52 AM) First, as I stated in the first post where I mentioned the ranking, I used a table with a minimum PA number of 50 to find the 107 rank. This is important so that you don't ignore mid-season call-ups. Which did you use? Second, everyone is entirely ignoring context with this signing. If you are making a signing now for the sake of the future, you need to consider the player's performance in the FUTURE. As has been pointed out several times by several posters in this thread, Moustakas is currently 29 years old and has already shown signs of decline. There is no reason to believe his defense will get better with age. His primary contribution (power), is more abundant in today's run environment than ever before. Your initial post that I quoted said something to effect that the white sox are likely not a playoff caliber team in two years (2020) if Moose is hitting in the middle of the lineup. How do you figure? And how do you define “middle of the lineup”? To me, that’s #3 thru #6. How many 2017 playoff teams regularly batted a guy #6 in their lineup last year with an OPS better than .835? Even if you are expecting a drop in performance two years from now, are you expecting it to be so dramatic that his OPS falls below say .750? Even after moving into a more hitter friendly park? For reference, the Yankees scored the second most runs in baseball last year and they were batting Greg Bird in the #6 spot for most of their playoff games. That’s a team that made it to the ALCS and was one game away from knocking off the eventual champ. The guys NL playoff teams were rolling out in that spot in the order were even worse...

QUOTE (KnightsOnMintSt @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 09:11 AM) I am on the side that I would like the White Sox to sign Moustakas. He fills a need, and I feel like if you can get him around 5yr 80mil, the Sox should hop on that. I also dont think a Moustakas signing means that we're out on Machado. We could easily move Moose to 1st or DH, or even slide Machado over to SS, if we were to sign him. White Sox have a lot of money and a lot of options. Yep, to have a guy like Moose batting 6th with guys like Moncada, Abreu, Jimenez, and Avi in front of him sounds fantastic...

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 08:09 AM) Yes, they did, in 2015. When Moustakas was 27 years old and put up a nearly 4-win season -- which is something he hasn't even sniffed since. In 2020, he'll be 32 years old. The Cardinals won a World Series in 2011 with Albert Pujols in the middle of their lineup. That doesn't mean that should be the Angels' plan now. He’s 29 years old coming off a season in which he posted a 2.2 fWAR entirely driven by his offensive production. To say the Sox are unlikely to be a playoff caliber team with a guy like him batting in the middle of their lineup makes no sense imo.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 05:35 PM) Neither does Moustakas. He's a lefty, yes, but if he's in the middle of our lineup in 2020, that means it probably isn't a playoff-caliber lineup. The Royals won a World Series with Moose in he middle of their lineup

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 01:12 PM) I'm pretty confident in saying that the White Sox won't be forfeiting the 45th pick and $2 million in draft capital to sign Mike Moustakas. Why would they lose their 45th pick and not their third round pick (I.e. “third highest pick”)? Sox don’t have a sandwich pick this year.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Feb 7, 2018 -> 03:44 PM) DAN CLARK‏Verified account @DanClarkSports The #Orioles and #Indians spoke this past week about a potential trade for Manny Machado. https://twitter.com/DanClarkSports/status/961328256015192064 makes too much sense. said this weeks ago. I hope they make the deal too because that depletes their farm system moving forward for a one year run at a title (in a year the Sox are not trying to compete).

This is an example of why I don't place an overemphasis on number of rings when evaluating all time great QB's. Brady played outstanding and still lost. Yes, he fumbled at a key moment in the game but he otherwise put up ridiculous numbers and moved the offense down the field at will. Yet, his defense failed him and that's why they lost. It's the same reason Rodgers only has one ring right now (well that and Bill B. >>> McCarthy).

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jan 27, 2018 -> 02:12 PM) He had us #10 last year, and that was after the Sale/Eaton trades; since then we picked up an elite talent from Q, but Moncada, Giolito and Lopez graduated. Still the Sox rose 6 spots...he must like a lot of the secondary acquisitions. I'm pretty stoked about #4, considering the above. But ranking the Sox #10 at this time last year was a joke.

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Jan 27, 2018 -> 01:56 PM) Sounds about right to me. Sox have nowhere near the depth as those teams. I disagree. I think they are just as deep or even deeper than the Yankees now and better at the top. It’s close with the Padres. I’d give the Padres a slight edge in depth but I like the Sox top 5 much better.

Law has the Sox as the #4 farm system. Seems low. He has Braves, Yankees and Padres as #1-3 in that order.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2221144...petitive-cancer I mean his view is certainly biased but I agree with him in some aspects.

QUOTE (credezcrew24 @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 02:29 PM) Look at how baseball cube comes up with their speed rating. "Speed: Number of stolen bases per trips to first base. Does not consider whether there are other runners on base blocking his path". That is legitimately the worst way to measure speed I've ever seen. My baseball cube page says I had a higher speed rating than Jacob May. I can assure you that I was never faster than Jacob May and it probably wasn't even close.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 15, 2018 -> 02:37 PM) The upside to Reed is not high enough to offset the risk. Go back to guys like Kahnle or Swarzak, dealt to the Brewers who was pretty pedestrian with Minnesota, etc. it’s not like when we paid through the teeth for Linebrink and Dotel, but it’s not really necessary either. Heck, I’d rather that we tried to fix Albuquerque, but Cooper passed on that one. Nunez doesn’t make sense with SANCHEZ, Davidson and Leury still around. Seems like he becomes another Bonifacio or Beckham on our roster and is dumped for a meh return. We still have to see Delmonico, Cordell, Tilson as well...plenty of young players to throw out there. Gillespie, maybe. I’m assuming they will try to trade Kevan Smith, that deal for Castillo was kind of the outlier, which probably has more to do with pitch framing and managing a young staff than anything else. Smith is limited by the lack of power for someone that size, no matter how much he overachieved compared to low expectations entering the year. I guess I'm just a Reed fan so I disagree. I also think the bullpen is still a hot mess even after accounting for the additions of Soria and Avilan. I don't think adding a guy like Reed "blocks" anyone else either. Not for the next 2 years at least.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 15, 2018 -> 01:28 PM) $8 million is a lot for me to give up for a reliever on this team for 2018 if I'm not getting another piece back along with it. That $8 million is way more useful to me next offseason. See edit above. I think you would get another piece back (and possibly 3 pieces back). If he was traded this July, he wouldn't be on the books for next offseason anyway. What's the worst thing that could happen? He gets hurt or performs lousy and you are still stuck with him for one more season at a still reasonable rate. If his ~$8.5MM contract next season is a deal breaker in whether or not the Sox sign a guy like Machado, then this rebuild is in serious trouble.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 15, 2018 -> 01:18 PM) At this point, Soria is the closer until someone takes the job from him, and I'm totally ok with that. No reason to sign another reliever this year - if we can develop a couple from our system that makes us a lot better in 2019, and we could darn well find another "Soria" like guy that a team has soured on to take on and that would serve us better than signing one because presumably we'd get something else for taking on the salary. There's really no reason to pay full price for a free agent on this team this year. I guess that was kind of my point. It doesn't seem Reed accepted "full price" because he wanted to play in the Midwest. 2 years/$17MM for a solid reliever in his prime (be it setup guy or closer) is peanuts in this market and another flippable asset 6 months from now. The young guys will have plenty of time to prove themselves after that and into 2019... Edit: for reference, although the Red Sox didn't trade any premier prospects for Reed last July, they did trade 3 of their top 30 prospects for him. Barring a significant decrease in performance in the first half of the season, no reason to think he couldn't return a similar package this July. Possibly even more if he proved he could successfully close over the first 4 months.

At this point, the only area I would consider FA signing is pitching. Pitching on short term contracts (assuming they are performing moderately well) can always be flipped at the deadline. Disappointed the Sox didn't make a play for Reed considering what he signed for. Could be a solid trade chip at either this or next year's deadline, especially if he were tasked with closing.

Yep I’m down with weekly lineups and a nominal entry fee. A 30 team league with full 25/40 man rosters would be a blast.

QUOTE (Moncada @ Jan 2, 2018 -> 06:24 PM) I was thinking free, with an optional money pool I’d be interested if there was a nominal entry fee to keep people’s interest. Been in too many free leagues over the years where half the league loses interest before the all star break.

QUOTE (Moncada @ Jan 2, 2018 -> 03:16 PM) It's a little slow so I thought I'd see if there is any interest. I'd like to start a large 30 team deep Dynasty league (message board in conjunction with Fantrax) Something like 25-30 major league roster with 15-20 minor league roster. Mods please move in need be. Message me or post if there is any interest. The sooner the better. List of those interested: Moncada LTBF cjgalloway SmashROT jerksticks Entry fee?

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 20, 2017 -> 12:20 PM) Cameron wrote an article today suggesting the Indians go after Machado and move Ramirez back to 2B. That would be ideal for us IMO, subtract from their future years when we'll be competitive. I said this in this thread about 15 pages back. Why are the Indians not major players for Machado? Their window is closing fast and they are in win-now mode. On top of that, they can't rely on Kipnis at this point (plus he's being floated as trade bait) so Ramirez is their STARTING 2b next year just as he was at the end of last season. Machado is a HUGE upgrade over Urshela/Diaz. Plus, that type of addition more than offsets the loss of Santana's bat in the lineup. It makes too much sense for where they are currently positioned.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 20, 2017 -> 08:19 AM) No doubt. It remains to be seen how effective it will be. It's a very good test case for sure. I haven't seen a starting pitcher hit the weights this hard and undertake such an unorthodox training program since Roger Clemens. I'm sure there are others but none that I am aware of or at least none that I have seen documented so openly. If he has half the career Clemens did, I'd be thrilled.