JUSTgottaBELIEVE

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Sep 3, 2016 -> 09:01 PM) There's nothing wrong with signing the veteran IF you have the strong young core. But that's the problem...the Sox have a very thin core. The Sox core is 4 or 5 players with no depth. The Cubs had twice that, with depth. The Cubs traded their veterans to build their team. Look no further than how the teams approached Samardzija: the Cubs get their franchise shortstop, and then Rick Hahn, off of 73 wins, adds 1 year of Samardziaj for 4 young players. That trade alone showed the difference between a quality front office and a front office that doesn't know how to build a team. The have added veterans 2 years in a row to "go for it", and not only didn't make the playoffs, haven't come close to .500. Enough is enough. But isn't that another reason for signing mid tier talent like Fister or Volquez to short term deals? I mean it's not going to break the bank and if they produce you can dump them at the deadline for young talent if you are out of the race. It's not like signing them will cost a draft pick either. If they don't produce then you aren't stuck long term with a bad contract. Not sure why anyone would have a problem with those types of signings.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 3, 2016 -> 04:34 PM) Why that was more expectable from Fister than Latos I have no idea. Latos put up an 89 ERA+ in 2015 before the White Sox signed him, Volquez is at 88 this year. Fister is slightly better but also worth noting that both of those guys will be 33 next year. This is exactly how we got to where we are right now. Signing guys to be "good enough". This is the Rick Hahn Special thinking. Sign a guy that is good enough and your team will be good enough to make a run at the 2nd wild card when nothing goes wrong. This thinking has failed us repeatedly and will keep failing us. Stuff always goes wrong. Stop trying to build a team that is "good enough". Stop thinking about the wild card at all. The teams winning the wild card most years are teams that are plenty good to win a division the year before or the year after. Stop trying to assemble a team that is good enough and hoping that nothing goes wrong. Build a team that is clearly the best in the division. Build a team that is clearly the best in the league. Build the best organization in the league. Do that, and when something goes wrong, then you still have the Wild Card and a system that can support you with trades or callups when something goes wrong without it destroying your franchise. This mindset is how we got articles about how much better the catcher's slot would be this year than last year. This is how I got convinced that Keppinger was a good signing. This mindset is how we wound up with every other Rick Hahn Special. If we keep it up, eventually we'll win that 2nd wild card. As long as you're happy with 1 second-wild-card appearance every decade or two, then that's the mindset for you. It's how we got where we are right now, so as long as you're happy with where we are right now, then go right ahead. I want that thinking tossed out the window, because I'm tired of where we are right now. Are we talking about the same Mat Latos that only threw 116 innings in 2015 and has contended with injury concerns since his 2013 season? When the Sox signed him I said they'd be lucky to get 20 starts out of him and I'm pretty sure most on this site said the same thing. I'd expect more from Volquez and Fister absolutely. There is no question they are a tier above Latos and fully capable of filling out the back end of a rotation.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 3, 2016 -> 04:18 PM) How do you expect the Sox to have the money to sign another starter when we're already paying Shields $10M and will need significant financial resources to fix the offense? How much will a guy like Volquez cost? Guess? I'll say 2 years/$10-12MM. Not breaking the bank and only a few more million per year than what they gave Latos

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 3, 2016 -> 01:58 PM) After all, the "Rick Hahn Special" signing is how we got where we are today, and since we are happy with where this franchise is today we should keep doing the same thing. No one is happy with how the team is playing this year but there is no denying the fantastic front end of the rotation that has developed which has an ability to become even deeper if Fulmer reaches his potential. There is nothing wrong with signing a veteran on a short term deal for additional depth and to support the back end of the rotation. Heck even everyone's favorite team around here the Cubs signed 33 year old Jason Hammel to a 2 year deal to do exactly what I'm describing. Similarly Doug Fister was signed to a 1 year deal by the Astros. You just can't count on these guys to be front of the rotation starters but a low to mid 4 ERA and 160+ IP is a perfectably reasonable expectation and very valuable. Nobody expected that from guys like Latos, Paulino, etc. but I would expect that from guys like Volquez and Fister, which are another tier up. JR has to be willing to spend that extra $ to get guys that are serviceable rather than scrap heap headed out of the league types. This would mean expanding the payroll another $15-20MM next season.

I'm perfectly fine with going into next season with Omar as the backup catcher but still think they need to sign a starter in the offseason. I'm hoping for Wieters.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 2, 2016 -> 10:24 PM) Yes, but we saw that out of Rodon the second half last year as well. Didn't translate. At any rate, Shields, Gonzalez and Fulmer will make or break the season... I think a lot of people lose sight of the fact that Rodon is only 23. I fully expect an ERA in the 3.30-3.50 range next season over 180+ IP. Legit #2 numbers by AL standards. As far as Shields is concerned, the new manager should not let him make or break the back end of the rotation. The manager has to have the balls and the ability to throw him in the pen if Fulmer is the better pitcher next spring, which I fully expect he will be. As I stated in another thread, I wouldn't be opposed to taking a flier on someone like Fister or Volquez on a 1 or 2 year deal as added insurance/depth since they will be relatively cheap.

With Rodon coming into his own, I'm really pumped about what this rotation can do next season. Sale, Q, Rodon form arguably the best 1-3 combo in the league and back it up with Gonzo and hopefully a solid Fulmer and that rotation certainly has the potential to be top 2 or 3 in the league. It's hard to break up a rotation that strong with 4 of the 5 guys under 30 yo still. I'm all in on building around that staff but the front office has their work cut out for them this offseason in order to improve other areas of weakness on the roster.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 2, 2016 -> 02:23 PM) There's a mutual $10 million agreement or $3 million buyout on Volquez. Will be an interesting decision. They theoretically have Vargas coming back. Duffy (last arb. season), Kennedy, Ventura...they don't want to start Young anymore, so back end of Gee, Vargas and Strahm plus $17 million freed up from Medlen/Volquez means they add another pitcher or 2-3 relievers. I'm assuming they buyout Volquez considering his performance this season. I'd take a flier at 2 years/$10MM

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 2, 2016 -> 01:57 PM) L Leave out Duke was traded, Petricka and Putnam not there, Gonzalez hurt, 40% of the rotation a gas can...the starting 2B out. The starting CF out. Yea, to me it really comes down to Shields and bullpen for the August failures. Both these areas should be addressed this offseason. Relegate Shields to the bullpen if he hasn't recovered any velocity next spring and start Fulmer. For extra insurance, might not hurt to sign a vet on a 1 or 2 year deal for less than $10 AAV. I'd be fine with someone like Fister or Volquez. Both would be upgrades to Shields while eating up innings and not costing a draft pick. Bullpen is a little trickier but I don't think it needs a complete overhaul. Just tinkering add another arm or two via FA/trade, promote Burdi, healthy returns of Putnam and Petricka (hopefully), and a better year from Robertson. Bullpens are fickle and it should be dramatically improved from what we just witnessed in August.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 03:03 PM) What ought to concern is... What we saw in August is sort of how the White Sox are supposed to work right? Abreu putting up MVP numbers, Rodon Quintana and Sale all putting up ERAs under 3 for the month, production from the DH spot, normal numbers from Eaton, good numbers from Anderson, production from the catcher's spot, hell even a great 1/2 month from Garcia , he back 3 in the bullpen all present and healthy (Jones, Robertson, Jennings). And given all that, they still went 12-15 in the month. Fine, add in some extra bullpen depth and pretend no one gets hurt and that goes up to 13-14 wins...but man. Abreu's hitting like this and even then they're still a .500 team. Well not really. #1 Shields #2 Bullpen Those are two things that are relatively easy to address in the offseason.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 2, 2016 -> 10:53 AM) Abreu now at .814. He's so hot he might finish with a better OPS than last year, who knows? With a big September it's absolutely possible. So what changed? That's the question. The lineup looks so much better with a Jose Abreu posting a 900+ OPS, especially if the holes at C, CF, and DH are addressed this offseason.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 05:12 PM) 4 straight years of sub .500 to championship? That would be....impressive Difficult? Yes. Impossible? No. There's a lot of parity in the AL right now. Just look at the wild card standings. Coming into this season, who thought the Rangers were a legitimate WS contender? 1 of 31 "experts" picked them to win the ALCS. Now they have the best record in the league and are the favorite to win the ALCS. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/page/seaso...ons-2016-season

QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 02:24 PM) They'll come home that last week of the season vs Rays and Twins and go 6-1. 11 or 12 seems 90% at this point. I'd say the next 4 games will be quite telling. If they go 1-3 in Minnesota, the #10 pick is absolutely within reach.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 02:18 PM) I really don't think that is enough, it may get us to .500. Nice defensive upgrade at C, but likely no offensive upgrade at all, and a heavy white sox likelihood of a historically bad offensive season from Wieters. Moreland projects as worse than what we're getting from Morneau now. Hoping to keep a .780 OPS from DH? Likely it declines in age 31 season. Fowler - True upgrade, but decline risk in age 31 season. Add to that likely sophomore difficulties from Anderson and an almost certain decline from Melky, and that's the same team we have now: One that relies on average players to be above average and above average players to be extraordinary. You do realize majority of the DH at-bats this year were given to guys like Avi and Sands before Morneau arrived correct? I don't know what the Sox have gotten out of the DH spot this year but my guess is somewhere around an OPS of 700. Moreland is at 785 this year and 765 career so that's a considerable upgrade. Fowler is a huge upgrade from Jackson/Shuck and Wieters is probably a wash but defensive upgrade. Why is it a sure thing that Anderson slumps and Melky regresses while Abreu, Eaton, and Frazier don't improve? I think that's a league average offense on paper and that's all the Sox need to be a playoff contender with their pitching.

QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 02:06 PM) So the play is to pseudo compete for the next few years until anything of value has been sapped of its worth. That should work out well. We can ditch that pesky 1st round pick in 2017 as it wont be protected and get some 30ish NL player to take us to the promised land. When was the last time we had a winning record against our division again. I remember the typical formula to win a division is to actually beat divisional opponents. So whats the plan to address that. Sprinkle some dust on what we have and hope it gets better. Or run a few plan B's out there after the Plan A's sign elsewhere. Its simple. We dont have a plan. We just roll the dice and hope that one time we wind up with the correct amount of momentum, luck and regression from the rest of the pack. I wouldn't rule out a protected 1st round pick just yet. Still a lot of divisional games to play in September and 2 games in Philly.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 01:37 PM) This part stands out to me. The white sox are nowhere near a great team. What is your plan to get them there? To be a great team they would likely need a top 5 total payroll. To be a good team next year I have already suggested signing Fowler, Moreland, Wieters, and a reliever. Also move Shields to mop up/middle relief to make room for Fulmer in the rotation. Hopefully Burdi comes up next season and pitches well from the onset combined with the healthy return of Putnam/Petricka and signing of one free agent the bullpen should be much improved. I don't think any of those moves are far fetched. Fowler - CF Eaton - RF Abreu - 1B Frazier - 3B Melky - LF Moreland - DH Lawrie/Saladino - 2B Wieters - C Anderson - SS Sale, Q, Rodon, Gonzalez, Fulmer

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 01:17 PM) Not really, your contention is they will be highest payroll when they have to keep their cheap talent, replying to my comment asking if we really think the reason cubs are a playoff contender is Jason Heyward and Jon Lester. They are 35 million of that salary, remove them and they are 13th in league. I say that, because they decided to splurge to make sure they were over the top. But their team could easily be playing Soler in OF and developing. They have an infield of rizzo, bryant, russel, baez and zobrist, did they NEED zobrist? No, but it's nice to have. All of the "acquire young talent moves" put them in a position to be a playoff team regardless. They had payroll to push them over top. If the sox got 5 years of playoff teams but couldn't afford the players before FA and needed to sell them, i'd feel in much better position than holding onto players, paying for average 30+ vets, failing, trying to sell them, getting little back because they are old, be in 4th place. The goal is to acquire as much talent as possible. The white sox have a good amount. How will they get what they need to compete with the top 10 teams in league? FA Trades Draft Draft is slow. FA is expensive. Trades we don't have minor league talent to acquire top talent. This is why people advocate for selling. If it turns out that we are going to get a 200 mill budget, then I say GO FOR IT. But we know we aren't, as seen by: Matt Latos Austin Jackson Jimmy Rollins Instead of Dexter Fowler We were great though letting the market "come to us" The Cubs are already top 5 in total payroll. Remove Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, Fowler and Lackey from their team (free agents the Sox couldn't afford to sign with the exception of Fowler) and yes they are still a good team but no where near a great team.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:58 PM) You are talking about sustaining an annual playoff team, not becoming one. isn't that what we are discussing here? building a playoff team that can be sustained over a 4-5 year stretch?

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:47 PM) So like the last few years when we just stand pat at the deadline? We can play that game again next year too. sure, but until we do I'm holding off on criticism re: trading Q and Sale

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:41 PM) Lawrie, Frazier and Melky are free agents and will walk away with the Sox receiving little to no compensation. Sale and Q have one less season of control, diminishing their trade value. Free agent options are extremely limited this season, which raises the value of all MLB level assets with very few options on the open market. This is the optimum season for a rebuild given market factors. Conversely, this is going to be a very difficult offseason to add to a team given the constrained market. Then if you are out of the race next July, trade them then. Problem solved. If you are in the race then good, that means the team is playing well.

It's interesting that all teams within the top 15 in total payroll aside from LAA are playoff contenders this year while only 2 teams in the bottom 15 are contenders. Payroll matters. Reason why I wish there was a hard cap in MLB.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:30 PM) The Cubs have 10 players with 2+ WAR seasons. Three of them were free agents, two were draft picks (both top 10), and the remaining five were acquired via trade. Why can't we take the Cubs' path? Even with potential downturns in attendance, we have enough fixed income to support a $90M+ payroll and could definitely be players in the epic 2018/19 free agent class. see post #91

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:16 PM) Do we feel the cubs are that much better because of Jason Heyward or Jon Lester? Even without them they'd be a great team, they have players like Soler being benched to play them. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/ Already #5 in total payroll and will be cracking the top 3 within the next couple years as guys like Bryant, Hendricks, Russell, etc. hit arbitration and if they plan on keeping their ace pitcher after next year. Yes it does make a difference.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:20 PM) The Cubs didn't start their rebuilding until 2012, they were simply a bad team "going for it" in 2010 & 2011. Their rebuild took three years to complete. The same applies to the Astros, who started in 2011 and took four years to complete. These are your comps for the White Sox, especially if we sell our cost-controlled talent. I hate the idea of throwing away three or four seasons as much as the next guy, but I hate the idea of being stuck in MLB hell another 10 years even more so. But again what's the big rush? Why not go for it again next year and move those guys after next year if it doesn't work out?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:16 PM) There are a whole lot of people who seem to believe that the Sox can take the Cubs path. IMO, they are wrong. The Indians are a much better comparison because of financial limitations. Despite their success in 2013, their "rebuild" really started back in 2009 and is just now coming to fruition. They have the potential to be a perennial playoff contender for the next 3-4 years. I still see no problem with waiting until after next season to consider a Sale or Q trade. What's the big rush? With Frazier, Lawrie, Melky, and Gonzalez all set to hit the free agent market after next season that would be the appropriate time to trade Sale and/or Q in hopes of competing again by 2019/2020.