beck72

QUOTE(AddisonStSox @ Dec 21, 2005 -> 08:11 PM) I think you might be in the minority. Have you seen the market for starting pitching this off-season? Have you seen what quality pitchers are getting? Have you seen what bad pitchers are getting? It's insane. Chalk it up to Burnett's contract, the Sox proving you win championships with pitching and defense, or whatever else you want, but pitching...especially young, cheap, effective pitching...you are going to have to pay for it. Look no further than a trade completed yesterday for Christ's sake. If Adam Eaton and a bullpen arm are worth an organization's number one prospect--HANDS DOWN--an MLB-ready young arm, and another prospect or two, why are you telling me the Sox can't ask, or can't expect an organization's number one prospect in return. If you trade Garland to a West Coast team, his value also increases as he has been known to want to sign on the west coast when he hits free agency. Put it all together. Kenny should expect a number one prospect in return for a guy that has finally put it all together and found himself amongst the best in baseball last year. Garland was a f***ing all-star. I don't care if he is in his walk year. You find a team that will pay for a healthy, effective, cheap #2 starter. Period. I'm just not buying it. What I'm saying is this--we don't know what the market is for Garland. Yet I can see [based on the asking demands of many, ie "KW should get X or no deal"] what the reaction will be if / when Garland is dealt----'KW got taken', 'he sucks', etc etc. I can hear the b****ing and moaning already. IMO, KW should be given the benefit of the doubt that he got the best deal possible, given what was available. If the sox want pitching prospects [which they should] few teams will be willing to offer the best prospect they have that's close to the majors, plus another top prospect for Jon. A top position player prospect for Jon is different. [ala Reed for Garcia]. The sox could probably get a top position player more easily than young arms, as some players are locked into a position [say SS with Furcal just signed] Pitching is different. Pitching prospects can try to fill one of 11 or 12 spots for a team. And most teams need 15 guys through out the yr. All teams want cheap, top quality young pitching--even the Yankees. That's why I could see the sox getting at most 2 pitchers near ready for the bigs [or one MLB arm now and someone for AAA] and a position player prospect. IIRC, the Mulder/ Hudson deals had close to this. Though Mulder and Hudson had much greater success than Jon had at the time of trade, the outregeous market alone for pitching could dictate the sox getting similar deals [though by the same token, the luxury of having cheap young arms to replace the huge contracts could negate the recent "mark-up" for pitching]

QUOTE(Rowand44 @ Dec 21, 2005 -> 07:59 PM) No Hudson deal, that deal was horrendous for the A's. You're thinking of just the Mulder deal. Even though the players involved had bad seasons, the package for Hudson was about the same as Mulder [a top high level prospect, a MLB ready player, and a top prospect a few yrs away]

QUOTE(Chisoxfn @ Dec 21, 2005 -> 07:48 PM) No, they aren't unrealistic. This isn't a #3 or #4 pitcher, this is a guy that teams would be paying #1/#2 money next year and that on many teams last season he would have been a #1 or #2 and I think you can make a case that he was our best pither over the full season last year (Buehrle had that large stretch where he was struggling and Contreras had that amazing 2nd half, but was mediocre to poor in the 1st half). We give up a 26 year old whose entering his prime, we get some damn good talent in return. No exceptions. Your deal for Broxton, Jackson and Ebert was about right IMO. It's a damn good deal. Just most people were expecting and talking about a deal like Broxton and Billingsley/ Guzman and others. If the sox want to "strike it rich" they'll have to accept A level prospects, not all guys who can start in AAA or make the sox 25 man roster. Some combination of prospects should be expected OTOH, a lot of people are expecting a Mulder /Hudson deal as well. Those two had more success than Jon had before they were traded.

QUOTE(Chisoxfn @ Dec 21, 2005 -> 06:55 PM) Elbert, Broxton, Jackson would be a very good deal. Elbert ranks somewhere near Gio in terms of a prospect. They both were in the SAL last year (well Gio got promoted eventually) and both have high K numbers. I think Elbert has a better build, but both are potential front of the rotation guys. That's along the lines of a deal I think the sox could expect. A solid contributor in Broxton very soon for the sox, and 2 good arms but with question marks [Ebert's youth and Jackson's inconsistency].

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Dec 21, 2005 -> 05:33 PM) I'm calling BS. If Arizona was able to get a five-tool, potential superstar in Chris Young for a pitcher who has been league average for the past two years, and who carries a big contract -- then we NEED to land either Billingsley or Guzman. If we don't get those two, it better be one helluva package that includes both Miller, Jackson, Broxton, and possibly another prospect. If given the choice between Billingsley and Guzman, I think I'd take Billingsley, just because we're going to need a cheap starter besides B-Mac in the next year or two. I'm also slightly worried about Guzman's 3/1 K/BB ratio (almost 130 K's); but that's me also doing a bit of nit-picking, as he was only 20 last year in AA. If a team doesn't want to give KW a knock-your-socks-off type deal right now, wait till the trade deadline. Because, I'm pretty sure Garland would be the TOP commodity at the deadline. Gosh, I'm so hoping for a Kazmir-for-Zambrano type, lopsided deal. The sox are seemingly intent on trading a proven, durable #3/ #4 type SP with one year left on his contract yet most everyone wants LA's top SP prospect [potentially a #1, #2 SP] or top positional prospect, along with a bunch of other prospects like a few #3 type SP or stud relievers? Am I the only one who thinks the board asking price is a bit too unrealistic?! The Dodgers won't do it and few other teams will trade their top minor league pitching prospects, as those arms will be close to helping in the bigs very soon. Seeing how the sox need young arms [and the reports are that's what's being asked for Garland, it's imortant to see what the sox can realistically expect in return If the sox could get 2 solid #3 type SP prospects and a prospect position player, that would be a good deal IMO. BTW- the sox got Vazquez for Young and cash relief in terms of Duque's and Viz's contracts [close to $7 mill] and the cash thrown in. As far as hoping for a Kazmir-Zambrano deal, most GM's aren't smoking crack.

QUOTE(nitetrain8601 @ Dec 21, 2005 -> 04:00 PM) Well then, we will ship Garland elsewhere. You make it sound like the only guys worth anything in the Dodgers system are Guzman and Billingsley. About the only team that can fit the sox request for two top pitching prospects is the Dodgers. the sox can and probably will make a deal that doesn't involve those two guys.

QUOTE(fathom @ Dec 21, 2005 -> 03:49 PM) If the Sox trade Garland to the Dodgers, and don't get either Billingsley or Guzman included in the deal, then that's a bad trade. Billingsley is the Dodgers version of Bmac for the sox last yr. Not going in any deal.

QUOTE(AddisonStSox @ Dec 21, 2005 -> 03:44 PM) I'm sticking to my guns: Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton/Edwin Jackson ...a deal surrounging two of those three players. Billingsley won't be traded by LA. Broxton maybe. But I'm going with two guys: * I think any deal will have to include LHP Greg Miller. A guy with his control and stuff can pitch in the majors for 10-15 yrs, from the bullpen or the rotation. *Justin Orenduff [a BMac type guy with control and good stuff; someone who may not be a #1 type SP, but with solid numbers wherever he's been

QUOTE(kdhargo @ Dec 20, 2005 -> 12:58 PM) Yeah, some combination of Chad Billingsley, Greg Miller and Joel Guzman in return for Garland would look nice. Billingsley looks like an untouchable, much like BMac is for the sox. Another pitcher to go along with Miller, like Justin Orenduff would probably be what the sox could expect in return for Garland.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Dec 19, 2005 -> 07:26 PM) Yes Beane has held onto people (Tejada), but he's also traded people (Mulder and Hudson), and that Mulder trade will probably make them a very good team for several years too. My point is I don't think KW will deal Garland just to deal him. He has to get fair value for him, meaning high quality minor leaguers. If he could swing a Mulder type deal great, sign me up. If it's a Hudson type deal, maybe I'd stick with the draft picks. But KW doesn't have to deal Garland before the yr or during. Esp. with few teams seemingly willing or able to offer top notch, higher minor league pitching prospects in exchange.

the other board is reporting a 3 yr $15 mill deal

terms?

QUOTE(heirdog @ Dec 19, 2005 -> 06:37 PM) The risk-benefit analysis suggests that we trade him now or get the draft picks. I think with BMac looking ready to go and the Vazquez deal, along with the fact that signing Garland looks remote, we get the best package for him now. A team has to offer KW a "best package" deal first. KW shouldn't just settle for any players thrown his way. Esp. as he offers fair value in his trades [even overpaying in some deals]. KW knows that holding onto Jon for the entire 2006 yr would help the sox chances of repeating--even if it didn't help the sox long term. But the sox don't have to trade Jon if no deals are out there that help the sox. Billy Beane has done it in Oak. holding onto guys in their walk yrs.

QUOTE(SSH2005 @ Dec 19, 2005 -> 06:33 PM) I disagree. Teams would value a full season of Garland more than a half season of him. He has more value now than at the deadline, especially with the currently insane market for free agent pitchers. Garland will be traded before the season starts. I'm not debating which would net more players--offseason or midseason trades. There's room to argue for both. What I'm saying is KW can wait out trading Jon until he gets "fair value"--whatever he thinks that value is. If KW doesn't think he's getting what he should for Jon, he could go into 2006 w/ Jon on the sox.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Dec 19, 2005 -> 06:13 PM) Why not get fair value for Garland instead of just dumping him because "we have too many pitchers." If we're not getting a great deal for Garland we could use BMac out of the pen as the long man and go with an absolutely studly starting rotation. I'd rather hold onto Garland and either move him mid-season or take the draft picks than move him for a trade I don't feel we get the better of. I think that's what KW will wait for. He has no reason to trade Garland to start the yr [the sox payroll won't be too overbudget with the addition of Vazquez, thanks to subtracting Viz and Duque]. I'm sure he's sifting through the offers and won't settle for less than what Jon is worth. One other thing to think about--the same teams wanting Jon now probably will be the same ones who'll want him at the trade deadline. About the only difference might be if one of those teams has an injury and are desperate for a quality SP.

QUOTE(retro1983hat @ Dec 18, 2005 -> 02:38 PM) I got mine taken at the Algonquin store yesterday. The trophy was and hour and half late. I still waited until 5. When I left though, there were still 200 people in line. Extremely cool. And the Sox PR people are very accomodating. They let you take as many pictures with as many different cameras as you want. My daughter and I were some of the last people in that line. They stayed open until 7 and added another day in ALgonquin this fri. from 10-5. Kudos to all the US Cell and Sox personnel there

QUOTE(forrestg @ Dec 19, 2005 -> 12:54 AM) I was reading an article logjam in infield Ken Rosenthall. Might be Izturis odd man out in the infield. Imagine he's from venezuala a switch hitting, gold glover an the la Dodgers need pitching. Garland wants to go west. Garland for Izturis and maybe a few pitching prospects. He's recovering from season ending surgery by the famous dr. jobe. Gets caught as much as he steals and strike/bb about 2/1. Or every 10th ab. I wouldn't know how KW thinks... Izturis would be an expensive UTL man, making $3.1 mill this yr and $4.15 in '07. The sox seem set with Mack and Ozuna for the IF. Better to just stick with the dodgers prospects

QUOTE(JimH @ Dec 18, 2005 -> 03:29 PM) I agree, the Dodgers might be a good match. They've been busy getting all their position players handled and now might turn their attention to Garland. Coletti has the green light to spend some money and turn them around. I could see a healthy Greg Miller help the sox this yr in some capacity, even though he'd start in AA. A prospect like him and a guy like Broxton who could compete for a job in the sox pen this spring wouldn't be a bad trade for Jon.

QUOTE(SSH2005 @ Dec 18, 2005 -> 12:08 PM) Lohse will get more than $2 million from some team if the Twins non-tender him. The market for pitching is insane. That's why I said if the sox traded jon, Lohse might be worth the extra salary as he could also start. Yet he'd probably get a nice offer from another team. Yet there could be other guys like Lohse [5th starter types who could be better suited for the bullpen in the long role/ short relief] that may be better and cheaper options. I like trying Tracey in that role. Yet he'd be hard pressed to duplicate Vizcaino's numbers.

Don't know if this was posted back on the 15th. On page 2 Scot Miller says the sox and Twins still are showing serious interest in Blalock. http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/9099247

I'd like the sox to take a chance on a guy like Lohse for the long man/ 7th SP spot [could be the 6th SP if they traded Jon]. He's a guy who had much better splits in 1-3 innings than the 4-6, with much fewer K's and more BB's as he went deeper into games. Seems destined for the bullpen. [last yr, .275/.317/.417 in innings 1-3 and .319/.367/.495 in 4-6--he also had similar splits for yrs 2002-2004]. Lohse also lost control as the game went on [inns 1-3, had 20 bb's in 341 ab's, but had 41 bb's and in 313 ab's in inns 4-6. For 02-04, for inns. 1-3 had 74 bb's and 189 k's in 1110 ab's vs inns. 4-6 72 bb's and only 113 k's in 996 ab's]] Yet with his age 27, and contract, $2+ mill,] he'd be an expensive long man/ spot starter. A good insurance policy should the sox trade Jon before '06 though, where they could take on extra salary from that spot.

At first glance, I definitely thought Joe B, or someone like DaVanon who can play all 3 OF spots in order to rest POds, Anderson and Dye. Yet Willie is a good insurance policy in case Iguchi goes down. I don't know if Mack or Ozuna could handle 2b full time. If they could [or least until the sox could make a deadline trade for a replacement, then bye bye Willie. My guess is it's an OFer. And Joe B does have value as a 4th Ofer, pinch hit HR threat and solid d around the OF

QUOTE(GreatScott82 @ Dec 17, 2005 -> 12:21 PM) But then you have to look at Vazquez playoffs vs Garlands in the playoffs statistics. Vazquez got bombed when he was in NY. Garland was awesome in the playoffs. And if Vazquez will be the guy left out come playoff time for the rotation is McCarthy ready to step his game up in the playoffs? I'm sure Kenny is considering all this- not just the regular season. I like the fact that he's thinking further than 2006, but is trading Garland for pitching prospects help us anytime soon? Probably not. If KW trades Garland i hope it will be for an excellent reliever or a center fielder and some pitching prospects. So far Houston, Texas, and Baltamore have called KW that we know of in regards to Jon G. I hope he waits until the complete best offer is on table. I also hope he waits until Contreras and AJ P are signed to deals. Add LAdodgers to the list of callers as well. With the talk about the asking price for Garland two pitching prospects [the only published reports of what the sox may be looking for in a trade, not our personal wish lists], one would have to be a top tier SP prospect almost ready for the bigs [start in AAA, ala Bmac this yr] who could take over in case one of the 5 got hurt. The other could be a lefty starter, who could start in AA [and help the sox at least in the pen sometime this yr] That scenario makes the most sense for a few reasons; 1] the sox are close to being maxed out payroll wise [KW likes to have some cushion going into the yr so a deadline deal could be made]. A young pitcher in the minors who could step into the rotation solves that. 2] the sox need to have some payroll flexibility to re-sign AJ and Jose. 3] a AA lefty SP prospect could always help this yr in the bullpen. Esp. later in the yr when the sox would really need someone to step up and provide the bullpen with a little push [as they get tired arms] 4] Few teams are trading elite relievers. Most are overpaying for mediocre ones. I'd rather have a long man in the bullpen like a journey man or a young guy like Sean Tracey filling in 5] the sox don't need an ace lefty in the pen [they have Cotts]. they just need a LOGGY.

QUOTE(rowand's rowdies @ Dec 17, 2005 -> 05:45 AM) i dont know why the sox would want to trade for pitching prospects. we dont give them a chance really ever. jenks doesnt count bc he was always major league ready, he just had mental problems. cotts was put in the bullpen immediatly. instead of giving one of our minor league amrs a chance, everyone (including KW i think) wants to plug in a major league reliever via FA or trade. if we trade garland for any minor league prospects i will be pissed. we use our prospects to trade for mlb players, which is fine and it has worked out for us so far. im not bashing the sox's way of going about things, im just making the point. i agree with it to a degree, although i would like to see a prospect get a chance to take the 4th and 5th OF spot and last bullpen spot. Guy's like Cotts, Adkins, BMac and Jenks don't count as 'being given a chance' by the sox? If the sox have good pitchers in the farm system, they'll be given a chance to throw in the bigs. Right now, the sox have only a few spots open for rookies to compete. That's a good thing. But once guys start making money, the sox'll need to have rookies who can step in and take their place. Not to mention having good arms in the upper levels who can step in case of injury. Trading Jon for prospects makes sense--business and baseball wise

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Dec 16, 2005 -> 11:25 AM) Because Blalock's got the far better contract, that's probably the way the Sox will head if they want a 3rd baseman. Very important, as the sox want to lock up both their pitchers and position players. With Blalock locked up for yrs at a reasonable contract, is young and has upside, makes a lot of sense