TheFutureIsNear
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Posts posted by TheFutureIsNear
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31 minutes ago, bmags said:
Well, if you aren't talking about this as a costcutting measure, the reason you would trade Gio is it is clear you will not re-sign him. He has been the rare sox to enter FA, and the other was Rodon, and Rodon is gone (after the detour).
So you could also just say "we are going to trade Giolito away because we won't re-sign him, get value back, and sign a different pitcher we can get for the next 3-4 years".
If you are just completely capped, you probably aren't trading Giolito it's true.
In theory what you are saying makes perfect sense…I just have a very hard time imagining a world where the Sox are competent in free agency and are going to sign a quality SP for $50+M.
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10 minutes ago, bmags said:
Well Clevinger sucked last year but pitched way less innings and got 1 year 12 million, more than Giolito will make.
Zach Eflin was way more competent but still more of a #4, except it has been 3 years since he has thrown as many innings as Giolito last year. He got 3 years 40.
I'm sure many-a team are looking at a pitcher who had some bad luck despite the worse stuff and is still a rare workhorse (in modern times) who has quite a bit higher ceiling. And if you are a competitive team, $10mil is cheap.
So yes I think he has good value to trade, but not a top 100 guy type return
If the Sox weren’t looking to compete this year it would make total sense, but we all know that’s not the case. Again, who’s replacing Giolito in the rotation? If we are talking about bad SP’s getting $10+M, why would you willingly create that hole in the rotation for yourself?
It’s not that I’m completely against the idea of trading Gio in general, I just think it will be easier to fill the OF/2B holes than it will to be find another SP that we could possibly be relying on to be a top 3 guy in our rotation come playoff time (who knows if Kopech/Clevinger will be good/available in Sept.)
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45 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:
Multiple pieces? How much value does Gio have after a poor season and only 1 year of control?
Even if we are able to get a LH OF’er for Gio is it going to be someone significantly better than someone like Benintendi or Conforto that we could just sign? Because whatever $ we save trading for an OF’er would then have to be spent on a SP to fill Gio’s rotation spot…which will probably be more expensive or a huge ? (Not that Lucas is a sure thing)
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13 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:
That’s because he’s not very valuable to anyone.. including us
IF (it’s a big if) the front office does their job and adds LH OF’ers I think it will actually be difficult to justify a roster spot for Sheets. It will most likely come down to 1 spot for Burger or Sheets. If the front office fails to add enough lefties to the lineup then I guess Sheets will make it by default, but I’d like to see Burger on the roster all year.
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6 minutes ago, tray said:
Will Montgomery be ready to play SS, 2nd, or 3rd base and hit at the Major league level in 2023 ?
Will Colas be ready to play the OF and hit at the major league level in 2023 ?
Even if they are not brought up to be in the starting line-up, can they at least be relied on as back-ups or platoon players ?
Will their respective performances at Spring Training provide enough additional information for Sox management to make those calls or do these prospects have more to prove at the Minor league level?
I’m all for being aggressive with prospects…but I don’t think Montgomery is even a thought for any part of ‘23. Maybe September best case scenario
Colas is a different story…yes, he should be factored heavily into 2023 plans. Hopefully he’s starting opening day.
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To adequately fill the OF spot it’s almost going to have to come via trade no? Are they going to spend another 12-15 mil on an OF’er and spend around $30 mil this off-season (assuming a couple of small/gamble signings)?
So the trade will have to be us giving up some at least pretty good prospects (the few we have) for a guy not making much $.
Or
We trade someone making decent $ on the 53 man roster. I know Gio is brought up a lot, but still doesn’t make sense to me to create another hole to fill 1 which includes Lynn. Yaz is negative value. Moncada is at an all time low in value, if he has any. And there isn’t much else to trade making $ that makes sense…other than in the bullpen with Graveman and Hendricks, which seem like the most likely candidates.
Obviously there have been a ton of ideas thrown around, but is there any kind of consensus on realistic options? The trade candidates for a LH hitting OF’er with pop that is also a good fielder seem to be few and far between.
And yes, I’m aware the Sox front office by no means HAVE to fill the spot adequately…just looking at best case scenario
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Thoughts on buying low on Jarred Kelenic? Seems like he should be available with the Mariners in win now mode and rumors pointing to them still looking to add another OF’er. Don’t know where the value lies in a Kelenic for Graveman deal lands, but I don’t hate the idea of gambling on a big upside LH OF’er without spending $.
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1 hour ago, maxjusttyped said:
Thomas would be an awesome get, but I'd imagine they could do a lot better than that package. Fangraphs had him as the 21st best prospect when he lost eligibility mid-season. The performance in the majors was bad, but there was still some encouraging stuff in his profile from a plate discipline & batted ball standpoint.
The minors BABIP is slightly scary. I know a lot of good prospects have high BABIP in the minors, but always a little scary to see a guy without huge power benefitting from a BABIP above .370 consistently. Not saying he can’t still be really good…was just looking at his stats at that popped out at me.
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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:
Gonzales is legit bad and Winker is another DH. I don’t understand how that trade would help us compete next year. Just move Hendricks for prospects if you’re looking to rebuild.
Gonzales is a reasonably priced 4th/5th starter than can throw 180+ innings of 4ish ERA ball…exactly what we need
And Winker is a lefty with a career OPS of .800+. If we have Robert and Colas in the other 2 OF spots we can live with a below average LF.
And a match needed young depth OF’er with upside sweetens the deal .
I swear some of you are expecting miracles to happen just so you can b**** and complain when they don’t. Just trying to throw out realistic ideas.
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How much (if any) excess value would a Hendricks for Winker and Golazes trade have in our favor? I think it makes sense for both sides in terms of need and reallocating $. But I do think Hendricks is easily the most valuable player in the deal so I would hope to get 1 of several near MLB ready OF prospects the Mariners have as well. Thoughts?
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Definitely scary for Luis
But if Yoan is playing baseball instead of making music videos or whatever he usually does in the off-season I can’t see it as a bad thing
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23 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:
I am not sure what exactly you expect here. The guy is literally amongst the worst defensive 3B in baseball right now. Out of all of the players who played as many inning as he did at 3rd last year, his defensive zone rating was 4th worst. His outs above average was 4th worst. Slots 1-3 were held by people with 3 or 4 times as many innings in the field to make that many mistakes. His range was 5th worst in baseball.
Like we aren't talking about a below average 3b here. We are talking about literally one of the worst defenders in baseball. Even if he "gets better" he is still going to be awful over there. It's not like he is bad and has the tools that could make him better. With his tools, the gap between his ability and his ceiling isn't big enough to overcome his horribleness at 3rd. Even with his bat, because of his defense, he was barely a positive fWAR player. That's pretty impressive with a .760 OPS.
Add in the fact that he’s slow as dirt and you’ve got a ceiling of a mediocre 1B(maybe?)/DH type. I’d have absolutely no problem with Burger being involved in a trade this off-season…if he has much value at all.
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Just now, Bob Sacamano said:
SSS = small sample size. It’s in there.
Ahh, had no idea what that meant when I read it lol
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19 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:
Actually, this is very calculated.
I know Burger was a SSS, but Sheets+Burger as a strict platoon outperformed Vaughn last year in OPS and SLG.
Burger outperformed Vaughn vs LHP by a lot actually.
Sheets vs RHP
.250/.301/.736
Vaughn vs RHP
.260/.309/.753
Vaughn vs LHP
.307/.363/.744
Burger vs LHP
.326/.388/1.039(!!!!)
So Sheets and Vaughn are similar vs RHP and Burger is a huge short side advantage.
You really typed that whole thing out without using the words sample size?? Jake Burger had 49 PA’s against lefties last year.
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14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:
He's a rental ,1 year and is a terrible OF. You want to give up a prospect for a rental ? They should done buying rentals. It fixes nothing. The rebuild is over . 1 year of Winker solves what exactly for the future of this franchise ?
If you haven't noticed Soxtalk is made up of many different people. There is not a hive or collective mentality hence many different opinions .
Again, no one is more for a bigger/better move than me…but what’s the realistic option?
And I said buy low. I wouldn’t be interested in a deal that involves any prospect we care about.
Not to mention that 1 year fits pretty well in my opinion. Give this core 1 more year to prove they can play healthy and up to potential. If that doesn’t work out we are going to be at a serious cross roads and probably looking to unload anyway.
1 last time, signing Nimmo should be #1 plan A and a move for a guy like Winker should be in the plan F range…but we all know that’s about where this franchise operates so I’m just trying to be realistic about a 1/2 decent option
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35 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:
If this is true (Winker) we'll see more action in the Fire Hahn thread. He's got only this year as a free agent on his contract. He's worth nothing. And Kyle Lewis please no. Why trade prospects for these guys when you can just claim Stone Garrett with keep the prospects.
The idea that a left handed hitter with a career WRC+ of 126 and .836 OPS is “worth nothing” is ridiculous.
Soxtalk: Our front office sucks, they don’t do anything!
Also Soxtalk on any available player that’s going to make less than $20mil a year: That player sucks, don’t bring him here!
SHOULD this organization just spend some $ and solve our problem with Nimmo? Of course. Will they? Of course not. At some point beggars can’t be choosers and we have to be realistic. If it’s possible to buy low on Jesse Winker it’s definitely not a bad realistic option.
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23 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:
Winker certinly fits the dead cat bounce guy you can get for fringe prospects profile. Hahn is so F'ing predictable.
If you’re disappointed at just the idea of Winker for fringe prospects, you should really prepare yourself for the actual outcome. What realistic options are you honestly expecting for a LH corner OF’er this off season?
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Buying low on Winker from the Mariners after they acquired another OF’er doesn’t seem like the worst plan….
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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
It’s a ton of money when we may only have $15M or so in payroll space to work with.
Just don’t tender Engel and it’s essentially a $1.7M addition to the payroll.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not standing on the table saying we need to get Tapia…just saying that he’s a better LH corner OF option than we have. Obviously a better addition should be sought out, but I don’t hate the idea of him as a 4th OF’er.
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10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
He’s due $4M+ in arbitration…100% not worth that price.
I don’t think that’s bad for a solid 4th of’er. We need 1 and Engel is due 2.3M. Could there be a better option? Maybe. Would like Tapia to be better in CF, but don’t know if he’d kill us in short spurts. Of course with Robert we may need more than a short spurt so who knows.
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48 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:
And now you can have Tapia for free basically.
I see…I figured he’d be available, but guess there wasn’t as much of a trade market as I expected.
I don’t love Tapia or think he’d be a great get. But given what we have to work with, he’s not a bad lefty platoon option with some speed/athleticism, a decent glove and not a total black hole at the plate. Would def take a shot and hope to make a bigger/better move later and Tapia is our 4th OF’er opening day.
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Trade Crochet and Sheets for Brandon Lowe
Trade Graveman for Raimel Tapia
Sign Cueto or Smyly
Start Colas day 1
SS- Anderson3B- Yoan
CF- Robert
DH- Eloy
LF- Colas
1B- Vaughn
2B- Lowe
C- Yaz/Seby(upgrade needed)
RF- Tapia
Bench- Burger, Luery, Romy or Mendick, Engel or Haseley(upgrade needed)
Cease
Lynn
Gio
Kopech
Cueto/Smyly
MartinDiekman
Lambert
Kelly
Bummer
Lopez
Hendricks
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Start Colas and Sosa to start the season and sign a vet SP that can throw 150+ innings of ERA not much above 4 or better.
Explore any and all trade options for Grandal/Pollack/Moncada
Easier said than done…but figure out 1 last move to put the team over the top- a LH hitter with pop that can fill a corner OF spot with at least above average D.
Easy option is sign Nimmo, but we all know how that will likely go.
Conforto is probably worth the gamble, but is a risk and no guarantee in we can sign him.
Trade options are few and far between, but have to explore all options including trading guys like Crochet, Burger, Ramos and Cespedes. Not saying those guys will net us a star, but some combo should get a quality starter.
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1 hour ago, pcq said:
My guess is that Grandal is a PUP candidate. They might need a veteran catcher at this point. I don't think Joe and DBo got an invite for next year.
No way we are that lucky. With a few months to rest Yaz will be at spring training to collect that paycheck. We have to hope he can catch part time vs righties and the shift ban turns him back into a somewhat useful hitter. Or perhaps there’s a trade out there for an equally bad contract, but kinda doubt that…
Your 2023 Off-Season Plan
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
Gio, Hendriks and Jose Rodriguez for Gavin Lux and James Outman.
Sign Quintana and Conforto
SS- Anderson
2B- Lux
CF- Robert
DH- Eloy
RF- Conforto/Colas
1B- Vaughn
C- Yaz
3B- Yoan
LF- Outman/Colas
Cease, Lynn, Kopech, Q, Clevinger
Martin, Diekman, Kelly, Lambert, Bummer, Graveman, Lopez