TheFutureIsNear
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Posts posted by TheFutureIsNear
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14 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:
Edwin Diaz is the most comparable reliever in free agency this year to Liam and he just signed for 5/102 with multiple opt outs in the deal. Wilson Contreras is a much more proven player than Jansen and he signed for less money than Diaz. Teams place a premium on elite relievers that is illogical if you value them on a $/WAR basis, but we see time & time again it's how the market operates.
I think the Sox would be able to do better than Jansen if he gets traded, even if you wouldn't think so just going off strict WAR projections.
I don’t think Liam is comparable to what Díaz did last year. If you want to argue that Díaz may be more volatile, sure, but if Díaz is at his best again it’s not all that close between him and Liam.
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8 minutes ago, hi8is said:
Huh?
A stud defensive catcher than can hit 20+ HR’s doesn’t project to 4 WAR over a 500 AB season? And I’m referencing Fangraphs WAR. I think Travis d’Araund is a great comp who was good for 3.9 WAR in 426 AB’s and hit .268/.319/.472 with 18 HR’s
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11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:
If Liam gets traded his 2024 option becomes guaranteed. So whoever gets Hendriks gets him at 2/29M
Ok didn’t realize that. But unless I am missing something we are still talking about a trade for a C that will give us 4 WAR (conservatively) per season for a total of 8/9 mil over 2 years for a closer that will give you 2 WAR per year for 29 mil over 2 years…and the closer also has a questionable elbow. I don’t see the fair value 1 for 1 personally, but sure, I’d absolutely do the deal.
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18 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:
Wait, if we want to trade Liam for Jansen, we actually have to give up two prospects to make it happen? What??
2 years of extreme surplus value of a cheap all-star level catcher for 1 year of Liam seems fair to you? I could (hopefully) be wrong, but that doesn’t seem right to me. Not like Kelly is much of a prospect anyway…
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Trade Hendriks, Jose Rodriguez and Jared Kelly for Danny Jansen- Blue Jays trade 1 of their C’s to solidify their bullpen with a proven closer and add prospects to gear up for a mid-season trade to put them over the top. Obviously Jansen fits perfectly for the Sox and the trade saves 10mil
Trade Grandal for Tommy LaStella- Giants have Joey Bart but no clear backup C or clear cut DH option. LaStella was a bust for them and has no path for playing time after recent signings. Grandal acts as a mentor for Bart and gets semi-regular AB’s at C/DH/1B. Sox save 7 mil and get a LH 2B platoon/utility guy while unloading Grandal after the Jansen tradeTrade Burger for a young, cost controlled RP with a live arm and options- I think it will be hard for Burger to ever see playing time here as RH 1B/DH and more options in the pen will help after trading Hendriks.With saved 17mil from trades- Sign Michael Fulmer and Wil Myers. Fulmer fills a bullpen gap as a solid MRP and Myers is RH backup to both corner OF spots (possible platoon with Colas) to ensure that Eloy doesn’t see the field and also backups up 1B and DH.TABenintendiRobertEloyColasJansenVaughnYoanSosa/LaStellaBench- Myers, Luery, SebySP-Cease, Lynn, Gio, Kopech, ClevingerCL- LopezSetup- Graveman/BummerMRP- Fulmer, Kelly, Diekman, Lambert/Burger TradeLong- Avila-
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I think this is the year Robert is healthy and puts it all together.
I don’t believe Granda is as bad at hitting a baseball as he was last year. But in order for him to have any value to us he needs to catch on a pretty regular basis…I have very little confidence he can still do that.
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4 minutes ago, bmags said:
We definitely need more all stars. We don’t need to pay for a .700 ops 2nd baseman with average d.
I get it…but who are we getting that is going to be a difference making 2B? I’m all for exploring a Lowe trade with TB, but that might be about the only option and it’s very unlikely.
Like it or not, if this team is going anywhere carried by all-stars it’s going to be TA, Robert, and Eloy (with Benintendi, Vaughn, and Yoan also playing well). -
12 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:
Sosa did not close to being a major leaguer in any facet last year. Romy, despite being awful himself, at least looked the part. Hope we are not forced into having to rely on Sosa though.
It was 33 PA’s…he’s about to be 23 and more than proved himself in the upper minors. What’s the point in developing prospects if you’re not going to play them?
I understand Sosa is flawed and I’m not saying I’m super confident in him, but we also don’t need an all-star at 2B. Give me above average D and a .700+ OPS and I’m happy…especially if it’s from a dirt cheap rookie contract.
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Hamilton/Reyes/Payton/Haseley…could be worse to choose from for 4th OF’er I suppose. Won’t be surprised if at least 3 are on the mlb roster at some point throughout season
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2 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:
I guess it depends on what the FOs plan is for the rest of the offseason and how they plan on addressing other needs.
If they can attach a couple 10-20 prospects to Grandal and have someone eat half the money, it might be OK if you used that 9m to help defray costs for a good player and it could be better than having to send Liam away to make the payroll work. It's tough to say in the abstract without knowing the different options and cost/benefit.
For sure it’s a crappy situation no matter what. And I’m not saying I’m confident that he will be cut…just saying that I wouldn’t rule it out. It’s going to all come down to his health and the FO (as inept as they can be) definitely know more than us. If they don’t think Grandal can be counted on to catch at least 85 games it’s going to be real hard to justify carrying him on the roster.
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4 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:
How many times do you think JR is gonna be "cool" with a 18m write-off?
Grandal is most likely going to get paid $18mil no matter what (unless there’s a bad contract for bad contract trade our there). So what’s the point of keeping him and why do you think Jerry would care? Pride? Ego? Spite? I also don’t think there are enough big contracts in Sox history to act like there’s any kind of precedent on cutting a big contract with 1 year left.
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5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:
Sheets will play the OF at some point in 2023 IMO.
There's also the possibility that Colas sucks.
Assuming that Colas actually starts the season and we have 2 LH corner OF’ers I don’t see why he’d be needed for anything other than an odd handful of innings. In fact, if we get the 4th OF’er we need I think it could be tough for Sheets to even make the 26.
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Of course gotta wait on $, but this is a solid move to fill a big hole. Nothing special, but we certainly can’t complain about a solid move at this point
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This is an honest question because I don’t know the answer…but is there a logical explanation to why Benintendi suddenly lost all power last year and you wouldn’t expect it to return? I see he broke his hamate bone late in the season with the Yankees, but that wouldn’t explain the entire season. But it would also be a little odd to assume that a 28 year suddenly lost all power without some sort of very serious injury that occurred. He’s played in 5 full mlb seasons and last year was the 1st time his SLG % dipped below .424 and he averaged 16.5 HR’s the other 4 seasons as well. Unless I’m missing something, I’m not sure why expecting him to revert back to the norm is so crazy.
And with Gallo I personally don’t think expecting him to revert back to ‘17-‘19 form is all that realistic. I think it would be more like hope he gets back to his 2021 form where he managed a .451 SLG % as an all or nothing power hitter. If he was a true 3 outcome player with a high OBP I could see the appeal, but he’s really not that.
Obviously just SLG % isn’t everything and the 20+ more HR’s Gallo will likely hit certainly mean something. Just seems to me people have an idea of Joey Gallo in their heads that only existed for a small amount of time 3+ years ago.
I won’t be upset by any means if Gallo is signed, but also won’t be excited about it.
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7 hours ago, maxjusttyped said:
Robert & Cease aren't going anywhere, and I don't think there's enough left in the org to land Varsho. Just eyeballing it myself, he looks like a top ~50 trade value guy in baseball right now.
McCarthy would be a good get even if it's not super exciting. Alek Thomas would be great but I'm not sure if Arizona would seriously be looking to deal him.
Yeah I think Arizona is definitely the way to go for a smart trade. Don’t know if Varsho will be in our prospect price range, but McCarthy makes a ton of sense. Obviously wouldn’t be a big splash, but Arizona also has 2 ‘19 draft picks in AAA that are LH Of’ers that have been great in the minors- Dominic Fletcher and Dominic Canzone. Almost makes too much sense for Hahn to make something happen.
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1 hour ago, oldsox said:
Your double negatives aside, racism is not the reason. Agism would be closer to the truth. Old guys often don't like the forced and possibly rehearsed celebrations. That's all. Skin color not particularly relevant, IMO. Maybe it's your prism that is fucked up.
Nothing about this post explains why TA gets hate while there is complete silence on Lance and Liam. Please explain because Lance and Liam celebrate more and arguably more demonstratively.
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9 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:
Liam acts like a clown after every single save, yet not a single thread on that. What is the difference?
Lance Lynn too. Imagine if TA grabbed his nuts and threw around a few obscenities after a hr? This board would want him in jail.
Im here for all the fun, personality, and passion players want to bring to the field. But the double standard is indeed crazy and it’s hard not to assume the reason isn’t obvious.
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54 minutes ago, reiks12 said:
.200, .235, .375 with average to above average defense. Soxtalk will say hes a bust but will ignore the fact he has 0 minor league seasoning like all of our other prospects.
I’m not saying it equates to AA or anything, but I don’t think you can discount his time in Japan either. At worst I think flying across the world to play in a foreign country at least built some maturity. I don’t doubt there will be some growing plans like anyone else, but I wouldn’t consider Colas a typical raw prospect without experience.
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An uninspiring Gallo signing is looking more and more likely.
The only logical scenario I see is trade for a Dbacks OF’er, but there seems to be a decent market there and that rarely bodes well for us.
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9 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:
How does William Contreras throw? With bigger bases and a shorter route, more stealing in 2023.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/william-contreras-661388?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb
Reports and stats don’t seem to like his defense at all. I’ve seen him projected as a future DH. But the Brewers did turn Omar Narvarez into a solid defensive catcher so possible they feel like they can work with Contreras as well.
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Trade Crochett and Popeye for Jake McCarthy, Dominic Canzone and Kevin Ginkel
Trade Hendriks and Romy for Gleyber Torres, Estevan Florial and Albert AbreuTrade Sheets for a cost controlled middle reliever…should be a decent amount of possibilities so won’t guess on who, but something about Sheets seems to fit with Tampa to me.Gleyber fills the 2B hole. Would need 2 of Colas/McCarthy/Canzone/Florial to hit well enough to lock down the corners OF spots, something I’d be comfortable betting on. In a perfect world(service time probably still plays a role) it’s Colas and McCarthy as the starters, Florial as the 4th OF’er, and Canzone takes over for Sheets as the bench 1B/LF/DH/LH pinch hitter.Bullpen obviously takes a hit losing Hendriks, but I still believe Lopez/Graveman/Bummer is a good enough 8th/9th inning trio. Relying on some combo of Grinkel/Diekman/Kelly/Abreu/Lambert/Avila/Sheets trade to be solid in the middle innings is where it would get a little dicey…can also sign some vets to minor league deals to add to our chances.SS-TA3B-MoncadaCF-RobertDH-EloyRF-Colas1B-Vaughn2B-TorresC- YazLF-McCarthyBench- Florial, Canzone, Luery, SebyI think the lineup, balance, depth(burger, sosa, and Perez still in AAA in case of injury) and defense are all much improved.Cease, Lynn, Gio, Kopech, Clevinger still remains a possibility for a very strong rotation with some health luck. Martin stays in AAA for depth -
Looking at the Dbacks again, they are actually a very interesting trade partner. Along with Thomas, Carroll, Varsho and McCarthy already in the majors they also have a pair of interesting 25 year old lefty OF’ers in AAA that they drafted in 2019.
Dominic Fletcher- Plus defender in CF who has hit .296/.368/.467 with 32 hrs in 290 games from A-AAA in 2.5 years. Drafted 75th overall out of Arkansas
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/dbacks/dominic-fletcher-666150
Dominic Canzone- Sounds like an average LF only(has also played 1B), but his bat is the big selling point. Advancing through every level of the minors in 2.5 years he’s hit .297/.360/.533 with 44 HR’s across 231 games. 8th round pick out of Ohio St
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/dbacks/dominic-canzone-686527
Not sure what a potential deal would look like, but it makes sense for the Dbacks to trade the glut of OF depth they have for something else. With TA, Montgomery, and Sosa ahead of him (with Romy as more depth) I wonder what Dbacks OF’er we could get for a guy like Popeye?-
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15 minutes ago, fathom said:
I guarantee they view Leury as the 4th outfielder
Entirely possible….I can see a Leury, Romy, Sheets and Seby bench. Which is very underwhelming, especially when the AAA depth is also awful aside from maybe Sosa and Burger.
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Reyes/Payton/Haseley competition for 4th OF’er? Sounds like everyone will be the loser
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Your 2023 Off-Season Plan
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
Nope. I’m aware that site sucks. I already explained my stance. Cheap catcher with a lot of surplus value for a soon to be 34 year old closer with a sketchy elbow making 29 mil over the next 2 years. I’m waiting for a convincing counter argument.
It also probably comes down to how you value the prospects. I don’t care where they rank in our system because we have no one, Popeye and Kelly aren’t valuable pieces to give up in my option.