L. Ron Paultard

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Aug 8, 2015 -> 07:20 PM) Um... For such an untouchable mega-guru that Don Cooper is portrayed as his starters going back to Javy Vazquez through Gavid Floyd, Quintana, Shark, Danks, certainly seem to lose it mechanically/mentally as soon as those runners reach base The pitching coach can't teach talent, velocity or natural (late) movement. But its basic job description to help the pitcher maintain focus, clean up the throwing motion and make sure the release point discrepancy doesn't tip the pitch off to the opposing hitter. Notice any problems, at all? Maybe it's just me seeing things.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 8, 2015 -> 07:17 PM) Samardzija has 1 strikeout through 4 innings. He simply cannot win when he's not striking people out. It's not his game. He's been down on strikeouts all year and the teams that don't chase stuff beat him. The Royals aren't chasing stuff so they just need to wait for him to miss a few pitches or for something to drop in and suddenly they'll score. They know that. Ya think this is why Oakland gave him up for a song? Maybe they knew that all those nasty sliders and splitters have slowly been shredding his right elbow, so it's a matter of time before his stuff is in decline. This is where Fangraphs is hopelessly behind the curve. Samardja stuff is nothing like I remember it was in the 1st half of the season with the Cubs during interleague starts (even if nominal average velocity hasn't dropped off by much. ) His stuff is just flat and he is overthrowing the four-seamer in order to compensate --- which only hurts his control and/or tips his secondary offerings to the opposing hitters.

So a Don Cooper starter who is cruising..... is suddenly having all sorts of problems pitching out of the stretch??? Under pennant race pressure late in the season? Shocking, LOL. Who knew that a whiny fat-man with a fragile ego like whom who snaps at any semi-difficult questions... would somehow infect his pitching staff. Then again, Coop is untouchable. Did 2005 really happen?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 8, 2015 -> 02:35 PM) So since I last looked the Iraq war was described as "less than ideal" and we got an argument for why the war with Iran has already started. Yup, that's about what I expected. That's a helluva "those who do not learn from history" post right there. That's nothing if not, ahem, "substance-intensive" there, Balta. Snarky "gotcha!" Twitterism burnnnn ouchie. As I said, this is why politics is such pits at its general best, and the Iran thing? Hail Allah the Mercifully Magnanimous, it's partisan shibboleths and dog-whistles non-stop. And yes, compared to my peers I am only *moderately* liberal.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Aug 8, 2015 -> 02:08 PM) You were advocating explicit economic harm against China in order to get them to continue sanctions on Iran. LOL, I was what? OK, nuance and internets don't mix I get that. Might want to re-read. China was a tertiary/tangential point anyway since Balta was so worried about the sanctions regime I mentioned China sorta in passing. But yeah, China has a huge vulnerability, and all US has to do is to *remind* them, however indirectly, of that. Hell Communist rule will be formally over before 2020 anyway, that's a promise. Likewise, TPP is critical to other Asian nations, you're talking such sums of money involved as to render Iran's (future) lucrative contracts for individual firms, seem like peanuts in comparison. Again, that's the essence of superpower leverage Politics is the "art of the possible", if nothing else. Funny thing is, as recently as late 2013 even Obama admin knew that. But somehow the script changes since then, and now it's suddenly "we can't go to nookewlahr war with China/Russia/Iran/North Korea over Israel" style hysteria over MSM.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Aug 8, 2015 -> 01:49 PM) I'm pretty skeptical that we'd start a trade war with China over Iran sanctions. What trade war?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 8, 2015 -> 01:08 PM) You realize that when we did things like sign trade agreements with China and granted them permanent "Most favored nation" status, the ability to place sanctions on China basically was given up? Do you really think it's worth it to Americans to lose their apple computers and iphones to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear armed country? Do you really think the American business world would put up with losing tens of billions of dollars in imports in order to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear armed country? The answer to that is probably found in the trade agreements we've signed with them. And one more to highlight. Yup, I've never seen any case in the Middle East where I've said "We're going to be stuck in a decade long disaster" and someone else said oh that's false it'll be much easier. Wow you guys just leap from one (intellectually disingenuous) TP to the next with ease of a jet-powered Bolshoi ballerina; it's quite a sight to behold. I'll be gone by Monday tho will try to answer your questions b4 then Who said anything about totally sanctioning China, btw? Deep down neither China nor Russia really want Mullahs with a huge nuclear and missile stockpile, either, it's just that for political reason Beijing doesn't want to hand the US an easy win in Vienna negotiations..... Just gently "nudge" them a certain way and let the natural historic and economic course take place. Incidentally, the Communist rule is not the future, everyone knows it... lest they think slightly cheaper Iranian oil is some panacea, a strong US admin should delicately, um, disabuse the Chicoms of that notion. Of course Obama is the antithesis of a strong leader in his very bone marrow, so good luck with any kind credible posturing vis-a-vis China or Teheran or anyone else. We wouldn't want to be "dictating" to others matters vital to our national security and strategic interests, would we? Using superpower levers -- however soft -- would be "unfair", afterall. (Likewise, China can hack all our state, military, corporate secrets-- cue a strong-worded State Department letter of protest filed once in a great while in response, wow that oughta show them who's boss! Lest we not digress lol....) Really, Iraq? Granted it's before my time, but the comparison fails on every level. Should even bother listing? Actually, both Iraq wars were spectacularly bloodless from military history standpoint. Yes, the subsequent occupation was less than ideal but that's neither here nor there re: bombing Iranian installations. Our intelligence penetration into Iran is orders of magnitude better, too in 2015...... Btw, even Israeli PM Ariel Sharon is well known to privately told Bush that Iran, rather than Iraq was the real danger. Multiply by 10 today. Even if you view Iraq as kind of a disaster -- I do not -- it's pure logical fallacy to effectively say "well, it didn't go as smoothly as we wanted, now let's just roll over for the Twelver Mullahs, yay world peace!" (the same Twelvers who can't even stop chanting "Death to Big Satan" long enough for the ink to dry on the one-sided Vienna capitulation papers....) You are vastly exaggerating American business interest in Iran... all while badly under-estimating the multi-TRILLION dollar hit, a truly STRATEGIC humiliation that the deal to make Ayatollahs the regional superpower in the most energy-rich & powder-keg unstable region on earth... represents. It's not just the direct long-term costs of such mind-boggling American defeat. It's the optics & symbolism of the whole thing. A giant win for the BRICS. Even the Gulf Arabs are, ahem, making other plans as we speak. If you think Saudis were pissed when we let Morsi take reigns in Egypt, that is nothing compared to the profound sense of betrayal and American impotence that is reverberating throughout the Sunni world. Those guys are desperate. And so are the Israelis. The war is coming, and nuclear dimensions only make it far more terrifying a prospect. In fact, Balta, I got another news for you: the war you so want to avoid is already here. For quite some time now. also I see your knowledge of the nuclear cycle & weaponization/minituarization is suspect. It's not just a matter of Iran "going underground to more intensely pursuing a weapon". It's not so simple. They almost went bankrupt for decades and still can't even master the Little Boy technology with all the cadre of foreign nuke experts from Russia, China, Pakistan, North Korea + many local engineers. cumulatively UNSC resolutions were having their intended effect, too. Circa 2013-2014 Ayatollahs were on their knees. Another year or two and the dam would have burst, I promise you. You think the populace ability to withstand hardship is limitless? It only may seem that way. Even the crazy Mullahs, IRGC bosses finally understood that as rial was crashing and embargoes tightening. Another hint: What do French Revolution, Russian Revolution, Arab Spring, etc all have in common? And now the brilliant brain-trust in the White House has given Ayatollahs a cool TRILLION dollars life-line (150 bill almost right away; then way more over 10-15 year term). Oh yah, such great anti-ISIS fighters the Mullahs are. Pardon me while I wipe away my tears of joyful gratitude. LOL, you're not familiar with the two-faced, triple-dealing nature of middle east/Islam are you, Balta? Little known secret of Teheran backing Al-Qaeda for years, same as "secular" Assad supplying/transiting them at will when it suited his needs.... But oh sure, now that the already hugely well-armed Hezbollah networks sprawled across 5 continents will get Billions with a 'B' cash infusion.... the global war on terror will surely be won. That is, right after the Ayatollahs, the various Basij, Quds Force and IRGC generals all magically "moderate". Why? Just because, just ask the White House. Yay-cakes! The 24-day thing? Of course it's a joke in every sense. But it's not only the uranium residue that needed to be inspected; computer sim and missile work, other illegal activities don't exactly leave half-life traces even if inspectors were to be allowed in. Which, again, they won't be so its moot. And on and on and so forth, we can do this all day long. It's truly an unprecedented disaster of a "deal". Even Chamberlain circa 1938 looks like Genghis Khan in comparison to the American/EU negotiators. Just surreal, hahaha And all for what? For some Obama "legacy", whatever the f*** that even means? I know they got their Mahdi, but it looks like you people have your own teflon Messiah at 1600 Penn Ave. edit: bad at spellery? Unpossible!

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 7, 2015 -> 08:18 PM) How is the IAEA not independent? The US DOE has tested whether you can fully scrub a room in 24 days and actually remove all traces of highly enriched uranium. You can't. That stuff is really hard to get rid of because it's extremely easy to detect a single particle of it. And that's on top of the ability to look for "large movements of heavy equipment" in the area. And if you don't think this deal is strict enough, I want to know what you'd do to increase pressure on Iran to make that happen...keeping in mind that no other country would go along with you because they consider this deal sufficient and the U.S. does not trade much with Iran. Basically...the U.S. was pushing for the strongest deal possible, to the point where they almost lost everyone else holding sanctions in the process. If the U.S. rejects this deal, the sanctions regime will crumble and Iran will know there is a high likelihood the U.S. is going to invade them in the near future. The U.S. will then have to race to launch attacks and an invasion before Iran can actually complete a crash course to build a weapon to defend themselves from the upcoming U.S. invasion. It's just about that simple. It's this deal or war with a country 2.5 times the population and 3.5 times the area of Iraq. Your choice. Abhor politics haha, but just couldn't just pass this one by. Balta, can I ask you a question: does it bother you on any level that literally EVERY single administration talking points you are parroting above.... is absolutely, 100% demonstrably wrong/false??? From the 24-days notice nonsense (it's actually closer 90 days w. the appeal process... plus severely restricted access in the first place renders the whole thing a giant joke) the false "negotiations capitulation or war" binary choice the need for 10 year land invasion ignorance of the Apocalyptic Twelver goals etc, etc, etc I don't know it's bizarre. A veritable tidal wave or orgy of stupid when it comes to this issue. Granted among my friends I am only moderately liberal so maybe I am not meant to "get" the collective visionary genius that is Alinsky-Soros-Valerie Jarrett axis... Seriously, Balta are you for real re: sanctions regime and supposed total lack of leverage on the part of the US? Really? Are you forgetting who is the freaking SUPER-POWER here? Hint: "Hey Brussels, so you desperately want that free-trade agreemen finally donet, huh? Permanent recession is a b**** I hear. Trillions at stake in the long-term, right? While we're on the subject, you really like NATO protecting your ass from Putin, esp. after the Ukraine thing? So maybe let's revisit our Iran deal thingie, mmmmkay? Anywhere, anytime inspections, total removal of uranium from Iranian soil, dismantle Fordow, Arak...no ICBM work.... the works. Mull it over" Rinse and repeat with TTP and our Asian friends. While at it, let China know that one more stock market snafu to the tune of trillions like that, and that place may not be so attractive for foreign investment. GDP slows below 5-6% and here comes the Tiananman Spring in earnest. Maybe a credit rating hit or 2, just to get the message across. Putin may not like it? He is kinda over a barrel and up a tree with the E. Ukraine mess + disastrous oil price trends. If ever there was a time to make him, um, "amenable" to a more strict Iranian deal, it's now. Then again, with genius like Wendy Sherman of North Korean fame... in charge of negotiations, I am surprised New York City hasn't been officially made a part of the new Persian Empire. Point is, there are a lot of tools, big and small, for a unmatched superpower to put the Mullahs back in their place and eventually facilitate the Persian uprising which is the only real way to ensure the end of their program. The humiliating surrender in Vienna, sadly isn't one of them. YKMV.

To be fair, it also probably helped that Saladino was a highlight reel machine over at 3B thus far and can run bases well suggesting good instincts plus, can play multiple def positions - while Davidson.. can't.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Aug 8, 2015 -> 11:03 AM) They may mean nothing to you but they do to the FO. How often do you see a player struggling at AAA getting called up???? Good teams will be patient w young players and stick with them longer. But teams like the White Sox w multiple holes will unfortunately have less patience. Why did Saladino playing SS in AAA get called up to play 3rd over Davidson who was playing 3rd??? Because Davidson is not yet even average offensively in AAA. Saladino will get this year and next ST to make this team at 2nd or even SS. His bat will not be good enough to play 3rd unless they get stuck like they are now. Look you can ignore history and reality all you want; it won't change the fact that raw numbers - whether they be HS, NCAA, Spring Training or even high minors..... are notoriously unreliable-bordering-on-worthless when it comes to actual prediction-projections. Certainly the conventional non-Sabermetric ones such as Batting-average, HR, FP which is what most fans parrot. Admittedly baseball does lend itself to rough quantification more than other sports, but that only tends to delude fans into having unrealistic expectations. Extremes and exceptions only reinforce the general rule. Sure it's nice if an 18 year old is crushing AA. Conversely, if a 28 year old is struggling in low-A ball that's probably not a "good thing". Duh. But in most cases, just going by numbers simply doesn't cut it. You ask, why did they promote the seemingly unspectacular Saladino over Davidson despite the fact that Rich Hahn has invested a lot of his talent eval credibility into the latter prospect? I think I've sorta answered that already. But in case that wasn't clear: because Davidson's slow, loopy, uncoordinated swing would get R-A-P-E-D by major league pitching. btw, pitchers aren't exactly immune to that, either. Dime a dozen Dylan Axelrod or Ehren Wasserman can at times do well in the minors, but in the majors they are a laughing stock.

PS. Barring some injury-related setbacks ala Avi Garcia last year..... 1000 PA or so is usually when you can start writing a prospect off if there is either no improvement at all, or a significant regression.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Aug 8, 2015 -> 08:01 AM) I agree he is struggling but I am not sure your reasoning is correct. He was not overwhelmed when he arrived because he immediately hit close to .300 for his first 8-10 games. Then he started struggling and now he is really overwhelmed. That may be a sign he has a major weakness and word gets out quickly. He was a .280 hitter for 3 years in AAA w very little power. it looks like Sanchez has the same game w a better glove. I think one will be the reserve inielder next year and the other will disappear. With all due respect, I don't think you or most people quite realize just how effin' HUGE it is a jump to the bigs in any sport, nevermind for a hitter in baseball who is always going to be vulnerable to the pitcher's whims due to the unique nature of the sport. hell Just learning how to be a professional under intense unforgiving media spotlights; how to pace yourself over a veritable marathon of a baseball season; how to travel, how to act off the field is something in and of itself. Then the league adjusts; as advance-scouting these days is ridiculously, well, advanced. So on. Yes, some guys hit it right out of the gate just based on sheer (unsustainable) effort and adrenaline rush. There is also small sample size-related statistical flukes to consider here. But for most, it's deer in the headlights time. I dont see a ton of baseball normally, but yes Saladino actually looked like a pro already in everything he did right off the get g - so it's easy to get fooled by it. Which was my point: T-Salad will inevitably struggle in situations like last night's in a pennant pressure. Sorry edit: again, for the last time, Saladino's numbers in AAA are almost as useless as Spring Training ones. Besides, HR are the least of my concerns when it comes to the 2-hole hitter. Not that he doesn't have any natural pop in his swing, mind you - just ask Michael Wacha or Chris Archer, lulz As for Carlos Sanchez, weirdly enough he may also stick around in the majors. Certainly much more likely than Matt Davidson, Tyler Flowers, Joe Borchard or Josh Fields types who usually make big-league pitchers absolutely salivate even before stepping into the batter's box .

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 7, 2015 -> 10:19 PM) Saladino was a mediocre hitter for most of his minor league career. I truly hope they don't think he's the long-term answer at 3B. Again, Fathom that's not how baseball or indeed most other sports work. Forget everything you know about minor leagues, collegiate stats, spring training numbers, etc. Very little translates to or correlates with, the bigs. (In fact, the bust rate of even high 1st rounders in baseball is downright LEGENDARY.) It's individual case eval. and hard-core scouting, every single time. It's tools - though not in the 5 conventional ways they are usually presented. Hand-eye coordination, spacial processing; early pitch recognition; impeccable innate sense of timing; and hand-quickness are by far the most important ones......while arm strength defensively for instance, is by far the least. No guarantees of course, but merely playing on odds. Watch some of Saladino's plays at 3B, a position he hasn't played much of, mind you...then watch his turning on 96 MPH high heat from Michael Wacha or the 98 MPH one from Archer the other day, another absolute bomb - and you'll know why Saladino will succeed where Beckham and countless others failed. Sure, dominating minors is much more preferable to being horrible in the minors ala Matt Davidson or Jarred Mitchells of this world, but some players simply choose to work on different things (rather than just feasting on BP quality crap in order to pad their ego stat-line.) Others still, are simply late-bloomers. Which could very well be the case with Saladino. Baseball history is littered with guys who hit 40-50 HR with like a FAPjillion of RBI on the farm .... who ended up an absolute embarrassment in the show. You'd be surprised. ..

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 7, 2015 -> 10:15 PM) Game was lost in the 8th. Saladino missed 2 hangers one he didn't swimg at, Abreu didn't swing at one and struck out on a pitch a foot outside. Saladino is a rookie who is literally overwhelmed right now at the plate. People forget just how much there is to learn first time around, against every new pitcher, in each different game situation, every new ballpark for young hitters. Enormous amounts, the big city lights, tv broadcast, is nothing like ever faced before. So screw-ups are expected. so yeah, T-Salad (see what I did there!) will be fine longer=term as his swing profile, temperament, and versatility are compatible with ML success. Temper expectations for now. OTOH, what's the excuse of Sox veterans like Anorexei, LaRoche, Garcia, Eaton, Cabrera, Flowers who been stealing money for most of the year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 7, 2015 -> 10:08 PM) Really? Even I'd PH for Flowers here. LOL, I'd PH for Tyler Flowers for the rest of his natural life. I mean how can someone who looks a. so clueless (for a catcher especially since they R supposed to have high IQ and pitch recognition by virtue of their position) b. so defeated c. so slow in his reaction time and batspeed d. so stiff in his stance e. so uncoordinated in his swing f. so uncharacteristically pull-happy wasn't Tyler Flowers K-Dub's crown jewel in the Javy Vazquez trade IIRC? Didn't he have an unusual natural power to opposite field, advance ability to draw walks and just general confident attitude? What the hell happened? RWS Roid withdrawal Syndrome doesn't explain for how pathetic he looks now. Part is definately the usual Sox coaching voodoo doing a number on his swing.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 7, 2015 -> 09:44 PM) Some bad body language there haha, "Bad Body Language" has been practically the White Sox motto since the Franco-Prussian War. to those who follow this sorry team, just based on numbers and optics, how on earth has Todd Steverson and Robin not get fired like in May or early June. Talk about textbook definition of "unprepared + deer in headlights" collective look Mercy!

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 7, 2015 -> 09:25 PM) Full speed straight ahead, even though the pitching staff is likely to have a lot of trouble next year if they're counting on Rodon/Danks/Johnson/Fulmer to team with Q and Sale. OK help me out here. I haven't seen much of the Sox last several years, but as a kid followed them closely (this board too. Is Fulmer legit? Tim Lincecum or glorified Danish? tnx

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 7, 2015 -> 09:07 PM) greg, from 2013-2015, Danks is 112th out of 120 in terms of qualified pitchers in ERA. In terms of xFIP, he's 117th out of 120. Translation = he's been awful Well ya. That's what happens when you take the 2008 version of Danks who touched 95-96 MPH in game #163 on ESPN radar gun.... and take away his fastball as well as his top armspeed on the change-up (read: take away its deception and diving action) Danks is likable to be sure, but as a maximum-effort delivery guy he was always going to get hurt. No doubt it. Baseball is not football, you can't go all-out on every pitch. Danks was always a thrower, never had pin-point control nor the deception that is needed for a crafty-lefty. Now he's starting to, hence his recent run of success, but even that's more to do with him suddenly trying harder to pump 92-93 MPH. Probably unsustainable long-term, but maybe enough to raise his trade value.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 7, 2015 -> 08:58 PM) He still massively sucks and his contract extensions is one of the worst deals in Sox history. You also have to remember that Don Cooper boys have this tendency of going from Zero-to-Meltdown in 3 seconds flat. As it were. In other words, post-2005 Sox starters don't like to a. feel any kind of expectations or real heat b. throw out of the stretch c. face opposing line-ups 3rd or 4th time thru From Javy Vazquez, to Pink Floyd, to Peavy, to Quintana, Danks, Samardjjjaaaa (to even gasp! the great unhittable Chris Sale at times see Trout game last year!) To pitch out of the stretch, you need to be stronger mentally and/or mechanically rather than just blow opposing hitters away with pure velocity or movement. And that's where actual coaching and preparation come into play. Or the lack thereof.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 7, 2015 -> 09:01 PM) Similar pitch calling to what AJP/Mauer used to do vs the Sox. You are not wrong there Fathom, haha. OTOH, the ultra-mega-hyper coaching geniuses on the SouthSide like to be so "cute" as to outsmart the conventional wisdom - and instead prefer to pump get me over fastball after fastball into the wheel-house of the likes of Ryan Rayburn, Delmon Young, Lorenzo Cain, Escobar, Wilson Betemit and wonder why the hell are so many 130 MPH rockets putting dents into LF wall over and over and over again. derr derpity McDerp basically

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 7, 2015 -> 08:32 PM) All you have to do is pitch him low and away and he won't do any harm. To be fair, that's like 95% of hitters under age 35. They want something straight, something to turn on, esp. in hitter's counts. As a pitcher, what you want is to do the exact opposite in order to disrupt their timing, get them off-balance and force to re-route hands. Incidentally ,that's why unlike Don Cooper's or Hawk's "pitch inside" old school BS,,,, "away-awayer-awayest, slow-slower-slowest" has always been such an effective approach, esp. against the dumber hitters, as well as against those batters who don't like to study advance scouting reports or to "think along" the opposing pitchers. And say what you will about the Sox as an organization historically, it has always been a. dumb as hell b. light on top-notch advance scouting. Salvador Perez pitch calling that seems to bedevil the Sox is merely common sense baseball 101 in practice.

dat Danks, doh

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Aug 5, 2015 -> 02:31 PM) LOL. I guess whatever players do in the minors is pointless then? In a word? Yes. Stats-mongering has always been one of baseball's charming quirks, but there has to be a some limit Look at virtually all other pro sports. From soccer to basketball. Noone in their right mind would use NCAA or NBADL numbers to make definitive projections. Scout the player, not the stats, to the best of your ability. Simple as that. This is why Tyler Saladino and Dustin Pedroia will have stellar careers in the bigs, while BP session monsters like Joe Borchard and Brooks Kieshniek are teh fails.