July 29, 20223 yr https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mlbs-expanded-postseason-changed-the-trade-deadline-and-maybe-not-for-the-better/ Quote What might be surprising are the teams that aren’t on that list — including the Cardinals, White Sox, Guardians, Red Sox and Giants, as well as the upstart Orioles. While some of those clubs have decent playoff odds in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, only Chicago (34 percent) and St. Louis (27 percent) are even 20 percent likely to make the division series, and they’re also the only members of that group with any kind of World Series odds whatsoever. (The White Sox sit at 2 percent; the Cardinals are at 1 percent.) Given the low probability that this season turns into a championship for those teams, it’s likely that any future talent traded away at the deadline will end up being for naught. This model dictates the Brewers are a coin flip (buy or stand pat), Padres and Rays are better stand pat candidates, Sox in the leaning seller category. All In (5): Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Atlanta & Mets. Slight buyers to stand pat (6): Blue Jays, Brewers, Padres, Rays, Twins & Mariners. Lean Sell to Sell (6): Phillies, Cardinals, White Sox, Guardians, Red Sox & Giants. Fire Sale (13): The Usual Suspects How our Doyle Number metric views the 2022 trade deadline Postseason odds (according to the FiveThirtyEight prediction model) and Doyle Numbers* for 2022 MLB buyers and sellers TEAM PO% WS% DOYLE TEAM PO% WS% DOYLE Dodgers >99% 26% 2.13 Red Sox 22% 1% 0.31 Yankees >99 21 2.04 Giants 22 1 0.22 Astros >99 13 1.84 Orioles 8 <1 0.10 Braves 98 9 1.70 Marlins 3 <1 0.06 Mets 99 8 1.66 D-backs 1 <1 0.01 Blue Jays 89 5 1.30 Rangers 1 <1 0.01 Brewers 83 3 1.02 Rockies <1 <1 0.01 Padres 83 2 0.90 Angels 1 <1 0.01 Rays 55 2 0.75 Cubs 1 <1 0.00 Twins 60 2 0.71 Reds <1 <1 0.00 Mariners 68 1 0.67 Tigers <1 <1 0.00 Phillies 54 2 0.57 Royals <1 <1 0.00 Cardinals 56 1 0.45 Pirates <1 <1 0.00 White Sox 61 2 0.44 Athletics <1 <1 0.00 Guardians 35 1 0.32 Nationals <1 <1 0.00 Edited July 29, 20223 yr by South Side Hit Men
July 29, 20223 yr Nate Silver doesn't believe in the Guardians much. Sox at 61% odds for playoffs. That seems high. They are also way wrong. There is no way the White Sox are sellers. They may not buy anything of substance but they are not sellers. Edited July 29, 20223 yr by wegner
July 29, 20223 yr 6 minutes ago, wegner said: Nate Silver doesn't believe in the Guardians much. Sox at 61% odds for playoffs. That seems high. They are also way wrong. There is no way the White Sox are sellers. They may not buy anything of substance but they are not sellers. This algorithm is saying that if they aren’t sellers then they are making a mistake. I am quite familiar with the white Sox management making mistakes.
July 29, 20223 yr 6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: This algorithm is saying that if they aren’t sellers then they are making a mistake. I am quite familiar with the white Sox management making mistakes. Nate Silver is a Tigers fan....be very wary of statisticians with an agenda....his is to weaken our beloved Sox.
July 29, 20223 yr Author 8 minutes ago, wegner said: Nate Silver is a Tigers fan....be very wary of statisticians with an agenda....his is to weaken our beloved Sox. Balta and you are correct, sir(s). Detroit Tigers pitcher Doyle Alexander hangs his head after giving up a home run in 1987. The trade in which the Tigers acquired him has become notorious, and he has unwittingly given his name to a new trade metric. 2015: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/did-your-team-blow-it-at-the-trade-deadline/ Five months later, they traded Montas for Todd Frazier. Six months after that, traded Tatis Jr. for Shields. Cell Jerry, always Cell Jerry and Eddie are back after getting $250K savings by trading International Bonus Money slots. Jerry misses the good old days and wants that option restored.
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