Democracy on the march in the middle east?

[southsider2k5]

IRUT -- U.S. and French officials Tuesday called for an immediate Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, lending the strongest international support yet to thousands of anti-Syria demonstrators in Beirut who have seized the attention of the Middle East with their calls for "freedom, sovereignty, independence."

 

With protests showing few signs of waning, Beirut has emerged as the showcase for a region roiling with political change and uncertainty.

 

Two years after President Bush set out to remake Iraq "as a dramatic and inspiring example for other nations in the region," there are growing hopes of reform and fears of instability across the Middle East. War, demands for democracy and the gradual transfer of power from an aging generation of leaders are combining to alter the political picture from Jerusalem to Riyadh to Kabul.

 

"It is significant what is happening," said Tom Carothers, a democracy expert at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Of the various political changes in the last two months, Beirut may be the most interesting because it involves civic actions--it is an actual movement."

 

A day after the resignation of Lebanon's Syrian-backed prime minister, Omar Karami, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier raised the diplomatic pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad, holding a special meeting regarding Lebanon on the sidelines of a Palestinian reform conference in London.

 

With pressure building, Assad told Time magazine in an interview published online Tuesday that Syria plans to completely withdraw from Lebanon in "a few months" but provided no further details. Syria has had troops in Lebanon since 1976, during the Lebanese civil war.

 

Assad's timeline would not appear to satisfy U.S. and French officials who issued a forceful statement calling for the "full and immediate withdrawal" of all Syrian military and intelligence forces from Lebanon, free and fair Lebanese elections and a "full, credible and transparent investigation" into the car bombing that killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on Feb. 14. His assassination triggered the street protests in Beirut, with Lebanese widely accusing Syria of orchestrating the blast.

 

In a joint news conference after their talks, Rice said the U.S. and France will discuss providing outside observers for elections and suggested the two had very preliminary discussions about the potential deployment of a multinational force for Lebanon if the Syrians withdraw.

 

Iraq and its neighbors

 

Despite the drama in Lebanon, nowhere is the change in the Middle East more dramatic and costly than Iraq, where the invasion of March 2003 and the violence that followed have claimed tens of thousands of Iraqi lives while producing the first freely elected government in half a century. In the weeks since landmark national elections Jan. 30, the country has remained unstable; a suicide bomber Monday killed at least 125 people in the deadliest single attack by insurgents since the fall of Saddam Hussein.

 

Iraq's newest power brokers, most of them Shiites who were repressed under Hussein's regime, are struggling to forge consensus on a new government that will rule the country until elections in November. At the same time, they are staking out their evolving relationship with neighboring Iran. That is particularly sensitive to the United States as it pressures Iran to dismantle a suspected nuclear weapons program.

 

On the other side of Iraq, pressure is building on Assad by the day. Syria has tightly limited its modest internal reform movement. In a rare flash of civil unrest last year, riots sparked by a soccer brawl in March between Kurds and police spread in northeastern Syria and killed at least 25 people.

 

Now, Lebanese protesters are forcing Assad--who inherited the presidency and an estimated 16,000 troops in Lebanon from his late father in 2000--into a thorny decision: retreat and risk a major display of weakness or try to weather a storm.

 

Israel, Palestinian territories

 

No less important than Iraq in the politics of the Middle East is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, where hopes of an end to violence have been fueled by major policy and people changes on both sides.

 

The death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in November cleared the way for the election of President Mahmoud Abbas, who promptly entered into negotiations with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. A tentative cease-fire announced Feb. 8 was undermined by a suicide bombing Friday that killed five Israelis in Tel Aviv. The Palestinian militant organization Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility but blamed it on a rogue cell.

 

After more than four years of fighting, the fragile truce between Israel and the Palestinians probably would not have occurred without Sharon's decision to withdraw Jewish settlements from the Gaza Strip, beginning in July. Sharon's pullout plan--reversing decades of settlement expansion he helped design--gave Abbas much-needed credibility.

 

Saudi Arabia and Egypt

 

In comparison with the Palestinian and Iraqi elections, Saudi Arabia's first experiment with nationwide voting, which began in stages Feb. 10, is paltry: Only men can cast ballots, and half of the seats on the local councils will be appointed by the government. While skeptics have dismissed the race as a ploy to distract from the kingdom's otherwise laggard pace on liberalization and human rights, candidates and voters are taking the election seriously.

 

Just weeks after the first Saudi voters went to the polls, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced over the weekend that he will seek to permit the first contested presidential election in Egypt's history, scheduled for September.

 

The announcement came amid intense international and domestic pressure on the 76-year-old former air force colonel to make good on promised reforms and accept an open contest after 24 years of unchallenged power. Some critics caution that Mubarak's appetite for a robust election may entail no more enthusiasm than it will take to appease U.S. allies who find it increasingly difficult to provide nearly $2 billion in annual aid without signs of reform.

 

Nevertheless, in acceding to open elections, Egypt becomes the latest in a string of nations where there was little hint of democracy on the horizon several years ago.

 

Though the Bush administration often points to Afghanistan and Iraq as catalysts in broader regional change, analysts say it may be too soon to know what impact those early and messy exercises in democracy will have on the region.

 

"There are several other critical variables in what is happening in Iraq," said David Newton, a former U.S. envoy to Iraq, now at the Middle East Institute. "Can they put together a functioning government? Can they write a constitution? ... Then you might be able to say it gave a powerful push to the region."

 

Change in the Middle East

 

The past few months have been a time of remarkable changes in the Middle East, from elections in Iraq and peace overtures between Israel and the Palestinians to hints of democracy in countries long ruled by autocratic regimes (area map).

 

LEBANON

 

(State flag)

 

Population: 3.8 million

 

Head of state: President Emile Lahoud

 

In power since: 1998

 

Recent developments: The Feb. 14

 

assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri sparked widespread protests against the Syrian-backed government, culminating in the resignation Monday of Prime Minister Omar Karami and his Cabinet. Protesters have called for Lahoud to follow suit.

 

ISRAEL

 

(State flag)

 

Population: 6.2 million

 

Head of state: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon

 

In power since: 2001

 

Recent developments: The parliament and Cabinet have

 

approved Sharon's plan to evacuate all Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip and four in the West Bank. The move, coupled with new Palestinian leadership, has rekindled hopes for a lasting peace agreement.

 

PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY

 

(State flag)

 

Population: 3.6 million

 

(in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, not including Israeli settlers)

 

Head of state: President Mahmoud Abbas

 

In power since: 2005

 

Recent developments: After his election Abbas quickly helped negotiate a truce with Israel while working to get militant groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad to abide by its terms. A Friday suicide bombing at a Tel Aviv nightclub has tested resolve on all sides.

 

IRAQ

 

(State flag)

 

Population: 25.4 million

 

Head of state: Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi

 

In power since: 2004

 

Recent developments: January's national elections produced a clear victory for the Shiite majority after decades of Sunni rule.

 

The newly elected National Assembly, made up of Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, meets in the coming weeks to establish a new government.

 

SAUDI ARABIA

 

(State flag)

 

Population: 25.8 million

 

Head of state: Crown Prince Abdullah

 

In power since: 1997

 

Recent developments: Last month the kingdom held its first nationwide elections for local councils, although women were excluded from voting.

 

JORDAN

 

(State flag)

 

Population: 5.6 million

 

Head of state: King Abdullah II

 

In power since: 1999

 

Recent developments: Abdullah attended the summit in Egypt that led to the Israeli-Palestinian truce. Jordan recently returned its ambassador to Israel after a four-year absence.

 

EGYPT

 

(State flag)

 

Population: 76.1 million

 

Head of state: President Hosni Mubarak

 

In power since: 1981

 

Recent developments: The nation has been dominated by the ruling National Democratic Party since 1978. But last week Mubarak unexpectedly announced plans to hold the country's first direct multi-party presidential election in its history.

 

SYRIA

 

(State flag)

 

Population: 18 million

 

Head of state: President Bashar Assad

 

In power since: 2000

 

Recent developments: Syria faces renewed pressure from the U.S. and other countries to withdraw its 16,000 troops from neighboring Lebanon, where it has had troops stationed since 1976.

 

Sources: CIA World Factbook, U.S. State Department, Tribune reports, ESRI

 

Adam Zoll, Marty Bach and Rick Tuma/Chicago Tribune

[KipWellsFan]

Good read. Seems like there are some very real positive movements in the region. However these can be interpreted in many ways. Including the War in Iraq is doing a good job encouraging the spread of democracy all over the middle east, or that democracy can be achieved through political pressures rather than war.

 

[Rex Kickass]

A lot of these movements (particularly Saudi Arabia and Lebanon) have been in the works for quite some time - they have their own pressure cookers building. Iraq may have been a tipping point in some, not all, of these events.

 

Israel/Palestine has little to do with freedom on the march and more to do with a dead Yasser Arafat and an intifada that has begun to exhaust itself over time.

 

Lebanon may be a little more jumbled. Conservative columnist David Brooks said that Lebanon was a direct result of Iraq elections quoting dissident leader Walid Jumbalatt as talking about how the election made him see the start of a new Arab world.

 

Here's another quote from the same Jumbalatt two months ago.

 

“We are all happy when U.S. soldiers are killed [in Iraq] week in and week out. The killing of U.S. soldiers in Iraq is legitimate and obligatory.”

 

The tipping point here seems to be the assassination of the former Lebanese president who wasn't as cozy with Damascus and the government's seeming intent to not really get to the bottom of the situation.

 

William Saletan had a great column in Slate today talking about the very same thing. Although Bush deserves some credit for some of the baby steps these countries take towards democracy, inside pressures building for years have a lot more to do with these moments than Iraq's election.

 

And sometimes reform movements suffer backlashes too. Just look at Iran.

[southsider2k5]

I found it interesting that both of you had to point out that it wasn't the US that was responsible for most of this, when that wasn't the crux of the article or in anything I said.

[Rex Kickass]

I found it interesting that both of you had to point out that it wasn't the US that was responsible for most of this, when that wasn't the crux of the article or in anything I said.

 

Probably your "on the march" title clouded my thinking there (That's a Bush line, ya know.) That and I've read a half dozen pieces regarding the same thing in the last few days.

 

I'm excited about the prospect of a more stable and democratic Lebanon. Maybe then Beirut will once again become the "Paris of the Mid-East."

[mreye]

I found it interesting that both of you had to point out that it wasn't the US that was responsible for most of this, when that wasn't the crux of the article or in anything I said.

Hmmmmmm

[Controlled Chaos]

Probably your "on the march" title clouded my thinking there (That's a Bush line, ya know.) That and I've read a half dozen pieces regarding the same thing in the last few days.

 

I'm excited about the prospect of a more stable and democratic Lebanon. Maybe then Beirut will once again become the "Paris of the Mid-East."

 

 

The only thing that clouds your thinking is your utter disdain for anything that may shine a postive light on this administration.

 

This article doesn't mention Walib Jumblatt...but you bring him up just to state that a conservative columnist used his quotes. You dont mention them cause they don't fit your right bashing. So you mention a quote given by Jumblatt to the Al-Sharq Al-Awsat on February 12, 2004, not two months ago. So basically your whole reason for even posting this garbage is to say that a conservative used a quote from a guy who hates America. Thanks for your insight.

 

 

What it was that Walib said just a few weeks ago as opposed to last year was this

 

"It's strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq," explains Jumblatt. "I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world." Jumblatt says this spark of democratic revolt is spreading. "The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it."

 

The point here isn't that a conservative columnist used this quote from Jumblatt even though Jumblatt has been very anti american in the past. It is that a man as radical and anti american as Jumblatt now sees some good in what is happening in the arab world and attributes that good to America.

 

Clouded thoughts from a title??? I don't think so. You're not excited about peace or stabilization in the mideast. You'd only be for peace if Bush didn't get any credit for the process. If he was going to get some credit...you'd just assume they continue on as is. Clouded thoughts.....yeah I'd say so.

[Rex Kickass]

The only thing that clouds your thinking is your utter disdain for anything that may shine a postive light on this administration.

 

This article doesn't mention Walib Jumblatt...but you bring him up just to state that a conservative columnist used his quotes. You dont mention them cause they don't fit your right bashing.  So you mention a quote given by Jumblatt to the Al-Sharq Al-Awsat on February 12, 2004, not two months ago. So basically your whole reason for even posting this garbage is to say that a conservative used a quote from a guy who hates America. Thanks for your insight.

What it was that Walib said just a few weeks ago as opposed to last year was this 

 

"It's strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq," explains Jumblatt. "I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world." Jumblatt says this spark of democratic revolt is spreading. "The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it."

 

The point here isn't that a conservative columnist used this quote from Jumblatt even though Jumblatt has been very anti american in the past.  It is that a man as radical and anti american as Jumblatt now sees some good in what is happening in the arab world and attributes that good to America.

 

Clouded thoughts from a title???  I don't think so.  You're not excited about peace or stabilization in the mideast.  You'd only be for peace if Bush didn't get any credit for the process.  If he was going to get some credit...you'd just assume they continue on as is.  Clouded thoughts.....yeah I'd say so.

 

 

Maybe you missed this.

 

Although Bush deserves some credit for some of the baby steps these countries take towards democracy

[KipWellsFan]

Saudis now pressuring Lebanon to get out too

 

Saudi officials told Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday that he must soon begin fully withdrawing troops from Lebanon or face strains in Saudi-Syrian ties, a Saudi official said.

 

Assad said he would study the possibility of carrying out a partial withdrawal before an Arab summit scheduled March 23 in Algeria.

[southsider2k5]

Saudis now pressuring Lebanon to get out too

 

No surprise there... you know the Bush admin has been pushing everyone to say that to Syria.