Historically when players are on the last year of their contracts they have phenominal years, then sign huge contracts and return to normal. I'm betting Contreras wins at least 17 games and Crede hits over .300 if he is healthy.

Joe Crede is not in the last year of his contract this year any more than he was last year. He has several more years of arbitration eligibility before he can become a FA.

Joe Crede is not in the last year of his contract this year any more than he was last year.  He has several more years of arbitration eligibility before he can become a FA.

So you're saying .265 with postseason heroics this year, then?

While I generally agree iwth what you said, there are examples of guys like Edgar Renteria, Kevin Millwood (the 04 version) and a few otehrs who have struggled playing for the pressure of a contract. usually though, its coupled with injury issues (as is the case with the two guys I mentioned and Jamal Lewis in football)

Joe Crede is not in the last year of his contract this year any more than he was last year.  He has several more years of arbitration eligibility before he can become a FA.

 

I did not know this.

Contract year or not I expect Jose to have a dominant season! IMO he truly figured it all out. Crede on the other hand- I expect the same:

.250-.260 avg ~20 hrs, 60 rbis, solid defense and clutch hitting.

Contract year or not I expect Jose to have a dominant season! IMO he truly figured it all out. Crede on the other hand- I expect the same:

.250-.260 avg ~20 hrs, 60 rbis, solid defense and clutch hitting.

Personally, I am going to continue to hope for the season Crede keeps teasing us with in 1-month versions. He'd have been a damn good hitter last year if somehow he could have eliminated his months of May and August. I'm not going to expect or plan for it, but I'm sure going to hope for it. A little consistency from that guy and suddenly he's one of the best 3rd basemen in the AL.

Personally, I am going to continue to hope for the season Crede keeps teasing us with in 1-month versions.  He'd have been a damn good hitter last year if somehow he could have eliminated his months of May and August.  I'm not going to expect or plan for it, but I'm sure going to hope for it.  A little consistency from that guy and suddenly he's one of the best 3rd basemen in the AL.

he was beyond terrible at the plate in May and August. he was A-W-F-U-L. in May he batted .155; in August he hit .103 (thats 6-for-58). so in May/August he hit .133, and the rest of the season he hit .310. last year I predicted he'd go for .280-25-80, and if he would have had just a normal slum in those two months (you know, something in the .200-.220 area, which is still bad) he'd have delivered and made me look smarter.

 

good news is Crede hit .379 in September, and .289 in the playoffs, so it wouldn't be a stretch for Crede to have a big year.

Edited January 11, 200620 yr by AirScott

he was beyond terrible at the plate in May and August.  he was A-W-F-U-L.  in May he batted .155; in August he hit .103 (thats 6-for-58).  so in May/August he hit .133, and the rest of the season he hit .310.  last year I predicted he'd go for .280-25-80, and if he would have had just a normal slum in those two months (you know, something in the .200-.220 area, which is still bad) he'd have delivered and made me look smarter.

 

good news is Crede hit .379 in September, and .289 in the playoffs, so it wouldn't be a stretch for Crede to have a big year.

 

That's my view too, which is why I argued in an earlier thread that the Sox should try to sign Crede to a 3-year deal, BEFORE he becomes a consistent hitter. We signed Mackowiak to a multi-year deal though he was arb-eligible. Same with AJ. Apply the same rationale with Crede. Even though he has Boras as his agent, if Crede does have a break-out year offensively, even if the Sox signed Boras's 3-year demand it would be less than his demand will be for next year's arbitration. But, because Crede can't go anywhere until 2009!, and Boras's demands will seem very unreasonable if Crede only repeats his offensive trends (or gets hurt), it is unlikely a deal will be made.

 

If Crede can lay off the outside breaking pitches (or take those in the zone the other way), which he was doing after he came off the DL, the guy could do .280-30-95, especially if they hit him 6th in the lineup behind Paul Konerko and Jim Thome. (I'd put Dye third, where he was during our season-ending 16-1 streak.)

crede is my favorite player, but he ain't battin no 300... 280 at best,plus he won't be 100 percent healthy

Talentwise, I have always been a Crede fan and supporter. If healthy, I would expect a 25-30 homer, 80-90 rbi with a .270-.280 avg. season.

 

However, 2 things bother me about Crede now. Firstly, his back issues - which I understand could be chronic. And, secondly that Boreass is his agent will soon affect his future with the Sox.

 

Unfortunately, I think that the Sox need to deal pre-emptively with Crede and look to unload him at the best possible juncture.

 

Ofcourse, replacing him with a 3b that is solid defensively and offensively won't be easy. And, it doesn't appear that Josh Fields will be the answer unless he surprises.

 

I wonder if it would be easier to trade for a ss and move Uribe to 3rd ? Contreras for Rollins ?

When analyzing a player like Crede, you have to look at the whole package.

 

His BA may hover around .240, but he hits for decent power. More importantly, he is a CLUTCH hitter. How many times did he come up huge in both the regular season and the psot season? Probably more than other Sox player.

 

Additionally, he is stellar at a tough defensive position.

 

Rag on Crede all you want. He's a perfect fit for this team.

Historically when players are on the last year of their contracts they have phenominal years, then sign huge contracts and return to normal. I'm betting Contreras wins at least 17 games and Crede hits over .300 if he is healthy.

 

 

While I generally agree iwth what you said, there are examples of guys like Edgar Renteria, Kevin Millwood (the 04 version) and a few otehrs who have struggled playing for the pressure of a contract. usually though, its coupled with injury issues (as is the case with the two guys I mentioned and Jamal Lewis in football)

 

It would be interesting if there was some data to support this either way. In other words, can we say from past stats that a player in the last year of his contract performs 18% (or insert any number) better/worse than his career averages up to that point?

 

We do know that some guys seem to excel and some guys seem to press to much and tank. Also, what other factors might be involved, does a guy who is 25 have a bigger increase than a guy who is 35 or vice versa or is that not a factor?

 

We need some stat geeks to run some regressions on this.