i was just wondering why Phillups is never consider a top prospect or even as a legit prospect for the major leagues. He has really good stats down in the minors. Does he not have great stuff, i think he is only 25.

25 is old in prospects years, plus he doesn't have overwhelming stuff or periphrials.

25 is old in prospects years, plus he doesn't have overwhelming stuff or periphrials.

Plus, his name is Phillips, not Phillups

I always find this frustrating. I think perhaps its a little short-sighted to just look at "stuff" and "peripherals". If a guy can make his way up the minors, to being the best pitcher (not best arm or best talent, best PITCHER) on the staff... then you need to start thinking that he may have some success.

 

I say this for two reasons. One, part of the "stuff" package should be the mental and physical makeup required to WIN consistently, and stay healthy. This guy appears to have that. Second reason: all this evaluation of "stuff" is, like all analysis, imperfect. And if your analysis says "this guys doesn't have it stuff", but he keeps being successful anyway... then maybe its time to realize a weakness in your analysis.

 

If this were football, I'd call it the Steve Largent principle. What is perceived and predicted as important may give you a pretty good clue as to future performance... but what matters in the end is getting it done. Some guys just know how to get it done.

I always find this frustrating. I think perhaps its a little short-sighted to just look at "stuff" and "peripherals". If a guy can make his way up the minors, to being the best pitcher (not best arm or best talent, best PITCHER) on the staff... then you need to start thinking that he may have some success.

 

I say this for two reasons. One, part of the "stuff" package should be the mental and physical makeup required to WIN consistently, and stay healthy. This guy appears to have that. Second reason: all this evaluation of "stuff" is, like all analysis, imperfect. And if your analysis says "this guys doesn't have it stuff", but he keeps being successful anyway... then maybe its time to realize a weakness in your analysis.

 

If this were football, I'd call it the Steve Largent principle. What is perceived and predicted as important may give you a pretty good clue as to future performance... but what matters in the end is getting it done. Some guys just know how to get it done.

It isn't just "stuff" with Phillips, this is his first year with any sort of real success since he spent 75 innings in high A ball. His days with Birmingham in a huge pitchers park were less than steller posting ERA/WHIPs of 4.02/1.39 and 4.07/1.41 that's pretty damn bad especially when you add in the fact that he really doesn't strike anyone out and gives up a ton of hits.

 

So basically he has finally found some success at the age of 25, in a weak IL and if you look at any of his stats that aren't ERA or Wins they're not that impressive at all. He's basically getting demolished on the road and the trends from his early years in the minors have followed him to AAA as well.

It isn't just "stuff" with Phillips, this is his first year with any sort of real success since he spent 75 innings in high A ball. His days with Birmingham in a huge pitchers park were less than steller posting ERA/WHIPs of 4.02/1.39 and 4.07/1.41 that's pretty damn bad especially when you add in the fact that he really doesn't strike anyone out and gives up a ton of hits.

 

So basically he has finally found some success at the age of 25, in a weak IL and if you look at any of his stats that aren't ERA or Wins they're not that impressive at all. He's basically getting demolished on the road and the trends from his early years in the minors have followed him to AAA as well.

I will take your word for all of that. And I'd agree those BHam numbers aren't spectacular.

 

And really, I wasn't just referring to Phillips. I meant in general. So, in his case... what if he starts again next year in Charlotte, and puts up similar or better numbers? I don't see his road/home splits so I don't know how bad they are - difficult for me to comment. But to me, if he can repeat his success, that's a pretty good indicator. And I see a lot of players who are successful that seem to get passed over for those who are PREDICTED to do better. I am not saying either one of those is invalid - I am saying BOTH are valid, and I think results and potential need to be balanced on analysis in the minors.

I think his ceiling is a middle reliever... having that great pickoff move is going to help him a ton as well.

If the Sox don't have room for him, he now has pretty good trade value to make a package deal.

Heath really impressed me in his AAA All-Star game. He seemed to have good command and a nice breaking ball. I thought a "poor man's" David Wells, but the book on him is he is a marginal prospect. Still, the guy has done well in AAA (Charlotte is a tough place to pitch) so I am sure he has been scouted by our own people and others.

Heath's biggest strength is the fact he is left-handed.

 

His biggest problem is, he has had the need to repeat levels. He had to repeat High A in 2003. While his numbers weren't great at Birmingham in 2004, he was a solid innings-eating pitcher and was impressive in how he competed and kept his team in games. Unfortunately, he really struggled last year at AAA and was sent back to Birmingham.

 

Heath could either be one of those late blooming types who gets better as he gets older and finds a niche in the big leagues for a few years or a guy who sits in the minors until he retires. Heath knows how to pitch. He's got pretty good command (likely getting better based on what he has done this year) and has an excellent changeup.

 

My recommendation is to look at Heath this way. Whatever you get out of him in the Majors is a bonus. Don't expect much despite his success this year, and if he makes it, enjoy the surprise.