If McCain pulls 18%, He's a big hero.

 

If Hillary Clinton squeaks by with a win at 33%, she's been rejected by 2/3 of the Democratic party.

 

Thank God the media is on the Dems side...

What about that makes you think they are not? Or are? I don't get it.

 

Of course Clinton is seen rejected - she has been the clear national leader for some time now. This WAS a big loss for her.

 

And McCain barely ran in Iowa - 13% and 3rd or 4th place isn't exactly a victory, but it doesn't hurt him much either.

 

 

It will be interesting in the next few days to see what the Iowa results do to the NH polls for both parties.

 

for the GOP, I looked at the latest non-Zogby, non-ARG polls.

 

I am a little skeptical of the WHDH/Suffolk tracking poll, because if you look at its day-to-day results, they are all over the place. For example, McCain's numbers for the last few days (PRIOR to Iowa, so no effect there yet), have gone 31-32-29-25, which is a big set of swings. Romney 25-23-25-29, Giuliani 14-11-9-9... the swings are just too big, compared to when, say, Rasmussen does a tracking poll, they tend to only shift a point in a day, maybe two at most.

 

The Franklin Pierce poll has a pretty low number at 419 polled, so I am a bit skeptical there too.

 

CNN's poll uses 1000 correspondants. Looking at those two...

 

___________Pierce__CNN

Clinton............32.......34

Obama............28.......30

Edwards..........19.......17

Richardson.......8.........5

Biden...............3.........3

Dodd................1.........1

 

I kept Biden and Dodd in there because, with them dropping out, it may be interesting to see where those voters go.

 

I think Edwards may be done. He's running somewhere in the 10-20 points behind range, and probably 10+ behind even 2nd place. He has virtually no money left to spend. And he won't get much of a bump from Iowa, if any. Richardson is definitely done. At this point, its Clinton and Obama. And that 4 point lead she has will probably vanish after Iowa, making this a very close race.

 

Ultimately, I think the decision of Clinton versus Obama will be decided by Edwards and Richardson, and who they endorse when they drop out (which I suspect Richardson will do after NH barring a major upset, and Edwards will do after Super Tuesday, again barring a major upset).

 

except for the Register Poll. in that i'm actually right - it's not spin. 60% were new voters and 45% were independents or republicans. That is NOT a good basis for an accurate poll. not even you can deny that.

I don't know that Edwards is done. Depends on what happens in S.C. actually. He spent a lot of money and effort in Iowa, but he has good Union support across the board and that can carry him a few more weeks. A strong third or a surprise second in New Hampshire definitely makes him viable through Tsunami Tuesday.

Ok, this is a nit-picky thing, but whenever Hillary talks and makes a hard statement, she does this head shake thing (as if she were saying no). It drives me nuts!! I didn't notice it until this morning, but it's annoying. Subtle things like this differentiate Hillary and Obama. That headshake thing makes her look cocky or arrogant.

I don't know that Edwards is done. Depends on what happens in S.C. actually. He spent a lot of money and effort in Iowa, but he has good Union support across the board and that can carry him a few more weeks. A strong third or a surprise second in New Hampshire definitely makes him viable through Tsunami Tuesday.

He is polling extremely low in SC. Last time I checked he was getting about 1% of the black vote down there.

He is polling extremely low in SC. Last time I checked he was getting about 1% of the black vote down there.

And the first win by Obama may well help enormously with that vote, because that vote was splitting pretty evenly between Obama and Clinton earlier in the polling seasons.

Didn't see that anyone had posted this yet, so here it is.

 

Referring to his new status as the Democratic front-runner, he said: "This feels good. It's just like I imagined it when I was talking to my Kindergarten teacher."

Point, Barack.

Point, Barack.

Classic! I love it!

Interesting NY Times blog of tonight's NH Democratic Party dinner.

Edited January 5, 200818 yr by BigSqwert

Interesting NY Times blog of tonight's NH Democratic Party dinner.

IF (and that's a big IF) Obama wins NH and then goes to SC and wins there, it's over.

IF (and that's a big IF) Obama wins NH and then goes to SC and wins there, it's over.

A MAJOR gaffe is the only way I see him losing if he wins those 3 states.

A MAJOR gaffe is the only way I see him losing if he wins those 3 states.

Maybe photos will surface of him on the Monkey Business with Donna Rice, that could derail his run for the White House.

Zogby's new poll today has Obama gaining 2 percentage points on Clinton. The poll is from Monday through Friday so we can already see the Iowa effect coming into play. Their poll is a rolling poll so tomorrow's should show a tie at least IMO.

 

LINK

Rasmussen now has Obama at 37% and Clinton at 27% in NH.

 

LINK

You can tell you're the front runner on the Dem side when Bill O'Reilly starts assaulting your staffers.

I just cannot stand Bill O'Reilly.

 

By the way, there's a lot of grumbing about Obama not being "left" enough and that Republicans are the ones pushing him over the top. If true, that's not necessarily a bad thing, IMO.

 

I just wish that he "got" Iraq, but I do have a sneaky feeling if he gets nominated his tune is going to change on that issue somewhat.

I just cannot stand Bill O'Reilly.

 

By the way, there's a lot of grumbing about Obama not being "left" enough and that Republicans are the ones pushing him over the top. If true, that's not necessarily a bad thing, IMO.

 

I just wish that he "got" Iraq, but I do have a sneaky feeling if he gets nominated his tune is going to change on that issue somewhat.

Well, there are 2 points I can make about Obama's position on the Spectrum. From my side, the positive thing I'd say is that in Iowa, BO didn't just win Iowa thanks to his record turnout amongst independents. According to the entrance polls, Obama won both self-identified independents and self-identified Democrats, although he was stronger amongst the Indy's. So he's actually attracting a pretty broad spectrum of our side, which is exactly what I think his campaign wants.

 

And second, right now, Obama is being attacked from the right by the Clinton campaign and from the Left by the Edwards campaign.

Obama faces the prospect of severe and hostile vetting from his primary opponents, however. Upon her arrival in New Hampshire this morning, Hillary Clinton signaled that she intends to play on Obama's as yet unexploited political weaknesses: "Who will be able to stand up to the Republican attack machine?" she asked at an appearance in Nashua.

 

Hillary's aides point to Obama's extremely progressive record as a community organizer, state senator and candidate for Congress, his alliances with "left-wing" intellectuals in Chicago's Hyde Park community, and his liberal voting record on criminal defendants' rights as subjects for examination.

Edwards' staff also immediately began to take shots at Obama: Appearing on MSNBC this morning, Edwards' manager David Bonior described Obama as a sellout to corporate America: "Barack Obama's kind of change is where you sit down and you cut a deal with the corporate world."

And when you're being attacked from both sides...somehow each one rings more hollow.

Rasmussen now has Obama at 37% and Clinton at 27% in NH.

 

LINK

American Res. Group is showing similar numbers, but as I have said, I dont trust them.

Edited January 5, 200818 yr by Athomeboy_2000

You can tell you're the front runner on the Dem side when Bill O'Reilly starts assaulting your staffers.

I was watching Fox News this morning... why... I have NO idea. BUT, they were all out assaulting Obama, Edwards, and Huckabee. It couldnt have be more obvious they dont want any of them in the White House.

You can tell you're the front runner on the Dem side when Bill O'Reilly starts assaulting your staffers.

 

Nicholson, who is 6'8, said O'Reilly called him "low class."

 

"He grabbed me with both his hands here,"

 

 

 

I was watching Fox News this morning... why... I have NO idea. BUT, they were all out assaulting Obama, Edwards, and Huckabee. It couldnt have be more obvious they dont want any of them in the White House.

Ok and who DO they want?

 

My personal opinion is Obama is "ok..." but not really. Edwards, I'd loathe the man. Hillary, I hate her. Guiliani is an assbag, Huckabee is what goes into the assbag, a steaming pile of s***, and Romney's not far behind the pile of s***.

 

I guess it's between Obama and McCain... and I don't think McCain's not a favorite of mine either.

 

Ok and who DO they want?

Their behavior has strongly suggested they'd love Giuliani. They've done things such as allowing Rudy to freely use Fox News clips in their ads while denying that same right to other campaigns, and we've got the statements by Judith Regan in that lawsuit against NewsCorp alleging that Fox tried to kill the Kerik story to help out the Rudy campaign.

American Res. Group is showing similar numbers, but as I have said, I dont trust them.

Well, the one thing worth noting about ARG is that they're actually based in New Hampshire, and so hypothetically NH polls should be their bread and butter.