Willis has been declining for two years now. I could see one year as a fluke/bad luck/injury year, but not two straight.

 

He has declined in every major statistical category since 2005. Then you add the NL to AL factor, and things will get interesting.

 

      W-L    IP  CG  H   ER  BB   K  ERA   WHIP  BAA

2005 22-10 236.1  7 213  69  55  170 2.63  1.13  .243

2006 12-12 223.1  4 234  96  83  160 3.87  1.42  .274

2007 10-15 205.1  0 241 118  87  146 5.17  1.60  .294

 

Obviously he and his agent only felt like he was worth that much, which doesn't seem like a vote of confidence.

 

I don't know about that. If I remember correctly, this deal just buys out Dontrelle's first year of free agency. He'll make $12 mil in the final year of the contract, so he won't be greatly underpaid at that time.

I don't know about that. If I remember correctly, this deal just buys out Dontrelle's first year of free agency. He'll make $12 mil in the final year of the contract, so he won't be greatly underpaid at that time.

I didn't know the contract details at the time, so $12 mil is not as bad as I thought orginally.

I actually disagree. The way the Sox are set right now, they could certainly be in the bidding for a high priced guy 2 years from now. They've added a bunch of young guys to their roster to fill holes, and in 2 years, Thome and Contreras will have their contracts cleared, along with Cabrera and some amount of inflation. With one or two more young guys coming along in the rotation or maybe in the OF, and some amount of revenue inflation, we'll be more than in a position to go after a big guy 2 years from now...as long as we don't do something horrendously stupid like blowing $18 million a year on a 33 year old CF.

I just don't see the Tigers letting him walk to a Division rival. At that point they would probably overpay to keep him.

I just don't see the Tigers letting him walk to a Division rival. At that point they would probably overpay to keep him.

 

You're right. The Tigers certainly don't want to lose him to us. However, it'll ultimately be up to Cabrera. There's little doubt in my mind that the Tigers will throw huge money at Miguel before he becomes a free agent. If Miguel wants to test the market, then the Sox will be set up to make a very serious push for him. It's all up to Miguel.

He'll make less than Carlos Silva. That alone is a good value.

Not if he pitches worse than Carlos Silva (which he has been as of late).

I just don't see the Tigers letting him walk to a Division rival. At that point they would probably overpay to keep him.

 

Well the rivalry thing is only one part of it in my mind. The fact that they gave up most of their farm system for him means they would be stupid not to beat any offer out there. The Tigers can't give up what they did for 2 years of a player. It makes no sense.