Evaluating series wins/losses/ties

[Greg Hibbard]

I hear statements like this all the time - "we NEED to win this series."

 

Certainly, winning two out of three games at home seems to be fairly reasonable expectation for a competitive team, and seems like an easy pattern to fall into for all of us. Breaking things up mentally in terms of opponents faced feels fairly natural.

 

However, the early 4-game Tampa series got me thinking. Expecting to win 3/4 games felt off to me, even with as down as Tampa has been. However, expecting a split felt wrong, too. Certainly we aren't going to play .750 at home, nor are we going to be happy with .500, overall.

 

After reflecting on it, I don't know that I buy into evaluating the team on the basis of that, constantly, which is what I seem to do. Is it really fair to evaluate a team based on three game snapshots over the course of a long season? Isn't this what actually contributes to people's see-sawing opinions on the team - people going from "Sox are worldbeaters" to doom and gloom in a matter of minutes?

 

I feel as though it would be better to set mental expectations for homestands and roadtrips, and that's what I've tried to do instead this season. Does anyone else do this, rather than look at each individual series? How often and in what way do you evaluate the team?

[Milkman delivers]

I base it on how many games they snatch from the jaws of defeat in comparison to how many they snatch from the jaws of victory.

 

In recent years and seemingly continuing into this year, we've blown more games that we were winning than we've stolen.

[flavum]

As I mentioned in the game thread yesterday, winning series only matters in October. I hate when Don Cooper mentions winning series during the regular season, because it gives the team a false sense of security in the third game of a series if they have won the first two.

 

The season is 162 opportunities to try to win 90+ or however many games it takes to make the playoffs.

 

But I do like the angle of taking it a home stand or a road trip at a time to evaluate where they stand record-wise.

[ScottyDo]

I base it on how many games they snatch from the jaws of defeat in comparison to how many they snatch from the jaws of victory.

 

In recent years and seemingly continuing into this year, we've blown more games that we were winning than we've stolen.

This tends to happen more when you've got a lot of leads, obviously. I don't think that's a good way of judging goodness/badness, as you're punishing a good thing.

 

Now, it would be great if we could keep late leads. That's super-frustrating.

[Texsox]

It really depends on how the evaluation is being used. As a fan interest thing, winning series is a fun idea. As a tool to judge how the team is doing overall, or what changes may be necessary, than it is kind of a poor yardstick.

 

But, as I was typing this I began to think, what does a team have to do in October? Practicing that may not be as crazy after all.

[maggsmaggs]

I base it on how many games they snatch from the jaws of defeat in comparison to how many they snatch from the jaws of victory.

 

In recent years and seemingly continuing into this year, we've blown more games that we were winning than we've stolen.

I agree with this. While it's good to win series and all like we have been doing, the "bad" losses are killer. You can't give games away like that. When we inevitably hit a rough stretch, we are gonna need those three games we have already blown.

[Milkman delivers]

This tends to happen more when you've got a lot of leads, obviously. I don't think that's a good way of judging goodness/badness, as you're punishing a good thing.

 

Now, it would be great if we could keep late leads. That's super-frustrating.

 

We might be about to see it again.