Free Agents best years are often behind them when they sign with their new team.

 

Prospects' best years often never come when they are acquired by their new team.

Free Agents best years are often behind them when they sign with their new team.

 

Prospects best years are more often behind them.

Prospects' best years often never come when they are acquired by their new team.

 

So you are taking a chance either way. I'd rather they took a chance using money in 2014 & 2015 on a player who might be around to contribute in 2016 and beyond then spend money in 2014 and 2015 on a player who will contribute those years, but isn't likely to contribute much after that. Just personal preference I guess.

Mat Gamel is available for nothing. He was once the Brewers top prospect and probably could have been had for Alexei and $33 million. Now you can have him for the price of a minor league contract. Get him signed Mr. Hahn.

So you are taking a chance either way. I'd rather they took a chance using money in 2014 & 2015 on a player who might be around to contribute in 2016 and beyond then spend money in 2014 and 2015 on a player who will contribute those years, but isn't likely to contribute much after that. Just personal preference I guess.

Why can't the Sox sign guys more likely to perform and then trade them for prospects? Like what they did with Peavy? Sign a guy, if you have a shot, great, if not, then you can move him along. The notion of sending a team or multiple teams $30 million each for a meddling prospect is insane.

So you are taking a chance either way. I'd rather they took a chance using money in 2014 & 2015 on a player who might be around to contribute in 2016 and beyond then spend money in 2014 and 2015 on a player who will contribute those years, but isn't likely to contribute much after that. Just personal preference I guess.

 

The chances are not at all equal. You are much much more likely to get what you paid for, at least in the short term, with a free agent, than you are to ever get any value from a prospect.

 

I'm not advocating building the team via free agency, I'm just saying that buying prospects at free agent prices is even worse.

Why can't the Sox sign guys more likely to perform and then trade them for prospects? Like what they did with Peavy? Sign a guy, if you have a shot, great, if not, then you can move him along. The notion of sending a team or multiple teams $30 million each for a meddling prospect is insane.

 

The beauty is if you don't get the prospect you want you don't spend the money.

The chances are not at all equal. You are much much more likely to get what you paid for, at least in the short term, with a free agent, than you are to ever get any value from a prospect.

 

I'm not advocating building the team via free agency, I'm just saying that buying prospects at free agent prices is even worse.

 

Sure, but the team isn't going to make the playoffs short-term.

The beauty is if you don't get the prospect you want you don't spend the money.

 

Free agency works the same way.

Marty, what E and Wite are trying to point out is that prospects in and of themselves hold no greater value than any other player other than the price at which they cost to retain. If there was a liquid market for veteran players and cost was not an issue, one would choose the predictability of veteran players 10 times out of 10 over prospects. When you start paying $30 million dollars for players that have an attrition rate that prospects have, you're not only devaluing much of the value the good prospects have, but you are obliterating the value of prospects in general.

 

 

Marty, what E and Wite are trying to point out is that prospects in and of themselves hold no greater value than any other player other than the price at which they cost to retain. If there was a liquid market for veteran players and cost was not an issue, one would choose the predictability of veteran players 10 times out of 10 over prospects. When you start paying $30 million dollars for players that have an attrition rate that prospects have, you're not only devaluing much of the value the good prospects have, but you are obliterating the value of prospects in general.

 

How many free agents are there where you are going to be able to buy their 24-29 years for $30M?

How many free agents are there where you are going to be able to buy their 24-29 years for $30M?

Hardly any, because of the service time requirements. But that surplus gets obliterated because of the attrition rate of prospects that turn into good mlb players.

Hardly any, because of the service time requirements. But that surplus gets obliterated because of the attrition rate of prospects that turn into good mlb players.

 

Right, but as mentioned in my earlier post the Sox are embarking on a rebuild with one of the worst farm systems in MLB. They are in a position where they have to pay a premium to shorten the process.

How many free agents are there where you are going to be able to buy their 24-29 years for $30M?

Any prospect worth paying another team $30 million to acquire is probably going to cost a decent amount during his arb years. You are eliminating all the cheap years.

 

Why do I have the feeling if the majority of posters thought the Marty/Bernstein idea was a good one, you would say it was dumb?

Edited October 2, 201312 yr by Dick Allen

Right, but as mentioned in my earlier post the Sox are embarking on a rebuild with one of the worst farm systems in MLB. They are in a position where they have to pay a premium to shorten the process.

Paying that premium is not the solution. The money you are talking about spending is so disproportionate to value that it wouldn't hardly make a dent.

 

If you were eating a few million here and there it might work. Otherwise it's really no different than overspending on FA to try and correct the problem. One day you wake up and you've spent a s***load of money and have one of the worst farm systems in MLB.

Any prospect worth paying another team $30 million to acquire is probably going to cost a decent amount during his arb years. You are eliminating all the cheap years.

 

This team doesn't have enough pieces to build around for that to be a concern as of now unfortunately.

Paying that premium is not the solution. The money you are talking about spending is so disproportionate to value that it wouldn't hardly make a dent.

 

If you were eating a few million here and there it might work. Otherwise it's really no different than overspending on FA to try and correct the problem. One day you wake up and you've spent a s***load of money and have one of the worst farm systems in MLB.

 

If they don't get the prospect they want they don't spend the money. It boils down to talent evaluation.

This team doesn't have enough pieces to build around for that to be a concern as of now unfortunately.

 

Marty, if it turns out to be as bad as you believe, then they will go on an extended rebuilding period and Sale will be traded along with many others. If it's not as bad as you believe, the team spends some money in the next couple offseasons and they are competitive and perhaps even win a Wild Card or Division championship, then everything was worth it and they are still in a position to compete in 2016. You are adament about not spending on guys like McCann and Ellsbury and Granderson, but really those kinds of deals can turn out great for the team - Jermaine Dye was signed at the age of 31 and had 5 pretty great years for the Sox, Thome was brought in at 35 and had 4 good years for the Sox too, so why can't the Sox sign two guys who will turn 30 next year and expect them to be productive for an extended period of time?

 

 

Marty, if it turns out to be as bad as you believe, then they will go on an extended rebuilding period and Sale will be traded along with many others. If it's not as bad as you believe, the team spends some money in the next couple offseasons and they are competitive and perhaps even win a Wild Card or Division championship, then everything was worth it and they are still in a position to compete in 2016. You are adament about not spending on guys like McCann and Ellsbury and Granderson, but really those kinds of deals can turn out great for the team - Jermaine Dye was signed at the age of 31 and had 5 pretty great years for the Sox, Thome was brought in at 35 and had 4 good years for the Sox too, so why can't the Sox sign two guys who will turn 30 next year and expect them to be productive for an extended period of time?

 

I want one more core young hitter added to Garcia before considering free agents. That's going to be the difficult piece to get.

Marty, if it turns out to be as bad as you believe, then they will go on an extended rebuilding period and Sale will be traded along with many others. If it's not as bad as you believe, the team spends some money in the next couple offseasons and they are competitive and perhaps even win a Wild Card or Division championship, then everything was worth it and they are still in a position to compete in 2016. You are adament about not spending on guys like McCann and Ellsbury and Granderson, but really those kinds of deals can turn out great for the team - Jermaine Dye was signed at the age of 31 and had 5 pretty great years for the Sox, Thome was brought in at 35 and had 4 good years for the Sox too, so why can't the Sox sign two guys who will turn 30 next year and expect them to be productive for an extended period of time?

And if they fail, if in Marty's world, his idea makes sense, why can't they eat half their contracts and trade them for prospects? In a world where BJ Upton has value at $30 million, I can't imagine any of those three having less at half of what they would cost.

 

Isn't trading for Upton or Reyes and then trading them basically a sign and trade? So what is the difference between actually signing the free agent vs. trading for him and eating money to move him along?

 

Bernstein's plan works for the NBA but not baseball. Marty tries to make it work for baseball, but it adds a step and makes no sense. If the Sox have money to burn and need prospects, isn't signing free agents then eating money and trading them directly the answer?

Edited October 2, 201312 yr by Dick Allen

I want one more core young hitter added to Garcia before considering free agents. That's going to be the difficult piece to get.

 

Except that the core young hitter could very easily be a free agent in the form of Jose Abreu. For whatever reason, it seems that you consistently ignore this point.

Except that the core young hitter could very easily be a free agent in the form of Jose Abreu. For whatever reason, it seems that you consistently ignore this point.

 

No I want one more young hitter in addition to the possibility of Abreau.

No I want one more young hitter in addition to the possibility of Abreau.

 

Prospects represent an even smaller possibility of turning into productive hitters than anyone on the free agent market.

Prospects represent an even smaller possibility of turning into productive hitters than anyone on the free agent market.

 

I don't think building a team through free agency is the way to go, SS2K5.

The farm system is improving. They showed a few of the guys in September who can be contributors. The org still lacks position player depth in a big way of course, but there are a few, and a number of pitchers as well.

 

Hahn has shown he is going to spend big (within the new rules) on Int'l and the draft. He also cleaned house and re-organized the scouting ranks, is adding a new 7th minor league rookie affiliate in 2014, and is dramatically increasing LatAm presence.

 

Because of all that, and how the new rules mostly help the Sox, and the large amount of salary headroom he will have to work with (probably $40M+), I think it makes perfect sense to acquire some free agents or players via trade that are above average pieces (even if they aren't stars). Filling in the blanks still needs to be done, and can be done smartly, without jeopardizing 2015 and beyond.

 

And I'll say again, with the pitching talent they have on the MLB team, 2014 is not a lost cause (yet). If they can make a handful of the right moves, the offense and defense can improve a lot, and that makes a ton of difference.