The Steamer Projections for 2015 showed up on Fangraphs a couple days ago. I'm linking to Sox hitters and pitchers. There's also a little more detail available on each player's page, ie K/BB rates and stuff.

 

These aren't to be taken too seriously, especially because the offseason hasn't even begun and teams will look much different than they do now. But it's fun to look at and might ignite some discussion. A few things that jump out to me:

 

-Abreu at .283/.354/.530/.885 with 35 HR, which would be a modest step back from this season. Somewhat disappointing until you realize that these projections rarely predict outstanding performances and he's pegged for the 9th highest OPS and wOBA in baseball (Miguel Cabrera is 1st).

-It likes Semien quite a bit, giving him 1.5 WAR in only 92 games with a 10.1 BB% and 18.6 K% that stacks up against the numbers he's put up in the minors. That type of year from him would be extremely satisfying.

-Avisail slated for a .316 OBP. If I had to guess, I would put it higher, more like .330.

-Eaton projected to roughly repeat this season.

-Again, these are out way early, but if Andy Wilkins gets 400 PA's, the Sox offseason will not have gone well...

-Four different guys will have one plate appearance, including Paul Konerko, and hit between .208 and .246. Look forward to that.

 

-Sale is projected for the third-highest WAR among all pitchers. A projected 3.00 ERA would be a bummer in reality, but it is the fourth-lowest for starting pitchers (Kershaw, Felix, Jose Fernandez).

-No pitcher is projected for more than 202 innings. This is by design. Sale and Quintana both sit at 192, but that's the only thing the system likes about Q. A 3.93 ERA for him, which is higher than any he has ever put up in the majors, seems questionable. I think HR regression is mostly responsible.

-This pitching staff would combine for 8.2 WAR, which would have been 28th in the majors this season.

-Felipe Paulino will pitch one inning, give up one earned run, and somehow parlay that into a 5.25 ERA. Look forward to that.

inb4 "What are Cleveland's Steamer projections?"

That that pitching staff is ugly behind Quintana. Crazy how quickly something can go from a strength to a weakness.

I prefer the Oliver projections so I don't have to fool around with thinking about playing time. In my mind, I want to think about "what will this player do compared to that one if they both play full time?"

And just so I can get to it before anybody goes into tearing these apart, realize that these are projections and that they give us some baseline as to what we should expect. They are not suggesting that these are the end all, be all. There will be more projection systems that come out that also use different models and come up with less or more optimistic projections.

 

Curious to see if/when people project Rodon's MLB numbers.

That that pitching staff is ugly behind Quintana. Crazy how quickly something can go from a strength to a weakness.

That's why I've advocated making the rotation the highest priority. There's room in there for any type of signing, no worries guys! I understand the John Danks financials but you could replace Noesi and I wouldn't shed any tears.

 

I prefer the Oliver projections so I don't have to fool around with thinking about playing time. In my mind, I want to think about "what will this player do compared to that one if they both play full time?"

They do have Steamer600 easily accessible from there, which puts all hitters at 600 plate appearances and starting pitchers and relievers at 200/65 innings. That would make Semien our second highest WAR guy.

inb4 "What are Cleveland's Steamer projections?"

 

I'm sure they're s***ty.

I'm sure they're s***ty.

Legitimately lol'ed.

inb4 "What are Cleveland's Steamer projections?"

 

YOU CANT DO THAT TO YOUR OWN POST! YOU CANT TRIPLESTAMP A DOUBLESTAMP!

I'm sure they're s***ty.

 

Does Mike "Dirty" Sanchez still write for them?