SoxBlanco
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Posts posted by SoxBlanco
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3 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:
Thank you. I always see the "everything went wrong last year and they still won 81 games" line, but I couldn't disagree with it more. Had Cueto and Andrus not shown up and played like it was 2011, last year's team probably wins more like 72 games.
Elvis Andrus was a 7.5 fWAR/162 player for the White Sox last year. Things like that don't happen in a year where "everything goes wrong," and the true worst case scenario for this team is accordingly much lower than 81 wins
Cueto started 25 games last year, and we only won 11 of those games. Yes, he was a fantastic surprise last year, but we didn't win that many of the games he started. If I was the starting pitcher for all 25 of those game, the Sox would have ended with 70 wins. If somebody like Davis Martin started all 25 of those game, the team win/loss results probably aren't much different than what Cueto did.
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3 minutes ago, bmags said:
I don't know, that would be Leury who was one of the worst players in baseball. One Armed luis robert had a 52 wRC+ in the second half. Leury had a 44.
Haha, you make a good point if it was indeed Leury who was filling in. I'd like to think it would be someone else, particularly when Cairo was managing.
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1 hour ago, Tnetennba said:
but does Beni replace Abreu and then some?
You can't just look at offense. Abreu is undoubtedly a better offensive player than Benintendi, but you need to look at the whole picture. The domino effect improved our outfield defense by A LOT.
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54 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:
The Sox won 81 games last year despite the following:
- They were managed by a corpse who's decisions more often than not seemed like he was actually trying to put the team in a position to lose. He also set a precedent that hustling was not important.
- Luis Robert recorded 2 RBI and 0 HR after July 14th - yes 2 friggin RBI - despite appearing in 25 games. Missed 64 total games, but played 25 with 1 hand. Robert basically missed the entire 2nd half of the season.
- Tim Anderson missed 83 games, although wasn't himself even after returning from the May groin injury.
- Yoan Moncada missed 58 games, and when he played, he posted a wRC+ of 76, a significant drop from 120 in 2021, and WELL below his career average of 108, which includes the awful 2022.
- Eloy Jimenez missed 78 games. While he did post a strong wRC+ when he played, he still missed half the season, although expecting Eloy to play more than 120 games is fools good.
- Yasmani Grandal was -0.4 fWAR and 68 wRC+ player after posting 3.6 fWAR and 158 wRC+ in 2021. Chances are Grandal didn't completely forget how to hit a baseball at 33 years old. We now know he was dealing with significant injuries all season. I don't have high hopes for Grandal finding the fountain of youth in 2023, but I think it'd be very difficult for him not to improve on his 2022 in a time share.
- The Sox spent the vast majority of the season playing two first basemen in the OF leaving them with easily the worst OF defense in the game. This turned a 113 wRC+ effort from Andrew Vaughn into a negative fWAR player. The days of Vaughn being anything more than an emergency OF are over.
- Lynn, Kopech and Giolito all missed starts, with Lynn and Kopech missing significant time. Bummer missed significant time.
Basically, nearly everything that could have gone wrong, did go wrong in 2022. Despite all of that going wrong, the Sox still were as close as 3 games back in mid September. I can understanding looking at this group and being discouraged. We lost a franchise pillar in Jose Abreu, which sucks. But in doing so improved the OF defense immensely which was, in my opinion, the biggest team need along with getting more left handed. While we didn't get as left handed as I would have liked, adding Benintendi and Colas will balance the lineup a great deal, especially if Moncada and Yaz bounce back, even modestly.
This offseason sucked. Jerry is the worst. Hahn appears to be puzzled, and handcuffed. The Clevinger thing is terrible. Lots of bad. But this this squad still has a boatload of talent, and the division still isn't good. The Twins have hardly improved on a team that finished 3 games behind the Sox. The Guardians are the Guardians, and frankly were bad for most of the season before getting hot at the right time. I think all three of those clubs will finish above .500 and we'll have an entertaining 3 team race all season.
I would be really shocked to see things go as poorly for The Sox in 23 and they did in 22. I have this team winning 88 games, and I think 90+ is in the cards if their best players can stay healthy enough play 130+ games. I, for one, cannot wait for April for some White Sox baseball. I think this club will surprise, and I think Grifol will be the freshest of fresh air for the boys.
Granted we're only 33 days into 2023, but this is the post of the year so far.
I'll add one thing: You mentioned that Robert basically missed the second half of the year, but it was actually WORSE than that. He was hurting the team, and the Sox would have likely been better off if he was actually just out the entire second half.
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7 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:
I’m not predicting 90 losses, but I think they will be closer to 90 losses than 90 wins. Too many question marks and too many holes, with next to no depth, near ready prospects, or available funds to add. Banking on perfect health and spectacular bounce back from everyone fells like a recipe for failure.
I don't think they need "perfect" health. Somewhere in between perfect health and last year's health (combined with no TLR) would give us more wins than last year.
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We are due for a win on opening day. Sox haven't won on opening day since the game where Davidson hit three home runs. That seems like so long ago.
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2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:
You knew it was a bad move when......the Dodgers benched him during the playoffs.
And yet, that player still made the playoffs as the starting catcher for seven straight years (for three different teams).
The Grandal signing was a good signing, no matter how much you hate him.
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5 hours ago, Harry Chappas said:
Taking him over Cueto is pure insanity. it almost feels like the White Sox do not even try to improve their situation.
Why do people want Cueto but want nothing to do with Elvis Andrus?
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7 minutes ago, Chick Mercedes said:
It would be a non story if it wasn’t the new manager suggesting Eloy get work in right field. Since he did, its a story.
I was talking about Eloy’s comment on not knowing who would be the clubhouse leader.
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2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:
To be fair, when a leader leaves, along with an entire management team, it is kind of hard to know who the next leader would be. The personality of a locker room isn't a linear equation. Who knows who emerges. Of all of the things to be annoyed with, this isn't one. Also I do like the fact that Eloy still WANTS to play OF, even if it scares me to death. It at least means he isn't a quitter.
Those were my EXACT same thoughts when I read this. This is a complete non-story in my eyes.
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25 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:
If Elvis could be had for like 1/$3-4M to play 2B, considering the current state of the roster and external options, what would you guys think about that? I was never for it, but as the options dwindle, it feels better than handing the job to Romy if Evlis could actually be had for $3-4M.
This was what I posted over a month ago, so I would definitely be fine with signing Elvis if we could get him for cheap at this point.
On 12/17/2022 at 4:39 PM, SoxBlanco said:This would be my 2B plan moving forward:
1. Explore the trade route and hopefully something comes along that’s worth pulling the trigger on.
2. If we’re moving into February and nothing has come to fruition on the trade front, then see if Drury or Andrus are still available. They are not players I’d sign right now, but if there’s not a market for them and they can be signed late in the offseason for less, then I would pull the trigger.
3. If neither of the above works out, then just go with Sosa/Romy/Popeye. It’s nice that there are multiple internal options because even if one of them struggles, hopefully another will step up.
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2 hours ago, greg775 said:
The idea of Eloy in RF is ludicrous. I mean cmon. Now that we showed Jose the door just put Eloy at DH every single game or add him to the 1B brigade for a game a week as a reward for staying healthy. If he doesn't like it he can leave via free agency when it's time.
If the Sox are serious about him in the OF then in the offseason they'd pay Jermaine Dye or somebody to work out with Eloy one month straight in Arizona in the OF and see if there's any chance he could play out there. Can u imagine Eloy in RF? It will be comical.
Eloy has no business playing RF at all next year, but the funny thing is that he would be better out there than Sheets and Vaughn.
Can we please just stay healthy for once so that this never even becomes an option?
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Wow. Wishing you and your family the best, Liam. I know you’ll close the door on this awful disease.
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Pollock to Seattle for $7M.
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10 minutes ago, The Grinder said:
Happy belated birthday Bro, 40 not too far off. Thats when s%*# starts malfuntioning trust me I know
Ha, thank man. I’ll make sure to enjoy these next 363 days.
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Thanks for doing these, @Lip Man 1.
I noticed you didn’t have anything for January 5. If you’re looking to add something, you can say that legendary SoxTalk member SoxBlanco was born on that date in 1984.
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4 minutes ago, Pants Rowland said:
Just outside Ebbing, Missouri
Are there three of them?
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28 minutes ago, South Sider said:
Some sort of competent option should have been brought in
Why are you saying “should have been” brought in, instead of “should be” brought in? It’s January 4th.
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22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
Furthermore, this was fed by one "Rick Hahn" who said that he would have to do work on the trade market and who has since made...0 trades
When did Hahn say he had to make trades? I thought he just said trades were more likely than free agent signings.
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30 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
They were substantially better than the White Sox last year.
They played 16 rookies last year, so they have a decent chance of being even better and way deeper this year.
Their system is top 5 in baseball so even if people get hurt they have serious depth to call up and use for trades.
They’re weak spots last year - power in the middle of the lineup, catcher - they have improved at those in free agency. They lost no one of importance to them in Free Agency.
They have one of the best managers in baseball.
They now have playoff experience also.
If you go position by position, Cleveland is as good or better than the White Sox on paper across the whole roster. A couple might be narrow wins for the White Sox , but on paper that’s it.
The White Sox had a negative run differential last year so the White Sox might not even be as good as their .500 record from last year.
The White Sox lost their second best player and second best pitcher to free agency. The guys they added in free agency are just trying to make up for what they’ve lost, and they still need others to improve just to make up that ground.
The White Sox have a bad system particularly at the upper levels, so it is difficult for them to fill in for injured players with callups or trades.
There is a scenario where the White Sox are better, where literally all the problems the last 2 years were LaRussa related and they are super lucky with health this year. Grifol almost certainly would win manager of the year in this case.
On paper this is Clearly Cleveland’s division. Someone has to seriously overperform to catch them. It can happen, but very few people outside of Sox fans and no projection systems are going to pick the White Sox this year.
And yet, almost every expert, fan, and projection system had the Sox as the better team going into last season. Why were they all so wrong?
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On 12/27/2022 at 7:18 PM, Jack Parkman said:
Yeah and one of the teams that is better than them is Cleveland.
This may seem like a dumb question, but why do you think Cleveland is a better team than the Sox?
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6 hours ago, bmags said:
Yeah all this. It is a true warts and all position now. I think outfield defense is more vulnerable currently than any offensive gains for a lot of these guys we are discussing.
We had a good pitching staff last year because they Kd a lot of batters, but any contact went to the worst defense of my life.
Benintendi is just a neutral outfielder, Robert had trended to slightly above average, and colas is reported as average albeit with a dynamite arm.
adding our fourth outfielder as just a limited corner guy puts more PT to Leury and Romy. Puts a lot of pressure on Roberts health.
Are we gonna get a last minute Adam Engel signing?
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1 hour ago, oldsox said:
Lots of low points last season. Engel dropping the flyball with two outs in the 9th was the worst. However, I can sense optimism returning here.
The Engel drop and the 6 run collapse against Cleveland are two of the worst losses of the last decade.
F*ck 2022. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong, and I’m optimistic about our chances in 2023.
Cheers, fellas.
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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:
I’d actually like to know which team is this example of a team that is built to maybe win 89 games, sneaks into the playoffs, and then wins a title. The most recent example I have might be the 03 Marlins?
04 - Boston. Was a wild card team, improbable ALCS, but was also a perennial playoff team and will show up again soon.05 - might be the team on here with the least sustained success. Might be the most out of nowhere title in 20 years.
06 - Cardinals - everyone makes a big deal of them winning 82 games, but the same team won 100 games the year before and was in the 04 World Series. That’s a sustained period of excellence.
07 - hey Boston again, maybe they weren’t a fluke.
08 - Phillies - was a surprise at the time but they made the playoffs 5 straight years.
09 - Yankees. Most recent example I have of a team getting a title in FA.
10. 12. 14. Giants. There were a couple wild card appearances in there but that’s seriously sustained success.
11 - Cardinals again.
13 - Red Sox again.
15 - Royals - complete rebuild, “best system in baseball history”, two straight World Series appearances.
16 - Cubs - made NLCS the year before, 5 straight playoff appearances.
17 - Astros. Bit of help from a trash can, but have made the playoffs every year since.
18 - Red Sox again.
19 - Nationals - was a wild card team, but had 5 playoff appearances and 4 division titles since 2012, never finished worse than second.
20 - Dodgers. Definition of sustained success.
21 - Braves - have now won the NL East 5 straight years.
22 - Astros again.
This seems very non random to me. There are zero examples of the Rockies or Marlins or Diamondbacks or Pirates sneaking in with an 88 win season and winding up with a title. Teams like that have made the World Series a couple times but I don’t see a win. Every one of them is a multi-year contender who wins their division repeatedly, the shortest stint other than the 05 White Sox is probably the Royals who couldn’t afford to keep a team that made two straight World Series appearances together.
Titles are going to franchises that are excellent for years.
This entire post is predicated on the fact that the Sox are NOT a perennial division winner during this stretch. I believe they are, and 2021 is the outlier. If the Sox win a World Series within the next few years, they will fit right in with several other teams on your list: “won the division every year from 2020 through 2024 (with one exception)”
The White Sox over/under for 2023 wins is 83.5
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted · Edited by SoxBlanco
I think you are missing our point. Wins don’t matter in assessing how good a pitcher performed. But people were claiming that the TEAM wouldn’t have won as many games without the great performance of Cueto, and that simply isn’t true.
You said that we “can’t say Cueto didn’t pitch well”, and you’re absolutely right. He pitched great.