3500S

Theo thinks of him like a son. I wouldn't bother.

You won't get that guarantee from him no matter where he goes. That's why he's even available. Even compared to Harper, Betts is a tier above.

Well the reality is trying to sit back and develop this core while adorning it with Zach Wheeler-tier free agents is not going to get it done. We've done that before and it didn't work very well. The Sox are simply short on elite talent even if they hit on Kopech and Robert. Someone would need to come out of nowhere. I know we're all sick to death of thinking about Tatis Jr. but that move looms massively over everything because what the Sox need is just one more guy who can be a star and then you can start seeing this work. I have zero faith anyone in the minors after Robert and Madrigal are called up can fulfill that potential. Maybe Vaughn but he would need to be extraordinary. But when I'm presented with the option of perhaps trading that unknown commodity in Vaughn for a known commodity in Betts who just happens to be EXACTLY the player the Sox need...well even for one year I cant help but be all about it.

You know the Twins went from 78 to 103 wins right? You act like its impossible when it very clearly isn't.

Those figures are crazy pessimistic.

Look everyone wants to be the Cardinals or Astros (if they cant have the money of the Yankees or Dodgers)...the fact that the Sox have to settle for cyclical periods of competitiveness just means were like the rest of MLB. And until actual anti-tanking measures are taken and fielding a competitive team year-in-year-out goes back to being the best chance of winning it all... this is what the Sox have to settle for. Lashing out at the front office or ownership over this fact is not what I'm trying to do. Its hard to be really good at drafting and international free agency.

There's not enough talent right now for sustained winning and zero indication that any of the infrastructure in the development or scouting side of things even slightly exists enough to create a constant flow of assets available for call-up or trade. Even the Cubs with their godly farm system five years ago are now up on the rocks. Need to come to grips with this reality guys. The fundamental changes that needed to happen in order to give the Sox sustained success are not going to happen. They suck at drafting and they suck at international free agency. BUT they did nail the Q, Sale and Eaton trades and maybe those assets plus a little bit of luck plus Mookie Betts is enough to win it all or at least give us one hell of a season. I wouldn't expect much more than that.

The really elite ones are Moncada, Eloy, Robert and Giolito. Kopech could be depending how you feel (personally I think he may be the best of the bunch aside from Robert). Anderson, Madrigal, Vaughn and Cease are a step below those guys. I would also include Reynaldo Lopez in that tier, as he actually showed a lot of things to be encouraged by this year. Then you've got the quality players filling out the roster like Bummer, Colome, McCann, Abreu. From what I see this just isn't good enough.

I'm not sure there is much long-term viability because they didn't do well enough (or really well at all) in International signings or the draft these four years. Basically only gotten contributions from first-rounders, and not many of them at that. Adolfo and Hansen have fallen to pieces and of all these outfielders we acquired in trades only Jimenez (the obvious one) has shown enough to be considered ML worthy. They dribbled the rebuild off their foot but they did do well enough to find what looks to be five or so really elite players. Add an MVP candidate to that and maybe you can catch lightning in a bottle for a year. That may be their best shot mate.

Vaughn, Stiever, Walker + something from A-ball. Those are you three most valuable minor leaguers after Madrigal and Robert. Under no circumstances include Robert or Kopech (Eloy, Giolito and Moncada go without saying). If push comes to shove I'd include Madrigal or Cease + Vaughn.

Its not just about hitting on the prospects its about being better than everyone else. I'll tell you right now a player like Betts isn't going to be available for trade again any time soon, especially at this discounted cost. And anyone hoping the Sox shell out $400m for him next season is crazy, the only way that's even slightly feasible is if Betts wins a title on the South Side and Jerry cant bear to watch him leave. Right now even if everything goes reasonably well the Sox are still needing some luck to get into the playoffs and will need to really pull a rabbit out of their hat if they want to get past the Yankees or Astros. Add Betts though? Everything changes. Even if its just for one year putting Betts, Eloy, Moncada, Robert, Abreu and Anderson together could be just too much for any pitching staff to reliably handle. And if they kept Madrigal they would be outstanding defensively. The goal here is win it all. I see trading for Betts as the best way to do that.

I still believe in Rutherford so he'd be my number two after Mr. Obvious. Walker has done nothing to be considered a non-prospect so he's number three. After that its so bleak I prefer not to even look.

The trap I'm worried about falling into is signing a pitcher hoping he can give the Sox 180 innings of four ERA ball and he winds up giving them 100 innings of seven ERA ball. I'm a little intrigued by Keuchel but Odorizzi and Wheeler do nothing for me. Just feels like every time you go out and get a guy who you want to just be good enough they wind up worse than what you signed them to replace.

A lot has to go right for Vaughn to reach that projection. You have to account for that uncertainty. Draft position doesn't really mean anything anymore. Just because they were regarded differently as amateurs doesn't mean those perceptions will last forever.

This is why I have a bit of a feeling that even with Robert enduring some major league adjustments next year may be our best chance. Especially since the Astros will be losing Cole and their next two best starters are 36 and 37 years old. As of May 1 2020 the minor league pipeline effectively runs dry and your only real hope of finding additional production comes from shrewd trades and free agency. It sucks but next year could very well be their best chance at winning a title with this core.