The Sox lost the gamble after 2023. You are now gambling that if he has a good start to the year and doesn't get hurt, you might get 60-70 percent of value instead of 50 percent. If he starts bad or gets hurt, then you are at 20-30 percent of value. Since the thread started with Sox asking for multiple top prospects, 50 percent might be one good prospect- 50FV. If he is good, maybe two 50FV or a 55 and a 50 if you get a bit of a bidding war. 20-30 percent probably a prospect who is older /hurt and has lost luster or a 45 value.