3500S

Theo thinks of him like a son. I wouldn't bother.

You won't get that guarantee from him no matter where he goes. That's why he's even available. Even compared to Harper, Betts is a tier above.

Well the reality is trying to sit back and develop this core while adorning it with Zach Wheeler-tier free agents is not going to get it done. We've done that before and it didn't work very well. The Sox are simply short on elite talent even if they hit on Kopech and Robert. Someone would need to come out of nowhere. I know we're all sick to death of thinking about Tatis Jr. but that move looms massively over everything because what the Sox need is just one more guy who can be a star and then you can start seeing this work. I have zero faith anyone in the minors after Robert and Madrigal are called up can fulfill that potential. Maybe Vaughn but he would need to be extraordinary. But when I'm presented with the option of perhaps trading that unknown commodity in Vaughn for a known commodity in Betts who just happens to be EXACTLY the player the Sox need...well even for one year I cant help but be all about it.

You know the Twins went from 78 to 103 wins right? You act like its impossible when it very clearly isn't.

Those figures are crazy pessimistic.

Look everyone wants to be the Cardinals or Astros (if they cant have the money of the Yankees or Dodgers)...the fact that the Sox have to settle for cyclical periods of competitiveness just means were like the rest of MLB. And until actual anti-tanking measures are taken and fielding a competitive team year-in-year-out goes back to being the best chance of winning it all... this is what the Sox have to settle for. Lashing out at the front office or ownership over this fact is not what I'm trying to do. Its hard to be really good at drafting and international free agency.

There's not enough talent right now for sustained winning and zero indication that any of the infrastructure in the development or scouting side of things even slightly exists enough to create a constant flow of assets available for call-up or trade. Even the Cubs with their godly farm system five years ago are now up on the rocks. Need to come to grips with this reality guys. The fundamental changes that needed to happen in order to give the Sox sustained success are not going to happen. They suck at drafting and they suck at international free agency. BUT they did nail the Q, Sale and Eaton trades and maybe those assets plus a little bit of luck plus Mookie Betts is enough to win it all or at least give us one hell of a season. I wouldn't expect much more than that.

The really elite ones are Moncada, Eloy, Robert and Giolito. Kopech could be depending how you feel (personally I think he may be the best of the bunch aside from Robert). Anderson, Madrigal, Vaughn and Cease are a step below those guys. I would also include Reynaldo Lopez in that tier, as he actually showed a lot of things to be encouraged by this year. Then you've got the quality players filling out the roster like Bummer, Colome, McCann, Abreu. From what I see this just isn't good enough.

I'm not sure there is much long-term viability because they didn't do well enough (or really well at all) in International signings or the draft these four years. Basically only gotten contributions from first-rounders, and not many of them at that. Adolfo and Hansen have fallen to pieces and of all these outfielders we acquired in trades only Jimenez (the obvious one) has shown enough to be considered ML worthy. They dribbled the rebuild off their foot but they did do well enough to find what looks to be five or so really elite players. Add an MVP candidate to that and maybe you can catch lightning in a bottle for a year. That may be their best shot mate.

Vaughn, Stiever, Walker + something from A-ball. Those are you three most valuable minor leaguers after Madrigal and Robert. Under no circumstances include Robert or Kopech (Eloy, Giolito and Moncada go without saying). If push comes to shove I'd include Madrigal or Cease + Vaughn.

Its not just about hitting on the prospects its about being better than everyone else. I'll tell you right now a player like Betts isn't going to be available for trade again any time soon, especially at this discounted cost. And anyone hoping the Sox shell out $400m for him next season is crazy, the only way that's even slightly feasible is if Betts wins a title on the South Side and Jerry cant bear to watch him leave. Right now even if everything goes reasonably well the Sox are still needing some luck to get into the playoffs and will need to really pull a rabbit out of their hat if they want to get past the Yankees or Astros. Add Betts though? Everything changes. Even if its just for one year putting Betts, Eloy, Moncada, Robert, Abreu and Anderson together could be just too much for any pitching staff to reliably handle. And if they kept Madrigal they would be outstanding defensively. The goal here is win it all. I see trading for Betts as the best way to do that.

I still believe in Rutherford so he'd be my number two after Mr. Obvious. Walker has done nothing to be considered a non-prospect so he's number three. After that its so bleak I prefer not to even look.

The trap I'm worried about falling into is signing a pitcher hoping he can give the Sox 180 innings of four ERA ball and he winds up giving them 100 innings of seven ERA ball. I'm a little intrigued by Keuchel but Odorizzi and Wheeler do nothing for me. Just feels like every time you go out and get a guy who you want to just be good enough they wind up worse than what you signed them to replace.

A lot has to go right for Vaughn to reach that projection. You have to account for that uncertainty. Draft position doesn't really mean anything anymore. Just because they were regarded differently as amateurs doesn't mean those perceptions will last forever.

This is why I have a bit of a feeling that even with Robert enduring some major league adjustments next year may be our best chance. Especially since the Astros will be losing Cole and their next two best starters are 36 and 37 years old. As of May 1 2020 the minor league pipeline effectively runs dry and your only real hope of finding additional production comes from shrewd trades and free agency. It sucks but next year could very well be their best chance at winning a title with this core.

I wish it worked like this but it doesn't. We aren't trading Zach Collins for Gavin Lux any time soon despite Collins being drafted ten spots higher. The odds of Vaughn being as outstanding as Alonso are pretty low.

It feels unrealistic to expect Vaughn to break the rookie HR record.

I just dont think these guys are at all equal. Robert is clearly leads and bounds better than the rest of them and he has basically unlimited potential if he stays healthy. Kopech is just one tier below that (and by no fault of his own, Robert just has that much potential). I'm absolutely in agreement that giving up either of them is off the table unless its a cartoonishly imbalanced deal. Cease and Madrigal are more in with what you're describing. Cheap and valuable players that would be difficult to replace. If Madrigal is a .300 hitting defensive whiz and Cease is a bonafide #3 starter you're better off keeping them. I'm willing to go a little further than most and include one of these two guys because the allure of adding a ten win player to a roster I think already has another ten win player in the making is too much to not indulge. But how much does it really cost to find a right-handed hitter to crank bombs and not play a position? Sure Vaughn's cheap, but unlike Cease and Madrigal I dont think he's so much cheaper than free agent alternatives that he should be guarded so covetously.

I agree that this will never happen. But what is possible is that in one year Betts endears himself as a member of the family and the Sox miraculously open up the checkbook to keep him. Still you have to acqurie Betts with the assumption that he's walking next year.

Ok but ask yourself is Andrew Vaughn really *that* key to the Sox future? With Moncada, Eloy and soon Robert are the Sox really hurting for power? Especially power that cant really play any positions? I dont think he is that important and if you've got an opportunity to sell him off, even for a short term improvement, its probably worth it. I'd actually rather keep Stiever than Vaughn. Nothing against the bat, its just a matter of what the Sox are going to need these next three or so years. Madrigal and Cease I see the argument against trading away very, very clearly. A player of any less caliber than Betts and I'd probably have to agree its not worth losing them just for one year. But this IS a player of Betts' caliber and like it or not that changes everything.

I am almost certain Boston would want arms, which is something the Sox need too and would rather not give up. It is possible to add a third team who really likes Vaughn to get some closer-to-the-majors arms then include Stiever and a lower level prospect. I really don't like the idea of giving up Madrigal.

If you don't think this a playoff caliber core (or close to it) then you have basically already admitted defeat.

Probably would need to be more like Vaughn, Cease and Sosa. But I'd do that.

If you believe all of this the rebuild is doomed anyways in your eyes. That is actually a pretty valid perspective and if you feel that way you clearly wouldn't want Betts, Im a bit more optimistic.

This is not Jeff Samardizja, it one of the five best players in baseball. I think many people underrate the impact he would have. Even if I looked at things glass-half empty I cant see the Sox missing the playoffs with Betts (and just a few modest free agents) and would not be even slightly surprised if they contended strongly for a title. Really in baseball if you can make the postseason you can win it all, anyone who wins their division is a World Series shot.