BRDSR

I've been thinking about the importance of winning the division, and I think it's actually more important than many here think. Win the division, get a banner. Win the division, face a lower seeded opponent, should give a higher chance of winning that first round. (Of course, if they're not well-aligned, the lower the chance, I get it.) But can you imagine what a division championship and a series win would mean to the confidence of this young team? I'm not saying it's either/or, just that winning the division should be prioritized accordingly with aligning the team "perfectly" for the post season. I actually think the Keuchel move to the IL is a good balance in that regard (assuming that it is what we think it is and he's able to go 4-6 strong starts when he returns, if necessary). A division win can't be taken away, but there are no guarantees in that first 3-game series, no matter how well-aligned the team looks on paper.

Heh, a trial lawyer by trade, actually. So maybe analytically inclined. And I showed promise in math, you know, in elementary school...but what you see is about the outer limits of my abilities with statistics.

I keep hearing about the relative strength of schedules between the Sox, Indians, and Twins, so I decided to crunch some numbers using their weighted strength of schedules. A weighted strength of schedule accounts not just for who each team plays, but how often. So two games against the Pirates is good for a team, but it may not outweigh four games against a division rival. The teams’ weighted strength of schedules are: Sox: .541 Indians: .524 Twins: .549 So, the Indians have the easiest remaining schedule, the Sox have the next easiest, and the Twins have the toughest. But over the course of 17 games, we're talking about some pretty thin margins. Now, let’s assume each team wins at a clip the average of their own winning percentage and the winning percentage of their weighted strength of schedule. At .628 facing .541, we can expect the Sox to win at a .585 clip, or 10-7 in their remaining 17 games. At .591 facing .524, we can expect the Indians to win at a .558 clip, or 9-7 in their remaining 16 games. At .600 facing .549, we can expect the Twins to win a ta .575 clip, or 9-6 in their remaining 15 games. Using those numbers, Sox beat the Twins by one game and the Indians by two to win the division! But now, let’s factor in the pitching depth issues the Sox currently have and the fact that they play 17 games while their division rivals play 16 and 15 over the remaining 17 days of the season. Let’s adjust the Sox win total down by one to factor that in, and they tie the Twins and come out a game ahead of the Indians, and surely all three are making the postseason. This is officially my prediction for how the three teams will end the season. Assuming for the sake of argument that it plays out this way, is there a tiebreaker game between the Sox and Twins for the division title and seeding? I can’t recall a scenario in the past where two teams played a tiebreaker, both of whom were guaranteed a playoff spot, so I’m thinking not. But the Internet did not yield an obvious answer for me.

The pitching injuries and need to align the rotation will bring this team back to earth for a 9-8 record. But the offense is good enough by itself to win 4 games on days that the staff has a clunker, and the staff will still have some solid games. The schedule's difficulty also contributes. I was listening to one of the podcasts, and they pointed out that Cleveland's is much easier down the stretch. 9-8 probably doesn't win us the division. I figure we need 10 or 11 wins and at least a split with Cleveland to come out ahead of them. Doable, but I'd say the chances are less than 50/50.

Last year Tim Anderson was 21st in the league with -3.7 defensive runs saved. This year, he's 18th with .5. He's shown improvement, and I don't necessarily think it's a blip because he said over and over that it was something he was going to work on, and we know from his hitting that he's capable of being successful when he focuses on improving something. But he's not above average. As for Madrigal, I think he'll iron out some of the flaws we've seen and obviously he does what he does at the plate very well. I think what's not talked about enough is how his particular skill set will not translate into a huge salary. He could be a 4-5 WAR player at a 2 WAR price.

Edit: Deleted double post.

McCann at C...interesting. It's hard to come up with the right word for Grandal's defense in the last two innings last night. "Abysmal" is the best descriptor I can come up with. Edit: Of course, some similar skills are required at 1B...

10-9 or 11-8. OP doesn't have us losing a single series the rest of the way, which seems unlikely. 10-9 gets the Sox to 36 wins (.600), which would be just an outstanding year by any preseason measuring stick.

Yeah...I mean, Keller is better than Duffy, but Keuchel is better than Cease. Probably very close in terms of a run line.

I thought Cease had quite a long leash last night. I was somewhat surprised to see him come out in the 6th, but not upset about it, since his 5th looked like his best inning. Then I was surprised he was kept in after the first double. Then of course he was out after the second double. I actually liked RR letting him come out in the 6th. I might have liked to have seen him pulled after the first double, but I'm also okay with him getting a chance to work through it. The decision was obvious after the second double. The point being: RR gave Cease a long leash last night. And he definitely shouldn't have given him a little more.

I would say yesterday was the least likely win of the series, so that's good. Feel real good about tomorrow's matchup. Sunday's is Keuchel vs. Keller, the latter with quite surprisingly good results so far this season. The pessimist in me calls that a toss-up. Still, win tonight and I feel real good about taking 3/4 or 4/4.

Obviously the rotation presents some problems, but with this lineup, all we need is a rotation that's in the top 10-15 of baseball and we're perennial pennant/WS contenders. We've got Giolito and Keuchel for the next two seasons. We'll see if Keuchel can maintain his success as he ages, but he's the type of pitcher that can. So far, Cease and Dunning seem capable of filling 2/3 remaining slots. Yes, I know Cease's advanced stats are way behind his ERA/wins, but I still think he's easily a 4/5 type pitcher. And yes, Dunning's sample size is certainly too small...but unlike Cease, I would think the advanced stats are there (haven't actually checked). Next year, Kopech and maybe Lambert compete for starts from within the organization. Sometimes I think Sox fans want a #1 and four #2 starters in the rotation. No team has that. If they signed a mid-tier starter with a proven track record over the offseason, the rotation will be above average even accounting for normal wear and tear in terms of injuries, and that's all they need it to be. (But, of course, will they?)