FriendlyNorthsider

What's particularly wild about this is that he hasn't been particularly lucky either. Most of his hits have xBAs of .700+ with EVs 98+ and his outs have been largely loud outs with multiple outs having an xBA of .400 or higher. I don't think he's fixed or anything, it's just crazy that he's been unlucky during this run.

The Carlson pick is a huge risk for a team that has had issues developing hitters but absolutely something that needs to be part of the new look Sox. Getting hitters with a low defensive ceiling and “near-MLB ready” bats just hasn’t worked. The superstar ceiling is easy to see. Absolute stud on defense. Elite arm, great movement and fluidity. I’ll be curious to see what they do to his swing. This guy has a good breakdown. The leg kick and bat wrap are going to be on the chopping block if he starts out struggling, but I don’t think I would touch it. Everything gets to the right place. His hands are so quick and smooth to the ball. Once he adds a little more to his legs and butt the power is going to be there. The adjustments he made to his swing already are night and day. He’s more efficient and the launch angle is there. Whether he can maintain that contact balance when guys are throwing high 90s with elite breaking stuff is TBD, but he has already shown his coachability and I think elite athleticism is a great indicator he’ll be okay. When I watch him vs Ethan Holliday I might like Carlson more. If he wasn’t 19 i think he could’ve went 1-1. For the Sox to be screwed by the new draft rules and still manage to get the guy that might be the best prep SS in the country is a huge break.

I can’t find any other than those listed in articles showing pretty elite Max EV. My criticism going into the year was that he swings too hard. He needs to let his lower half and wrists do the work for him. Barreling and Launch Angle will carry him. in typical FriendlyNorthsider fashion, he’s 1/21 with 1 bb 1 single and 9SO since this post.

Wolkow was always considered a project when the White Sox drafted him in the 7th in 2023 as a 17.5 year old. Hes still only 19.5 and I think all things considered he would be a top 40 pick in this years draft if he was eligible. I did a little write up earlier in the year expressing my optimism on him and the early returns are strong. When I was watching him, I saw a flawed player in the frame of a big league star. His legs are massive and he is incredibly athletic for a guy that is 6’7 240. He looks like Colston Loveland in a baseball uniform. What I didn’t like wasn’t just his swing and miss but also the pitches he was watching. He seemed to have issues with pitch recognition and at times looked overmatched. The goal for this year was to graduate A ball and to start 2026 in High A. To get a feel for how young he is, he has just 7Abs out of 250 against pitchers younger than him (6 ended in a hit). The season started off horribly. Wolkow was 9/68 (.132) in April with 1 homer and 23 strikeouts to 8 walks. It was certainly not a cause for panic as this guy is still young for the league and guys of his size tend to develop a bit slower. His .426 OPS left little room for optimism however. May was a slight improvement. He slashed .218/.297/.368 (.665 OPS) which was far more palatable, but his 30 strikeouts to 9 walks mirrored his poor performance in April’s. June has been another story. Wolkow is 19/56 (.339) with 4 homers and 14 strikeouts to 9 walks and has a 1.001 OPS. We’re seeing the K numbers get to where they need to be while the power and walks go up. He had a 123 wRC+ last year in A ball in 320 PAs so it’s hard to look at his 95 wRC+ in 250 PAs as a positive development. His .406 BABIP last year wasn’t going to be sustainable and quite frankly his 40.6% K-rate last year put a big damper on those numbers. The K rate is down to 26.8% this year and is 20.8% this month while having his best power month (.554 SLG) and walk rate (13.4%). Even in his excellent July last year, had a .553 SLG, 37.3% K Rate and 14.2% walk rate. Getting all 3 of those metrics in the right place was the goal this year, because success at the next level can’t rely on a .400+ BABIP. This month was his best as a pro outside of rookie ball and shows the bones of a great prospect on the cost of a lottery ticket. This is the exact player the Sox have been wanting to develop for years and I will be watching him as closely as any prospect in the system the rest of the year. You just don’t see 6’7 240 lefties come around often. I would have more concern about his pitch recognition if he was a 4 year SEC hitter that played high level high school ball in Florida or California. When Aaron Judge was his age he was a freshman in college with 2 homers in 187 ABs using a metal bat (.902 OPS) but still. This will take a lot of time and a lot of reps, but this month was a huge step in the right direction. The next challenge for him is lefties. Hes 9/44 (.205/.327.227) this year with 0 hrs and 19ks to 6 walks. In 2024 he was also 9/44 with 0 homers and in 2023 in rookie ball he was 1/10 with 0 homers. Thats starting to be a concerning sample. I think the Sox should do whatever they can during this season and off season to help him see more pitches against lefties. Simulated games, whatever you need to do. There are worse things than being a strong side platoon player, but he’s a guy that has time on his side to develop. Don’t platoon him until the bigs. Let the kid develop his approach and get reps.

There was so much to work with and still is to an extent. He's a 23 year old left side of the infield player who's max EV is higher than anything Freddie Freeman hit in his whole career. He used to have elite plate discipline, he's just been stuck in a huge funk for a while. Way to early to give up on a guy like this. He's younger than a lot of the guys that got drafted last year, I went through some of his games one by one and there are a hell of lot of popups. This shouldve been one of his primary focuses this offseason. Whether he needs to try a torpedo bat, adjust what pitches he swings at, adjusts where he stands in the box, his hand placement, his swing path, I really dont know. I havent seen anybody mention it anywhere and who knows if it was even put on his radar. Guys can still be great hitters that have a high pop rate, Cal Raleigh is having one of the best seasons in baseball and has the 4th worst in the league (14%). PCAs is above 12 percent. Colson's profile would also be similar in that he has a high launch angle (21%). Montgomery's hard hit percentage has gone up from 34% to 40$ this year which puts him in the same tier as PCA (42%). This is of course against AAA pitching but PCA wasn't that much higher in AAA. The high launch angle thing can work. But what does it actually look like when you take out the pop ups.

One thing I mentioned in an earlier post is Montgomery’s abnormally high infield Fly Ball percentage going into the year. Last year it was 26.7 which is very very poor. This year it’s 35.6%. Not sure what the breakdown was since before his swing change but we need to see that number drop back into the atmosphere. The highest in the MLB is Matt Chapman at 16.5%. This is just beyond bad. that said, there have been positive developments this year. His EV has gone up from 85.8 to 89.6. His max EV went from 113.8 to 115.3. The EV goes from unimpressive to right around league average. He’s in a tier with Miguel Vargas and PCA who have shown that they can be impact bats at the MLB Level. That EV is being heavily weighed down by pop ups too. The Max EV went from exceptional to borderline elite. 115.3 is almost 5 points ahead of PCA and over 5 points ahead of Vargas. He’s still young, still getting stronger, and still improving. Hes made noticeable changes and should be able to sustain this growth. He has the potential to be more than just a bat. Hes shown great plate discipline in the past but it has disappeared in the upper levels. The K% has skyrocketed and the BB% has plummeted. Since coming back from his break his BB% has gone up to 10.5% and his K% 23.7. Before the break, the BB% was 6.8% and the K% was 41.7%. His post break numbers would be very solid for a guy with his power profile. if over the next month he gets the K% under 20, keeps the BB% above 10 and gets the infield Flys somewhat under control I think he’s ready for big league pitching.

To somewhat support that, Colson's wRC+ (which is related to his competition) was 88 last year. It'll be interesting to see which version of Montgomery we see this year. The plus of last year plus fall is that the plate discipline is there and the power has been developing. The downside last year was obviously contact and strikeouts. What was interesting is that his called strike percentage actually went down from 2023 from 18% to 15%. His swing and miss % went up about four points however. That put him from a pretty elite tier for a guy with pop to 44th in the International league. His swing profile went from very good to slightly above average. His pitch selection and contact levels are very similar across the board to what Ian Happ did in the MLB last season. For what its worth, Happs swing and miss has actually improved from his AAA stint and throughout his years in the MLB. Happ and Montgomery have pretty similar exit velocities and LD/GB/FB percentages. Colson had a slight LD% advantage, but had a ridiculously high 26.7% Infield Flyball rate. The infield fly rate stat is really interesting as a side note. 26.7% is INSANELY high. The average in the bigs is around 7% and the highest last year was 20.7%. In 2023 Colson was at around 18 % which still poor. If people write off Colson's .281 BABIP as just unlucky, I think they'd be mistaken. Guys with high IFFB rates like Edwin Encarnacion (14.5%) tend to have really low BABIPS. Usually, guys with more IFFBs have a high fly ball rate but that's not the case with Colson. He hits plenty of line drives and grounder so I don't really think it's a launch angle issue. Most infield fly balls happen on high and inside pitches (mostly cutters and four seams). I don't have his heat map, so Im not positive that location is the issue but I think its something to look into. The Sox need to find what the issue is before opposing scouts do otherwise he is going to have even more trouble. The good thing is that I think if they can figure out what the issue is, there is a ton of room for growth. Isaac Paredes who lead the league last year was also dreadful at this in the minors (mid 20s to low 30s). He never really figured it out. I cant really find many examples of guys turning their IFFB around drastically but thats mainly out of laziness. If I were his hitting coach I would clip together every IFFB to see what his issue is. Does he need to lay off some inside pitches? Adjust himself in the batters box? Shorten up the swing? I really don't know what the fix is if there is one. Guys with high IFFB rates can still be great hitters, but mainly they need to be power guys to be stars. Their BABIPs live in the mid to upper .200s. Corbin Carroll went from 11.7% in 2023 to 20.2% in 2024 and his BABIP cratered. If he can get the rate down to the bad range (15-16%) you are looking at a really solid hitter. I'll be really interested to follow this over the year

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chase-meidroth/sa3020011/stats?position=2B/3B/SS Those three year projections would indicate he's the second baseman of the future. The only reason he shouldnt be the starting second baseman is if they think he can be the starting shortstop. His hit tool will get him Madrigal comparisons but he should be a little better around the edges as he doesnt have Madrigals dead arm and a complete lack of power. Most importantly, his elite contact levels arent a result of making contact at a pitch outside of the zone every 0-0 or 0-1 count. He can actually take walks and Fangraphs projects him as a guy that'll be around a .360 OBP in the bigs, If the power or speed is better than expected, he'll be a guy.

A couple moves I’d like to see: sign Michael Lorenzen as a 2-way: not sure this will work man this would be fun. The NYT just dropped an article about this, and I would love the upside for the Sox. If you offer the ABs maybe you can get a team option for the second year. Worst case if hitting doesn’t work out he’s probably the best pitcher on the staff. sign Ha-Seong Kim to a 1 year deal. If Kim doesn’t get the multi year deal he’s looking for, the Sox would be a great fit for a one year prove-it, recovery deal. The Sox medical staff might not be the idea fit, but most contenders would rather not pay Kim to rehab for the first few months of the year. Worst case, the Sox spend 12M on a guy who never ends up getting it together this year. Best case, he returns to normal and you have a huge trade chip in July. You’d be paying 6M for a chance to get some very good prospects. The guy was worth 10.7 WAR in 2022-23.

I think the Sox will be at least a top 3 farm by summer 2026 depending on graduations. On top of this group, they’ll get a haul for Robert. Personally I’d prefer they get young MLB guys like a package of CES, Noelvi Marte plus from the Reds, but regardless it’ll be a haul. theyll get a nice player at 10 this year and at least a top 4 pick in 2026 which seems to be stacked with elite prep bats. The big factor this year will be the emergence of Colson, the turnaround of Jacob Gonzalez, and an explosion from Wolkow. I really believe in Wolkow. The swing and miss is a monster concern obviously. 158 strikeouts in 337 bats is bad. But he’s turning 19 in January and was a super raw player out of Downers grove. He’s learning on the fly and shows flashes of dominance. when Judge was 18, he was still playing high school ball. At 19 he had 2 homers and 42ks in 187Abs in the WAC. Another 6’7 stud James Wood had 124ks in 323 ABs in AA at 20. He struck out only 42 times in 190 AAA ABs the next year. Spencer Jones (6’6) struck out 200 times in AA in his age 23 season in 482 ABs. My point isn’t that he’ll be like those guys. Mainly, that the Ks are going to be a thing and that he will probably never lose the swing and miss in his game. Plate Discipline and pitch recognition can develop. He led Kanny in Homers at 18 years old when I watch him hit a few things stick out to me. 1.) his pitch recognition isn’t there yet. He watches a lot of good knee high fastballs and looks fooled on breaking stuff. It’s not that he’s chasing stuff, he just doesn’t look like he has a plan at the plate sometimes. If he was 23 with 3 years of college and 2 of pro ball I’d be worried. But we’re a long way from that. I2.) he is swinging too hard. His head goes flying. The bat speed and exit velos are probably great, but he’s swinging like he isn’t built like a tank. 3.) the swing is beautiful. Yeah it’s too hard, but watch the cut at 3:10. He keeps his head down and lets his strength and launch angle do the work and hits the ball a mile. 4.) he’s built like a major leaguer already. Scratch that built like a tight end. His legs are massive and he looks comfortable in his size. Really rooting for the kid this year. As MJ said, the ceiling is the roof

There is not a more white sox name than Mike Sirota. Mike Sirotka -> Mike Soroka -> Mike Sirota???

I think i'm a lot more positive than most on her because I like the Sox and dont love them. I love the Cubs and hate them if that makes sense. It's easier to see the positives without emotional attachment. Somewhere in the past year I made a comment that the goal for the Sox should be to acquire guys that were boxed out of MLB ABS. Pham and DeJong fit that and Korey Lee fit that last year. Thorpe is a legit prospect, but is another guy that you can give MLB work too without the pressure of Wins and Losses The rebuild has been solid so far. Quero and Thorpe are great gets and part of the next good Sox team. Ky Bush has some potential as well. Iriarte is holding his own in AA and Zavala is a teenager (for one more day) in A+ holding his own as well. For the rentals it cost, Nastrini was an intriguing add. For the 2024 deadline, I think if guys like Crochet, Robert, and even Kopech are trading the goal is value. Get the players you love whether they are 23 and knocking at the door or 18 year olds that fit what you like to do. Those trades, if they happen are your Sale and Eaton trades, 2 of the 3 bullets are still in the chamber and there is already a lot to show for the rebuild. Fedde also has a ton of value if hes going to be moved. I dont think its fair to suggest it was a good idea to move Eloy before. His value has tanked lower, but selling him at even value wasnt the move either. There is no reason to move off money at this point (jerry would probably disagree). Benintendi was a disaster but that's what happens at that level of free agency and at this point, you hold him until hes blocking somebody. The last draft is looking solid. Gonzalez isnt having a great year, but Wolkow is surpassing a lot of expectations. Grant Taylor looks like a hit and Keener might be a guy. The player taken at 5 today is huge. They cant mess that up like they did with Madrigal and Vaughn. When it comes to lower end rentals like Pham and DeJong, I'd love to see them go after some post-hype guys that are blocked. If there is someone that is either hurt this year or that is completely blocked/struggling Id love to see that move. I'd rather have Thorpe than Busch, but Busch is the type of player that the Sox should be going for. You're obviosuly not getting him for someone like DeJong, but a guy in the AAAA bubble would be my target. The biggest advantage the Sox have is that Wins and Losses dont matter and that there is very few players blocking ABs at the major league level. The more at bats and innings thrown by a guy that could be here in 2026 the better. Take advantage of desperation and 40 man crunch.

It's getting kind of depressing in here so I wanted to highlight some bright spots in the org. Crochet is a building block. 31 Ks in 4 starts isnt a fluke. We all knew this one. If Andrew Vaughn was hitting in the way Gavin Sheets is hitting .270/.391/.541 we would be pumped. Gavin is only a year older than Vaughn so just pretend they switched bodies. Nastrini looked awesome today, He didnt have the best results in AAA, but 13ks in 7 innings is something Colson Montgomery homered in two of his last three games. Colson's pop is on the top of my watch list this year. We will see what Cannon does tomorrow but hes had a solid showing in AAA so far (2.79 ERA over 9.2 innings) Brooks Baldwin was an 80 Grade name and is a 23 year old in AA with a .985 OPS in 26 ABs and has more BBs than SOs. Hes a 2022 12th rounder who had an .800 OPS across A ball last year Wilfred Veras is a 21 year old at AA Birmingham with a .941 OPS in 34 ABs. He hasn't taken a walk yet but is 12 for 20 with 2 homers when he puts the bat on the ball. Edgar Quero (also in AA) has 4 homers already this year in 25 ABs. Hes a catcher that was acquired in the Gio/Reylo trade. Hes 21 years old and is a legit top 50-100 prospect that is MASHING. Plus he's Cuban which is fun. Ky Bush was acquired with Quero and had a very solid start to open the year in AA (5IP 1 ER 7K) Drew Thorpe who was a huge part of the Cease return has dominated in AA. He's a 23 year old 2022 draftee that has a .82 ERA in 11 innings with 15Ks to 2 walks. Him and Schultz (getting to him later) are the two most important pitching propsects and they are dealing. Jairo Iriarte (22 years old) was also acquired in the Cease trade and has also been dominant in AA. He hasn't given up an earned run in 8 innings and has struck out 11. Last years first rounder Jacob Gonzalez is about the only guy hitting in Winston Salem (A+) but he's the most important by far. Hes slashed .281/.410.438 in 39 PAs. He also has 6 BBs to 5ks. I imagine he'll work his way up to AA by the end of the year. Noah Schultz is a guy. He's had 17 ks and 2 bbs in 8IP in A ball. The 4.50 ERA is deceptive and I think he'll work his way up faster than Gonzalez. 2023 6th Round Lucas Gordon has dominated in Kannapolis so far this year. In two starts he has 16ks and 3bbs in 11IP. He was dominant last year but the walk rate was way too high. If he continues on this path he'll be a legit prospect. A college pitcher should probably be succeeding in A ball but hes a lefty that generates K's and that always plays. He's not a Fangraphs top 30 guy and his South Side Sox prospect #59 due to bullpen risk/lack of upside but hes doing everything that can be asked of him so far. Pitching wise the Sox systems future could be a lot worse than Crochet/Nastrini/Cannon/Shultz/Thorpe/Iriarte/Bush. Hitting wise Colson is coming around and Quero is a rising prospect. If Gonzalez keeps hitting he'll be grouped with those two before the end of summer. This is far from an exhaustive list of quality propsects the sox have but some guys have had rough starts or are hurt to start the year,

For what it’s worth the Cubs were in a 40 man jam and didn’t really want to trade Horn. Hes been electric in spring training this year but would be a bit of a risk to keep over someone like Cuas or Riley Thompson. There was talk of a Keegan Thompson trade but that didn’t materialize. I was looking forward to seeing horn pitch this year. edit: he also added a sweeper like every other pitcher in the cubs org. He’s probably going to be a 7th inning guy for the Sox this year but was sometimes used as a multi-inning guy in AAA last year. Lots of upside in return for a guy that was lost in the Sox org in Thompson

The Diamondbacks chose to stick with McCarthy and feel that they can fix Menas fastball. Seems like a nice opportunistic buy for the Sox. These trades are exactly what I wanted the Sox to do. They should be taking shots on the 25-26 year old players that are boxed out of big league ABs on other teams. The goal for the 2024 Sox should be to have as many ABs as possible from guys on the 2026 Sox. As for pitching, that’s another problem for another day. If you don’t think Mena is a guy don’t keep him just because you have a weakness in pitching. I think this might increase the likelihood that the Sox focus on a starter as the building block for the Cease trade