Top 100 Update
by Josh Boyd
June 29, 2003
Back in March we introduced our 14th annual Top 100 Prospects list, led by Rangers third baseman Mark Teixeira, Devil Rays outfielder Rocco Baldelli and Mets shortstop Jose Reyes. Those three prospects have graduated to the majors, already starting to fulfill their potential as rookies. Here we’ll provide a midseason progress report on this year’s class. We’ve broken them into seven categories, including a look at 10 prospects who weren’t on the Top 100 but boosted their stock with strong first-half performances.
Graduated To The Majors
While Teixeira edged Baldelli for the No. 1 spot on the Top 100 this year, it’s Baldelli who earned an everyday job. The hot hitting of Hank Blalock relegated Teixeira to a reserve role, picking up at-bats between first base, third base, left field, right field and DH. Jose Reyes wasn’t promoted until June when incumbent shortstop Rey Sanchez went down with an injury, but the Mets hope Reyes’ speed atop the lineup can liven up an otherwise uninspiring roster. Dontrelle Willis’ big league arrival was hastened by injuries to Marlins starters A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett. Willis won five of his first six decisions. The major league initiation wasn’t as kind for the likes of Brandon Phillips, Hee Seop Choi, Aaron Cook, Marlon Byrd and John Patterson.
1. Mark Teixeira, 3b, Rangers
2. Rocco Baldelli, of, Devil Rays
3. Jose Reyes, ss, Mets
5. Jesse Foppert, rhp, Giants
7. Brandon Phillips, 2b/ss, Indians
8. Hideki Matsui, of, Yankees
10. Francisco Rodriguez, rhp, Angels
12. Miguel Cabrera, 3b, Marlins
14. Justin Morneau, 1b, Twins
16. Victor Martinez, c, Indians
20. Jeremy Bonderman, rhp, Tigers
22. Hee Seop Choi, 1b, Cubs
27. Rafael Soriano, rhp, Mariners
32. Colby Lewis, rhp, Rangers
41. Aaron Cook, rhp, Rockies
42. Franklyn German, rhp, Tigers
43. Dontrelle Willis, lhp, Marlins
44. Xavier Nady, of, Padres
50. Jerome Williams, rhp, Giants
55. Juan Rivera, of, Yankees
63. Marlon Byrd, of, Phillies
64. Kurt Ainsworth, rhp, Giants
65. Lyle Overbay, 1b, Diamondbacks
74. Dewon Brazelton, rhp, Devil Rays
79. John Patterson, rhp, Diamondbacks
87. Wily Mo Pena, of, Reds
94. Jayson Werth, of/c, Blue Jays
98. Seth McClung, rhp, Devil Rays
Second-Half Comeback?
Early-season slumps by Jason Stokes, Adrian Gonzalez and James Loney can be attributed to wrist injuries each suffered at the end of the 2002 season. While all three have shown signs of coming around at the plate, their power was affected, which is typical with wrist injuries. After opening the season as the Twins right fielder, Michael Cuddyer found himself back in Triple-A and at second base, his fourth different position since being drafted as a shortstop in 1997. Hanley Ramirez received more attention for his continued run-ins due to his attitude than for his promise on the field, a trend the Red Sox expect to change after the break.
15. Jason Stokes, 1b, Marlins
17. Michael Cuddyer, of/2b, Twins
19. Hanley Ramirez, ss, Red Sox
28. Joe Borchard, of, White Sox
31. Adrian Gonzalez, 1b, Marlins
34. James Loney, 1b, Dodgers
46. Travis Hafner, 1b, Indians
59. Mike Gosling, lhp, Diamondbacks
61. Shin-Soo Choo, of, Mariners
69. Bobby Basham, rhp, Reds
71. Josh Karp, rhp, Expos
82. Todd Linden, of, Giants
96. Mike Hinckley, lhp, Expos
Hurt By Injuries
Of this group, only Chris Gruler (shoulder) and Ben Kozlowski (elbow) are expected to miss the entire season. Casey Kotchman, who has become a perennial victim of nagging injuries, was on his way to securing a spot among the Top 10 prospects when he tore his hamstring. Brad Nelson, another Class A California League first baseman with a high ceiling, was missing from High Desert’s lineup since the second week of the season with a wrist injury. Jonathan Figueroa wasn’t sharp in returning from an offseason shoulder injury, though no structural damage had been detected by team doctors.
13. Casey Kotchman, 1b, Angels
23. Brad Nelson, 1b, Brewers
30. Cliff Lee, lhp, Indians
35. Jonathan Figueroa, lhp, Dodgers
39. Chris Snelling, of, Mariners
47. Angel Guzman, rhp, Cubs
53. Andy Sisco, lhp, Cubs
60. Bobby Jenks, rhp, Angels
77. Chris Gruler, rhp, Reds
80. Ben Kozlowski, lhp, Rangers
83. Francisco Liriano, lhp, Giants
90. Ben Hendrickson, rhp, Brewers
Shooting Up The Charts
While he was already highly regarded, Miguel Cabrera’s stock was on the rise and, given his torrid first half in Double-A, the Marlins were considering trading incumbent third baseman Mike Lowell to pave the way. Rich Harden opened the season with 13 perfect innings in Double-A Midland, prompting a quick promotion to Triple-A Sacramento. Zack Greinke hadn’t been fazed by heading straight to the high Class A level. In fact, he overmatched the competition, posting the second-lowest ERA in the minors.
24. John VanBenschoten, rhp, Pirates
29. Rich Harden, rhp, Athletics
48. Jeff Mathis, c, Angels
51. Ervin Santana, rhp, Angels
54. Zack Greinke, rhp, Royals
56. Mike Jones, rhp, Brewers
70. Jeremy Guthrie, rhp, Indians
73. Kris Honel, rhp, White Sox
75. David Wright, 3b, Mets
76. Clint Nageotte, rhp, Mariners
85. Laynce Nix, of, Rangers
91. Corey Hart, 3b/1b, Brewers
93. Chin-Hui Tsao, rhp, Rockies
95. Jeff Francoeur, of, Braves
97. Jason Arnold, rhp, Blue Jays
99. Edwin Jackson, rhp, Dodgers
Stock Crash
The Josh Hamilton saga has taken many twists and turns over the last three years. After playing just 83 games between 2001-2002, he disappeared from Devil Rays camp this spring, and after an attempt at a comeback, the 22-year-old decided to take the rest of the season off to deal with unspecified personal issues. Wilson Betemit, once on the verge of following Rafael Furcal into the Braves lineup, stumbled in Triple-A the last two seasons. His tools are still worthy of Top 100 status, but his performance just hasn’t caught up. Mark Phillips, dealt from the Padres to the Yankees as part of the Rondell White trade, has built a reputation as a slow starter, but his six plus ERA and 33 walks in 46 innings was a major red flag.
33. Josh Hamilton, of, Devil Rays
49. Wilson Betemit, 3b, Braves
84. Mark Phillips, lhp, Yankees
92. Jon Rauch, rhp, White Sox
100. Nic Jackson, of, Cubs
Holding Their Ground
Joe Mauer and Gavin Floyd, the only two prospects from the Top 10 not to break into the majors this season, started slow in the high Class A Florida State League before rebounding. Mauer ranked third in the circuit in hitting despite carrying a .257 average through the first three weeks of the season. Floyd was fifth in ERA after dropping his first three starts. Scott Kazmir had dominated despite being limited by strict pitch counts.
4. Joe Mauer, c, Twins
9. Gavin Floyd, rhp, Phillies
11. Scott Kazmir, lhp, Mets
18. Adam Wainwright, rhp, Braves
21. B.J. Upton, ss, Devil Rays
25. Sean Burnett, lhp, Pirates
26. Scott Hairston, 2b, Diamondbacks
36. Dustin McGowan, rhp, Blue Jays
37. Michael Restovich, of, Twins
38. Jose Lopez, ss, Mariners
40. Andy Marte, 3b, Braves
45. Aaron Heilman, rhp, Mets
52. Bryan Bullington, rhp, Pirates
57. Khalil Greene, ss, Padres
58. Bubba Nelson, rhp, Braves
62. Clint Everts, rhp, Expos
66. Justin Huber, c, Mets
67. John Buck, c, Astros
68. Macay McBride, lhp, Braves
72. Felix Pie, of, Cubs
78. Prince Fielder, 1b, Brewers
81. Chase Utley, 3b/2b, Phillies
86. Jose Castillo, ss, Pirates
88. Taylor Buchholz, rhp, Phillies
89. Donald Levinski, rhp, Marlins
Moving Onto The Charts
Brandon Claussen’s speedy recovery from Tommy John surgery put him back on track to reach the big leagues. Franklin Gutierrez turned raw tools into performance, as he led the Florida State League with 15 home runs, already three more than his previous season high. Cole Hamels had been Kazmir-esque after starting the year in extended spring training. J.J. Hardy has improved at each level as he rode the fast track toward Milwaukee. Righthanders Dan Haren and Blake Hawksworth provided hope for a barren Cardinals system, though Hawksworth was hampered by a sore arm. Alexis Rios took to the Blue Jays plate discipline teachings, turning his raw tools into production.
Brandon Claussen, lhp, Yankees
Franklin Gutierrez, of, Dodgers
Cole Hamels, lhp, Phillies
J.J. Hardy, ss, Brewers
Dan Haren, rhp, Cardinals
Blake Hawksworth, rhp, Cardinals
Alexis Rios, of, Blue Jays
Sergio Santos, ss, Diamondbacks
Grady Sizemore, of, Indians
Merkin Valdez, rhp, Giants