Chisoxfn

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Aug 7, 2014 -> 01:57 PM) This has certainly hit a sore spot with you. There you go. No I think it is piss poor. you think you are better then someone else that is an Illinois fan because you went there and they went elsewhere. A fan is a fan? If they follow their team and aren't bandwagon hopping, they are no different then you. Not at all. But go ahead and pretend you are some elitist.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Aug 7, 2014 -> 01:42 PM) Props to you Wite this is a solid list. I just think you are crazy for making Rondon a top ten prospect when his ceiling is Brendan Ryan. Keith Law hinted that he has Simmons like skills at shortstop. I'm not saying he said he'd be Simmons just saying this guy has elite defensive skills and at a premium position, that adds value. Ryan also had a few 3 and 4 WAR seasons and has stuck around the league for quite some time.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 7, 2014 -> 01:46 PM) The Chicago Bears are also a professional sports franchise, not a university. Their job is to play sports and entertain fans. When you were in high school, did you root for the sports teams from the high school across town because their school was bigger than yours? Little different. College football is a huge huge business. High school is not. You can watch a college football team from anywhere and while the athletes aren't professionals, they are extremely close and the product is a multi billion dollar business with games televised all over the place. I think that is a pretty poor comparison. If you had to go to a school to be a fan of the team, well then, I guess I'm not even allowed to watch college football. Pretty pathetic. I didn't pick my school because of their sports teams, I picked it for what I was going to get my degree, cost, etc. Has no impact on the allegiance of who I follow and cheer for and makes me no less of a fan then someone who graduated from that school.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 7, 2014 -> 01:30 PM) The same reason the Cubs brought up Baez in August. Because you can't simply go on September results to determine if he (Semien) should be a projected starter coming into 2015 season...45+ games gives you a far bigger sample size than 25 games. (Not to mention he's a natural SS, so he needs to show how well he can play 2B at the major league level, as they might move Russell to 2B and Baez to 3B or a corner OF spot, or keep Bryant at 3B or move him to RF). We've seen guys like Fields or Morel look good in September and then POOF it disappears the next season when it really counts and the weather's cold. If a guy can play passable at SS, he'll be able to play 2B. Might have to work on certain nuances but he can play.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Aug 7, 2014 -> 01:30 PM) I think we are watching and talking about two different people Pitching, defense, pure hitting (guys who can handle a stick), and speed are my four favorite parts of a baseball game. When I watch games, I'm usually extremely focused on what guys are doing, the jumps they get, the range they display, the balls they get to and the balls they don't, and having watched as much as I have, Gordon's range is just simply not very good, when compared to other 2nd basemen and it has declined over the past few years. I used to think Beckham was one of the 2 or 3 best defensive 2nd baseman in the game but I think people who have that opinion or even that he is above average are completely wrong and going off of past performance. I also believe the stats as much as I question a lot of statistics, back up what my eyes are telling me as well. I could live with someone saying he is average to slightly below average. I don't think he's the worst defensive player in the game, but at average to slightly below average (and that would be lower based purely on range but is bumped up due to his strong arm and an above average ability to turn the DP) when combined with a weak bat, you are talking about one of the worst starting 2nd basemen in baseball.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 7, 2014 -> 01:21 PM) I fully agree; I've long thought BAPIP, while interesting, is a pretty overrated / overrelied upon stat. I'm sure 20 years ago people would have been talking about Tony Gwynn's BAPIP as being unsustainable. I think you'd be better focusing on line drive rates and actual indicators of how a guy is hitting. If I were in the majors, I'd have a BAPIP of 0 (this is assuming I actually was able to put a ball in play)...does that mean I'm the most unlucky hitter in the world and should revert to some better number; no, absolutely not; It would be because I am a BAD hitter. I understand BAPIP a bit when it comes to looking at larger sample sizes of players who have proven themselves to see if potentially they've hit a string of bad luck, but again, I could just as easily focus on average and line drive rates vs. historic line drive rates of an individual player and probably get a more meaningful result. By the way, I do agree with some of the other points you bring up regarding Beckham and Semien being separated and just because we don't see a future in Beckham doesn't mean we just plug and play Semien. Semien was up a little earlier then expected and clearly was in a little over his head and went back to AAA with some more things to work on. While I want him up and would like him to get valuable at bats and more importantly allow our front office and scouts to get a better view and better idea as to whether we can count on Marcus, the fact that we have other internal options if Marcus struggles, probably allows the franchise to be more conservative in waiting because there are some other guys who have nice tools and could work at the position as well (Sanchez / Micah). I happen to think Semien will play at this level but again, nothing wrong with letting him get his bumps and continue to work on his game at AAA, plus to your point, he isn't lighting it up and I do really think there is something to be said about bringing a guy up when he is confident. Also by letting him go through the struggles in the majors, then go down to the minors and make adjustments and actually succeed based upon those adjustments (hopefully that happens and we see a nice hot streak), he will also have been able to pass a big mental hurdle which will be so important in his early major league development. You also had another great point on not having an entirely new middle infield and I think that is probably a very underrated reason why Alexei stays around (not to mention the fact that he's signed to a fair price and is one of the leagues top shortstops). I also don't see Semien, Johnson or Sanchez playing well enough defensively to fit in at SS. Rondon is the guy we have and he's still a ways a way (and again very raw; I'm probably the highest on him on this entire site and it is because I believe you have to have strong up the middle defense in this current era of baseball and that up the middle defense focuses more significantly on SS / CF / C.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 7, 2014 -> 01:17 PM) I still like him, and admit he's been pretty awful the past 40 games or so, but agree with the BAPIP premise. It's easy to say someone has been unlucky looking at fangraphs, andBeckham has hit some balls hard and has been a victim of weather conditions, but in this slump, and I'm his biggest fan, he pretty much is hitting what he deserves BABIP-wise. On the other hand, unless you have seen Semien's ABs, saying his low BABIP is a product of extreme unluck is speculation. I fully agree; I've long thought BAPIP, while interesting, is a pretty overrated / overrelied upon stat. I'm sure 20 years ago people would have been talking about Tony Gwynn's BAPIP as being unsustainable. I think you'd be better focusing on line drive rates and actual indicators of how a guy is hitting. If I were in the majors, I'd have a BAPIP of 0 (this is assuming I actually was able to put a ball in play)...does that mean I'm the most unlucky hitter in the world and should revert to some better number; no, absolutely not; It would be because I am a BAD hitter. I understand BAPIP a bit when it comes to looking at larger sample sizes of players who have proven themselves to see if potentially they've hit a string of bad luck, but again, I could just as easily focus on average and line drive rates vs. historic line drive rates of an individual player and probably get a more meaningful result.

QUOTE (CanOfCorn @ Aug 7, 2014 -> 01:13 PM) Bad hitter...yes. Bad player? Not so sure. He's still a good fielder. And I"m not going to comment on his baserunning since...well...he's hardly on base. He's really not a good fielder. Range is extremely limited. Only thing he does good defensively is leverage his shortstop arm on double plays.

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Aug 7, 2014 -> 01:09 PM) Exactly. They give two s***s about their "actual" school. Again, it doesn't matter. You can be just as big of a fan of a team that you didn't go to their school then vice versa. Its a flat out stupid argument.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 7, 2014 -> 12:49 PM) I do believe Beckham has been unlucky to some extent - he's normally a much better hitter than he's been this year, even if the normal hitter is a rather poor one. Normalizing his line based on his career BABIP, without using any actual fancy or complicated calculations, you would figure his line would be around his career average of .245/.308/.376, give or take here or there. It's not bad, but it's not good, and Beckham's about to get even more expensive. Given the very large sample size we have of Beckham and the lack of improvement over the duration of that time frame, I think it's time to get someone else a shot to see if they can stake their claim at the position. His line drive rate is down and his ground ball rate is up. Those are not things you want to see in a hitter. Beckham seems like a good guy, but I don't think he should be a full time starter any longer. You know...when you hit the ball weakly, you are going to have a bad BAPIP. Simple as that. He's a bad hitter and a bad player.

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Aug 7, 2014 -> 10:28 AM) Another great thing about OSU fans is almost every one you meet didn't actually go to OSU. Which shouldn't matter. If you are a fan, you are a fan. Is a fan of the Bears less of a fan because they aren't from Chicago? Same with the White Sox or anyone else?

I think the Cavs are better then those Heat teams but I also think some of the other top teams in the league are better too, including the Bulls, then the league was those years the Heat won titles.

Good for Cleveland. Now lets beat them!!! Going to be a real fun rivalry.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Aug 6, 2014 -> 08:03 AM) It reminds me of my argument with Jason about Chris Young in the FutureSox thread a few years ago. I was right at the end (sorry Jason ), but even he showed better strike zone judgement. But alas, we'll have to wait and see. I can easily see Theo dangling him in a deal for pitching in the off season though. Young did put up back to back 5+ WAR seasons, which is pretty good and then a 3rd season of a 2 WAR, which was still serviceable. He faded fast after he left Arizona and clearly didn't put all of the offensive game together but there was still value in Chris Young, more so then a lot of prospects. Makes me feel old that he's 30, haha.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 6, 2014 -> 07:05 AM) But there was no strawman. You just imagined one. Again. All I said was if Courtney Hawkins puts up Javier Baez numbers next year in AAA, the posters here would want to see him in Chicago, and no one would be saying he's a bust waiting to happen. I agree; I think we'd all be aware of what the potential flaw in his game would be that would lead him to being a bust, but we absolutely would want to see him play for the big league club and there is no denying the potential upside. Baez is clearly a better prospect then Hawkins too.

QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Aug 6, 2014 -> 09:09 AM) To go along with their bad QB situation. I hope Hoyer works out for them he looked good in his small sample last year before he got injured, because I don't believe in "johnny football" being a franchise QB. I'd believe in Johnny football a lot more then I'd believe in an undrafted QB who was pretty mediocre at Michigan State that is a 28 year old. Crazy things can happen from time to time but Manziel is pretty electric on the football field and I think he's going to be in this league for a while (pending injuries). Not saying he's going to be a perennial probowler but he's going to be a long-term starter, imo, and likely a very exciting player to watch throughout his career. Again the big if is whether he can actually stay on the field as I think he has a pretty high injury risk.

I laughed pretty hard when I saw MLB network cut in to Dunn pitching.

To be frank, given where we are at in the season, if he's healthy and able to play at AAA, then once we think his timing is back and he's capable, its time for him to play with the big league club.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 03:29 PM) Bears worked out Santonio Holmes. If he's recovered from his injury, I like that move.

I should stop doubting Balta cause this is another one he was right on and I was wrong on.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 02:10 PM) Yeah, I am glad too. It's hard to sit here and say that Johnson would have dropped such a great deal and Davidson wouldn't even though both have had incredibly disappointing years, but Johnson's velocity is down like 2-3 MPH from last year and his command is way worse. Both of them dropped significantly from my personal opening day rankings. To be frank, while I listed Davidson in the top 10, I struggle even with that. I have zero faith in him panning out. That lack of faith is largely driven by the Sox inability to fix any of our young position players issues around strikeouts.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 02:01 PM) Below Adams, above the other two, for me. But honestly, he's such a weird case, I'm glad I didn't have to think about it. Agreed. If it was purely numbers based, I probably would have him higher then I just posted, however, when your stuff has dissipated, I get a lot more concerned.

QUOTE (joejoedairy @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 01:03 PM) I know Eric Johnson has graduated, but I was wondering where in the top 25 you all thought he would rank if he was still eligible after this season. Particularly in relationship to Adams/Montas/Danish. Thanks I'd probably rate him below all of them.

QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 11:41 AM) Does the waver wire award a player based on worst record AND league? As in, did it take that nobody in the AL claimed him or is it different from the normal DFA situation? Yep; Evidently no one in the AL put a claim in on him. I don't really get it. He's been extremely effective out of the pen this year and $3.5M next year for him doesn't seem that bad.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 11:33 AM) I looked at the FIP numbers, and then I looked at the White Sox current ERAs. It was pretty simple it wasn't accurate. How come you don't give Chisoxfn any grief for what he posted about FIP? I also doubt Hahn used FIP as the key to building his bullpen. Like you, since FIP can fluctuate, I don't fully grasp why it is that great of a predictor of the future either? It would seem to me that future predictions can be largely based upon where a player is in the process, whether you can expect upward improvements or regressions based upon physical limitations, continued development, etc. It would seem to me, more then anything, that FIP is a predictor of what your current performance should have been indicative of, based upon a scan of other statistics available (basically trying to reduce the "luck" equation and statistical anomalies from the equation). I would think I would focus on stuff and then look at statistics and then more or less look at advanced stats to tell me is there something out (an outlier) there that might give me cause for pause. e.g., wow, judging by this, he was extremely lucky due to X, Y, and Z). I think if you used FIP to just say it is a predictor of future production, you would be missing out on a whole lot of other variables. I think I could look at WHIP, Opponents BAPIP, K/9 and line drive rates and get an extrmely good picture of what their current performance was and then looking at stuff figure out where I think their arch is, what their flaws are, etc, to come up with whether something is a good / bad fit. However, again, I don't see how FIP is any better of a predictor then any of the other stuff, in fact, I think the other stuff combined is a much better way of viewing performance and can give you a much more holistic view.